Wednesday, 31 December 2008
After the Christmas Day ratings loss I vowed not to bet on TV ratings. Then I spotted the Celebrity Big Brother bet to the left on Paddy Power's website.
Big Brother Celebrity Hijack peaked at 3.21 million in 2008. Celebrity Big Brother peaked at 7.32 million in 2007. In 2006 it was 6.68 million and 2005 it was 5.4 million.
I personally think the ratings will not surpass 7 million this year. I might have a tickle at 6-7 million viewers - not much though!
Tuesday, 30 December 2008
1) Play the long game more - I have picked the winner early in many shows but lost profit to being an inveterate fiddler. Big Brother in particular is bad, locking in piddling profits on Betfair instead of playing the long game.
2) Research more - with TV betting you can know at least as much as the bookies.
3) Back my methods - if some analysis shows results that really don't make any sense, I don't always back it. I should, the contrarian approach pays dividends.
4) Bigger stakes - Don't tell the missus!
5) Be quicker to get infomation - With shows like IACGMOOH and Big Brother (very interesting to see what will happen in the summer) shying away from the expense and potential loss of footage control of twenty four coverage. This means more infomation is coming from the press via offical releases and un/official leaks. I have recently set up RSS feeds and Google Alerts directing infomation to me as soon as it made public. In only few days it has been very effective. I intend to direct my TV betting news feed page to this site which should help you all as well as me (just working out how to do it most effectively as it currently sends me a lot of guff as well).
6) Look for new sources of infomation - Obvious really. I am currently looking at Twitter which I think could be a very useful source in the near future.
7) Continue with the site. I think it has improved my TV betting a lot so far (f***ing TV ratings betting excepted - I am still annoyed with myself).
8) Expand the site - I want a TV betting database and News Feed for starters.
9) Audit my methods - I hate the word audit but I need to find out what works and what doesn't.
10) Win more. A lot more.
Monday, 29 December 2008
You must get the best odds you can (as long as the bookie is solvent and trustworthy). This applies to betting generally and is non-negotiable. The only caveat being if a company limits your stake size.
Seven to go!
Friday, 26 December 2008
TV betting is a lot less reliant on statistics than other forms of betting. There is not a lot out there at the moment. This makes it difficult for the market makers to compile accurate odds. Usually they just follow Betfairs odds, but that can be a case of compounding mistakes. Betfairs markets are often obviously wrong as well.
So how to find the ricks in the market? Research. Youtube, Facebook, Yahoo Pipes (a current work in progress), Polls, Google, Twitter, Trendrr, Media Outlets, TellyBetting! Pro-punters will study horse form for hours using highly advanced methods so why not TV punters.
Once you have research, try to apply numbers to it. That way you will spot any trends early and this is the key to making regular, reliable money.
So, go hit the books!
First up, the graph on the left shows viewing share per channel. This in my opinion narrows it down to BBC1 shows only - goodbye Coronation Street and Dancing On Ice.
This leaves us realistically with Eastenders, Doctor Who, Strictly Come Dancing: Christmas Special and The Royle Family.
Doctor Who is a dark horse and came close last year - missing out by less than a million. I think it will come second this year and is possibly worth a cover bet. Strictly Come Dancing never attracts big, big audiences with it's 'specials' and is worth a lay on Betfair.
The Royle Family is second favourite in the betting. I think it is on 1/2 hour too late and possibly it is a show whose time has passed and is no longer attractive to all and sundry. Another lay.
This leaves us with 'Enders. It has topped four out of the last five years (Vicar of Dibley being exception) and suspect it will top again. The odds are not brilliant but good enough. Try to use a company which lumps both shows as one (eg Betfair).
Christmas Day 2008 Overnight Ratings
1 …. 14.3 (53.3%) …. Wallace and Gromit: A Matter of Loaf and Death (20:30) BBC1
2 …. 11.7 (50.5%) …. Doctor Who (18:00) BBC1
3 …. 11.5 (44.9%) …. EastEnders (21:00) BBC1
4 …. 10.0 (41.7%) …. The Royle Family (21:30) BBC1
5 …. 9.9 (40.6%) …. EastEnders (20:00) BBC1
6 …. 9.5 (47.1%) …. BBC News (17:45) BBC1
7 …. 8.6 (35.0%) …. Strictly Come Dancing Christmas Special 2008 (19:00) BBC1
8 …. 7.4 (30.0%) …. Coronation Street (19:00) ITV
9 …. 7.2 (39.8%) …. Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit (16:30) BBC1
10 … 6.4 (42.6%) …. The Queen (15:00)
Well done to Wallace and Gromit backers who backed the clay northerner at 14-1. A very comfortable win with a massive amunt of viewers. I didn't take into account the competing shows enough and paid the price. Annoying but hey, thats bettting. Incidentially, the odds on Eastenders also shifted inwards a lot and by Christmas Eve represented very poor value and probably a lay at around 1.39 on Betfair.
Thursday, 25 December 2008
So as gamblers how can we use it? The first thing is protect yourself against the 'Black Swan' that if occurs will wipe you out (or give your betting bank a bloody nose). Looking closely at the shows and trying and predict how things will pan out is normally good but you will miss things - being late to things is usually as bad due to the market having shifted - you can't sit in front of Big Brother for twenty hours a day (unless you are a student).
So the point is to not leave yourself overexposed on a single possibility - no matter how unlikely. If Manchester United go a goal down at home, laying 1-0 at 1000-1 is sensible because it won't happen due to very fixed rules. It TV betting it may happen at a producers whim - Nikki Graham re-entering the house, for example. Recently, the phone vote scandals and crackdowns have seen a reduction of these spontaneous and random rule changes that cost the viewers money but it still can and does happen.
Laying Sylvia to go as third eviction of Big Brother, as someone did last summer at 1000-1 cost someone badly - fine if you have £100,000 in your account but risky if you have £2000.
Diana Vickers getting Laryngitis is another good example of how fickle fate can be to the gambler. It killed her chances stone dead.
So in summary, if possible, prepare for anything.
Wednesday, 24 December 2008
Ten rules should be enough, although we may need less. Please leave your suggestions below as you will no doubt have other ideas which work well for you. A lot of the rules will apply to general gambling as well.
One rule, I will ignore is below is:
'Don't publish your betting research on the web and give away your edge.'
First Commandment coming soon!
Tuesday, 23 December 2008
I would like take this opportunity to wish you all a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
Enough of the niceties. I am not happy about the lack of a live feed on Celebrity Big Brother this year. I suspect it will be more unpredictable than ever - but from a betting point of view it's good, I suppose. It is becoming even more acceptable to be as outrageous as possible in order to gain notoriety and as a result, cash.
As an aside, I intend to start my TellyDatabase in the next few weeks. It will be a page(s) with relevant data for all TV betting shows. It should help betting on these shows enormously.
Sunday, 21 December 2008
TellyBetting strikes again! A few weeks ago in this post, TellyBetting plumped for Tom. The odds were about 6-1 at the time. I will hold my hands up and admit to laying off some profit when the polls closed before taking a big position on Betfair when Tom made the final.
The last dance was brilliant and Tom deserved the title in the end despite the somewhat inconsistent judging.
This series has a been a seriously good one for betting on and I will miss it while it's gone. I find it easy to read and I know many others do as well. I would love to see line betting next year on Betfair, but I doubt it will happen. The key early point for next year is to realise the judges have the power to clear the deadwood early on - no more John Sergeant's will happen next year.
I plan on requesting the voting figures from the BBC for Strictly if they don't release them - a Freedom Of Infomation Act request should do it. We can digest the results on this site at our leisure! I want the results from all the series!
Enjoy your winnings and roll on Celebrity Big Brother and Dancing On Ice!
I would also like some advice from any American Idol experts - I haven't watched it much but I realise this site should cover it.
Friday, 19 December 2008
Snippets like this mark the difference between Winners (me and you) and Losers (the non-researching general public)!
At bloody last, the final. Three left. Here is a quick summary of things so far, lifted from the BBC website.
Tom & Camilla
Tom & Camilla will perform their highest scoring Ballroom dance of the series - the Foxtrot; and their highest scoring Latin routine - the Salsa. If they are in the final two they will perform a group Viennese Waltz with the other finalists, and a show dance.
Based on performances up to and including semi-final
Average judges' score - 34.1
Average Ballroom score - 35.2
Average Latin score - 33.4
Total number of 10s - 4
Highest scoring dance - 39 for the Foxtrot in the quarter-final
Lowest scoring dance - 28 for the Cha Cha Cha in week 1.
Rachel & Vincent will perform two of their record-breaking dances of the series; the Rumba, which is their highest scoring Latin routine and a Foxtrot which was awarded a perfect 40 in week 10. If they are in the final two they will perform a group Viennese Waltz with the other finalists, and a show dance.
Based on performances up to and including semi-final
Average judges' score - 35.3
Average Ballroom score - 36.3
Average Latin score - 33.5
Total number of 10s - 18
Highest scoring dance - 40 for the Foxtrot in week 10
Lowest scoring dance - 30 for the Samba in week 5
Lisa & Brendan
Having achieved full marks for their ballroom dance just last week, Lisa & Brendan will perform their second highest scoring Ballroom dance - the Foxtrot. They will also aim to wow everyone with their top scoring Cha Cha routine. If they are in the final two they will perform a group Viennese Waltz with the other finalists, and a show dance.
Based on performances up to and including semi-final
Average judges' score - 34.1
Average Ballroom score - 36.6
Average Latin score - 31
Total number of 10s - 11
Highest scoring dance - 40 for the Quickstep in the semi-final
Lowest scoring dance - 22 for the Salsa in week 2
Remember to visit my page summarising the scoring history of the judges. It might help you in your betting. Good luck and remember to not bet too early.
Thursday, 18 December 2008
This video was knocking around for a while before the current series of Strictly Come Dancing started. I saw it early and like many others - including his family and friends by all accounts - backed accordingly.
Was this our answer all along?
This final is going to be very close. The odds should be closer than they are - excepting Lisa of course.
As said before, betting on the night on who you think is the best dancer on the night seems to be the best option.
If he makes the final (he will) I am going to go back in on Tom just before his final dance as I think his odds will plummet. The question then is lay off or not on Betfair?
Wednesday, 17 December 2008
Andy Murray - Has to win a Grand Slam to win it. Better odds backing that instead.
Lewis Hamilton - Not good value.
A. Cricketer - Possible, can't tell which one yet. Cook could be a lively outsider if he scores like Gooch did in 1990.
Ricky Hatton - Must beat Pacquiao to have a chance, which is unlikely.
David Haye - Is my current pick. He is class and good with the media.
Kelly Sotherton - The most likely athlete to win it.
Ian Poulter/Paul Casey/Justin Rose - see Andy Murray.
Laura Robson - Will win it within five years (This is something I would bet big on). She is the one possible real outsider for me at the moment for this year. She is increasingly looking like the real deal and the real deal in Women's Tennis can start causing damage at age 15 - Hingis, Austin, Kournilova etc. I can imagine her getting into Wimbledon via a wildcard and winning a few matches. The Daily Mail etc will champion her. Watch this space. Currently 100's but she will drift on Betfair - when she finally gets on the market!
No odds worth taking yet on anyone. Bide your time.
Tuesday, 16 December 2008
I think Rachel has a very real chance of overturning Tom's (presumed but strongly evidenced) phone vote lead. Another factor is when they announce that Tom won the phone vote last Saturday. Will it mobilise Rachel's fans to pick up the phone?
Although Rachel was overmarked earlier in the series, her breathtaking Argentine Tango was the dance of the series and will have won a lot of fans. The released X Factor results show that people switch allegiance easily and often (I will post on this in depth soon).
Personally, I am strongly green on Betfair on Rachel and Tom so I am in an enviable position. My advice is to lay Lisa on Betfair, who has no chance at all, then watch on Saturday before betting more on the outright winner.
Monday, 15 December 2008
Chris Hoy 283,630 votes
Lewis Hamilton 163,864
Rebecca Adlington 145,924
Ben Ainslie 35,472
Joe Calzaghe 34,077
Andy Murray 19,415
Nicole Cooke 18,256
Christine Ohuruogu 7,677
Bradley Wiggins 5,633
Rebecca Romero 4,526
As I said here, wait until the night itself. It was good advice. Adlington came across as rather dull. She also looked terrible which also isn't a great vote winner. Hoy was the consumate gentleman whilst Hamilton is just too much of a robot to enamour the public into picking up the phone.
The regional vote also played a part in my opinion. I am kicking myself for not acting on this obvious factor. Well done to Chris Hoy though.
Personally, I didn't bet in the end on the main event - just didn't fancy it in the end. The Overseas Personality was annoying (poor research on my part in not checking who votes) but Young Personality was a nice win.
One thing to remember for next year is that the main contenders odds dived when they were on the show, they then returned to pre-interview levels quickly. A cracking future trading opportunity if ever there was one.
I have not fully planned what to do with my bets now - excepting the fact that I greened up on the Winner's market as soon as possible. Risk Management is the name of the game here while they continue too make up the rules as they go along.
My advice is to green up any profit and watch It Takes Two in order to watch the dances. Regarding the outright, I feel Rachel has really closed the gap on Tom in the last two weeks in the eyes of the public - I will try to find some evidence of this later.
Regarding the dances on Saturday, Tom's modified Quickstep (Showdance) is a 40 in waiting but the others are less clear at the moment. The Fred Astaire twist with Tap section will go down a storm.
More soon, it's going to be a busy week!
Sunday, 14 December 2008
Personally, I have found it very interesting. Finding out about the dark world of blogs has been fun, as has playing around with HTML in order to create pointless but satisfying changes to the layout. I am planning on making a few more cosmetic alterations soon, in order to make the site easier to read. The site traffic has increased in the last few weeks so hopefully I am doing something right so far! I certainly think it is field of betting which will continue to grow in the next few years and infomation for gamblers is lacking.
Do I enjoy the shows? When there is no money on it, I sometimes watch but find them generally dull. With cash staked, it becomes an fascinating study into reading both the public and the editors thoughts and I love it.
I have a day job and a young family which keep me very busy and I often don't have enough time to update when I want - this massive weekend being a case in point. It would be awesome to increase the frequency (and quality?) of postings. To this end, one thing I would really like is to share the work in writing (and hopefully later on, running) the blog. I would like to get other people with an interest in TV betting to offer their ideas and advice. There are a lot of gamblers out there who bet on TV shows who win a hell of a lot more than me and who have their own successful techniques/theories.
If any readers fancy helping out with posting on TellyBetting please drop a quick line to firstname.lastname@example.org and I will be in touch. Who knows where it will lead!
Thursday, 11 December 2008
Rachel and Vincent - Argentine Tango 36.5 American Smooth 36.5
Tom and Camilla - Argentine Tango 35.5 Jive 35.5
Lisa and Brendan - Argentine Tango 34.5 Quickstep 36.5
As you can see from my average scores grid here, there are some high scoring dances here.
I like Rachel for overs on both dances, Tom overs in Jive and Lisa overs for Argentine Tango. In all honesty going overs on all bets would probably bring a nice profit.
The judges have too much power for my liking in this, so like a few people, I have backed Tom to win and to go tommorrow (as cover) - as in my opinion, if he makes the final he will win. This is better than sitting out and getting very bad odds if/when Tom makes the final.
Wednesday, 10 December 2008
The X Factors winners song this year is Hallelujah, originally done by Leonard Cohen (above) and rehashed by Jeff Buckley more recently.
Have a listen and a think who may do it well on finals night. It will probably decide who wins the series.
Tuesday, 9 December 2008
JLS are very popular here but the demographic using Google to search out the acts are not necessarily the same demographic that picks up the phone. Also JLS in itself is a more popular generic search term.
However, it is interesting to see the spikes each week as the show develops.
Monday, 8 December 2008
|The Top 3 nominees have been announced and I can't for the life of me work out how Aussie Laura Robson is 2/7 fav. Not taking anything away from her achievement of winning Jr Wimbledon but lets face it Annabel Croft won that! Born in Australia to Australian parents, moved to Hong Kong at 6 then comes to Britain and is now being hailed as the next big thing. Did very well but has hardly had any notable publicity since wimbledon.|
The other candidates are Tom Daley (won it last year so easily dismissed) and Eleanor Simmonds. She's availiable at 5/2 and for me the prices should be reversed. Golden girl of the Paralympics. Two Gold medals and a world record (sound familiar to the main award?) Has a glowing personality and has been paraded plenty of times since. On top of that, she is only ever likely to win the award in an Olympic year (will be too old when 2012 comes around).
The award is decided upon by a panel chaired by John Inverdale, who each have a vote for the winner via a secret ballot. Inverdale presented both Olympics and Wimbledon so is hard to predict. Other panel members are Jake Humphrey who was used a lot on Olympic presenting so could well favour Simmonds, Andy Martin, head of Olympic and Paralymic Developement for Youth Sports Trust(Simmonds almost definitely), Mike Atkinson, Dir. of comms and policy YST (probably vote same way when you consider 2 of the board members of YST are Duncan Goodhew, olympic smimming gold medal winner and Marc Wood, who won 12 swimming medals in the Paralympics), Henry Aikines-Aryeetey, former winner and promising sprinter who may well favour the Paralympic achievement, Kate Haywood, former winner and a fellow swimmer (Simmonds vote) and a rep from CBBC, BBC Switch and SPOTY, who have not been named.
By my analysis at least 4 of the nine votes should almost definitely go Simmonds way so only needs another one of the other 5 votes available to ensure win. Hence a lot of value in the 5/2 with Sad brokes!!
EDIT: Mr SOSPAN, you are very good! Thank you.
The total number of votes was statistically significant and pretty good (more than most political polls).
I think it demonstrates how important the edit is in reality shows and that online polls are a dangerous way to make decisions. The SCD poll below and the X Factor polls on this website confirm this. The edit in IACGMOOH and Big Brother is especially crucial.
They are certainly a consideration but don't use polls alone to make your mind up. Watching changes in polls in better though, as this gives youy an idea of momentum e.g. Diana Vickers poll numbers were static after her illness.
Quick update of the Yahoo SCD poll. Rachel has closed the gap to nothing. I don't think the poll is particularly valuable but it may be interesting to some of you. It probably shows Lisa will not win which may help you Betfair layers.
Sunday, 7 December 2008
A losing week. Lisa obliged but Austin didn't, so I registered a small loss there. This was compounded by my side bet on Tom going out being a loser.
I now feel cathartic!
This blog is fairly new and has got off to a very strong start results wise (I will tally up the overall results in the next few weeks). I am naturally very proud of this and this was probably causing me to close down decent positions on Betfair too early to lock in some profit. I will try to be braver from now on and not tinker!
An early thought for next week. Rachel to get highest score/overs on line betting in the Argentinian Tango. She did well in the normal Tango and with 'Vinthent' an expert in this, she will probably get 40. A bit of dusky eye shadow, a red dress and Vincent leading (a huge and often understated advantage) make this a bet I am confident on (unless the line is 39).
Friday, 5 December 2008
Tom has failed to progress as expected in the voting. He has stalled somewhat. I am laying him on Betfair and taking a small profit before deciding next week whether to go in again. Austin now has a kickass Latin dance for the final which has sorted his biggest weakness.
So, any good bets this week? Lets start at Boylesport's line bets, which have been very profitable so far. The oddsmakers are much less generous this week and good bets are harder to find. The only two bets I like are firstly over 36.5 for Austin in the American Smooth. I think he is good for 38+. Lisa's Waltz is a 40 in waiting, so go overs on that. Edit: The line has shifted on Lisa, she is no longer a good bet.
The eviction market is interesting this week. Although, Lisa v Rachel is the likely bottom two, Tom could fall into the bottom two in my opinion. If he does, it will be a toss-up who goes. The 6-1 looks big for eviction on Betfair.
Wednesday, 3 December 2008
Now Nicola has gone he has no-one to bounce off and annoy.
If you followed me in with a little bet on DVD consider laying it now.
EDIT: Good timing, that one!
Tuesday, 2 December 2008
Michael Phelps is the greatest Olympian ever (some say sportsman) who simply must win. Lovely bloke, who spent a lot of time with the BBC.
Usain Bolt put in possibly the greatest sports performances ever seen, obliterating 'Blue Riband' records. He is a massive personality as well. He was the defining memory of Beijing. A true 'fenom.' He simply must win.
There have been four joint awards in 46 years and this year will be another. The two are simply inseparable (If you do bet, check the rules regarding dead heats with your bookie before you bet). As they are inseparable, back Phelps. It is likely Bolt would win it again if he doesn't win this year - running 9.48 in London 2012 for example. Phelps can't lose it and the award maintain 100% credibility, while Bolt could.
But it will likely be a joint award.
EDIT: My mistake here was not researching who decided this award. It was a panel of reporters who were always more likely to side with the bigger attraction. It used to be BBC staff only. You live and learn!
First up is the main event itself. Let us look at some figures in relation to the three main contenders and only realistic winners - Lewis Hamilton, Chris Hoy and Rebecca Adlington.
Formula 1 has provided six winners in all. Swimming two and Cycling one. The interesting area is looking at winners in Olympic years. In Olympic years sice 1960, eight of twelve winners have been Olympians (Two of those twelve have been F1 drivers) - they don't always win in Olympic years.
Chris Hoy is the most successful UK Olympian since 1908. I can't have him as a winner though. Cycling is too minority a sport and he isn't very captivating to listen to.
Adlington comes across brilliantly on TV and will surely grab the housewives/Daily Mail vote by the sackload. Expect some puns involving shoes and a lot of screentime.
Hamilton is a strong favourite,involved in possibly the most exciting sporting moment of the year. The BBC have F1 next year so will push him more than they might have done in the past. He has a legion of petrolhead fans as well.
Don't spend a penny on this market until the night, when you can watch the edit and timings etc. Keep your eyes peeled in the press as well for campaigns, polls etc. For what it's worth, Adlington is my pick at the moment, but my powder is being kept dry.
Monday, 1 December 2008
1) A fair phone vote market across the board - no insider trading.
2) A decent Big Brother with a decent psychological edge.
3) A new monster TV show betting opportunity.
4) No more Dannii Minogue as judge.
5) A new X Factor judge.
6) Strictly Come Dancing back to Saturday night shows only.
7) More liquidity on Betting Exchange markets.
8) New analytical tools on the web.
9) Profit and lots of it.
10) More readers and guest writers with an interest in TellyBetting.
I am very annoyed with myself for not taking the over 4.5 10's at Boylesports. As soon as I saw it, I made a note to back it at 10-11 but plain forgot about it. A stupid, stupid mistake.
My original draft for this weeks predictions was just to back all overs with Boylesports on the line betting. That would have realised a handsome profit this week. Over analysis can sometimes cost me money, and this was a case of not backing my gut instincts doing just that. The analytical route is the one I have taken though, and is probably why you are reading TellyBetting as well.
I was very busy this weekend, so couldn't give my full attention to X Factor, I backed Ruth with a small amount to go as soon as I saw her first performance but at terrible odds as they drifted markedly straight away afterwards. I then went out and missed a massive price drop for Alexandra.
Personally, I often bet less as the series goes on as it sometimes becomes harder to read the winner and the evictions have less attractive odds as the oddsmakers finally start to catch on.
Saturday, 29 November 2008
- Toxic by Britney
- Listen by Beyonce
- I'm Not A Girl, Not Yet A Woman by Britney
- Everybody Hurts by REM
- Sometimes by Britney
- Together by High School Musical
- I Love Rock and Roll by Britney
- Always by Bon Jovi
- Hit Me Baby One More Time by Britney
- You Light Up My Life by Whitney Houston
I have a real treat for you here. The average scores for all the dances, including 10's information and high and low scores. This is the only such table on the net.
It should be good for predicting 10's over the next few weeks as well as aiding line betting. Have a look, there are some interesting numbers there.
Friday, 28 November 2008
GMTV Poll: Who do you think should be booted off The X Factor this weekend?(take with a large pinch of salt)
High scorers in this will also get more phone votes, in my opinion.
Austin and Erin - Foxtrot and Paso Doble - 34.5 - Overs on Foxtrot is the bet here. It is a traditionally high scoring dance. For Paso, the line looks good.
Tom and Camilla - Waltz and Samba - 35.5 for the Waltz is high but I can see him getting 38+ for this. The Samba bar is 34.5 and I would go in on this for overs as well. He has rhythm and a sense of fun and should do well.
Regional Voting (RV) is a difficult one to quantify. Certain regions, those with a real or perceived strong regional identity can vote en bloc to support their own.
Northern Ireland residents in particular, are quick to pick up the phones. The current darling is Eoghan Quigg, who despite being utterly terrible, is proving popular. Leon Jackson would not have won last years X Factor if he was from England. There are many other examples.
X Factor is shown in the Republic of Ireland as well which is worth knowing.
So how to analyse this. To start, I propose that if the contestant is from:
Northern Ireland - multiply final X Factor number by 1.3
Scotland - multiply by 1.4
Wales - multply by 1.1
English areas with a strong regional accent - multiply by 1.05
These numbers will probably change with analysis.
Previous Voting Numbers (PV) - We would love these numbers. Hopefully at the end of the current series we will get them released. We will have to manage without for the moment.
More on this topic soon.
Wednesday, 26 November 2008
Here is a rough chart showing the Yahoo Poll results so far for IACGMOOH. I know it is incomplete (no DVD and Mallet) but I reckon it will help predict evictions and winners. I know I won't back him, but I wouldn't oppose Joe at the moment looking at this.
Regarding eviction, there may be some decent value now the immunity cards are gone.
Also not so good was the return of the insider money on Betfair. The late plunge on Kilroy was suspicious, reminiscent of George Sampson's late plunge in the final of Britain's Got Talent.
Don't get caught out by this.
Monday, 24 November 2008
However, I am not backing him. IACGMOOH is historically a very unstable show to bet on. It is even harder without a live feed to watch.
Matt Willis came from nowhere on the last night to win and it could happen again. Joe's odds offer very little value and should be ignored. My advice? Hold fire until this time next week on the winners market and concentrate on taking a contrarian approach in the eviction markets. Myself? I have had a few quid on David (could do well) at well over 100's.
John Sergeant did not dance on Saturday and I was worried when Betfair settled my bets as losers. However, I emailed them beforehand to clarify what would happen if he didn't dance as the reply said his bets would be voided. I emailed them about the losing bets and they refunded the bets I still have them down as losers. If you lost money on him - complain, their wording was confusing and inaccurate.
The whole market should have been voided when he withdrew and restarted afterwards.
However, I can't complain as SCD is the number one betting show in my opinion.
Friday, 21 November 2008
Rachel and Vincent average 33.33 in Ballroom and have showed marked improvement in rcent weeks. I like the over 33.5 for their Foxtrot.
Austin and Erin have averaged 31.67 for Latin. The 34.5 line looks a big ask.
Lisa and Brendan are confident this week. They average 35.33 for Ballroom and should pass 33.5 doing the Quickstep.
Finally, Tom and Camilla have a big ask at over 34.5 but I think they will do it. I think Tom is most likely to get a 10 of all the dancers this week.
Good luck, whatever you do.
Wednesday, 19 November 2008
It goes without saying that this is a great way to see who is getting the most exposure. This will be useful in all markets.
Thank you ITV, you have saved us a lot of work! Go take a look.
Tuesday, 18 November 2008
Tonight I did, and boy things are changing. The graph below shows a snapshot of votes on certain dates. I do realise there is a big gap in the last two dates but the key thing is Tom Chambers gradient. He was a nonentity at the start but has accelerated to third top and if you extrapolate the gradient he will go higher still. This is a series winning trend in my opinion.
I think chinless Tom is the best all round dancer in the competition but I was concerned about his popularity. This allays those fears. He now has the hallmark of a winner.
John Sergeant is of course top and running away but he will probably get eliminated during the semi stage with some cheeky vote-rigging by the judges - Anyway, I have him onside massively and advised you to do the same a few weeks ago. I have also closed out of my Jodie bet with a very small loss (£2).
I am excited about this although I am annoyed I closed out of my early bet on him. I was fiddling for no reason.
Monday, 17 November 2008
Saturday, 15 November 2008
In Strictly, Christine came good in the line betting, netting a tasty profit. The BBC changed the supposed running order. This meant Tom became an instant 'no bet' for a bottom two slot. I did lose some cash on Jodie being in the bottom two but not a not.
Meanwhile over on ITV, Ruth avoided eviction, meaning more profit. Alexandra avoided being in the bottom two and I lost on that one.
Alexandra is causing me some trouble. All my models have her down as unpopular - I am concerned.
Never mind. Earning money watching TV is a great feeling.
Friday, 14 November 2008
- John & Kristina — American Smooth
- Tom & Camilla — Salsa
- Christine & Matthew — Waltz
- Lisa & Brendan — Samba
- Austin & Erin — Tango
- Cherie & James — Cha-cha-cha
- Jodie & Ian — Quickstep
- Rachel & Vincent - Rumba
However, if John is very popular and gets loads of votes Tom could be the bet for botttom two. The Google Trends graph at the top backs this up - click on it for a better look. Remember, this is Bottom Two not To Go (the judges will keep Tom over virtually anyone). The running order may also change, so don't bet the house!
Please leave your thoughts. I am very interested to hear them.
Thursday, 13 November 2008
Up to now they have tended to be funnymen who do well on the whole.
Christopher Biggins, Dean Gaffney, Vic Reeves and Cannon and Ball were late entries.
You will be able to trade out at a profit and it is probable you will get two entries for the price of one as well.
Blue represents the uploads per artist last week, red for this week. Firstly, the huge press coverage seems to have given the competition a big shot in the arm as all uploads are up massively.
The ones that stand out are Ruth and also to a lesser extent, Eoghan. Ruth has had a massive surge in upoads in the last week. I realise some will be due to the sing-off but any exposure is good exposure in my opinion. Bar the girlbands, the bottom two have flitted around a bit (probably due to running order) and I suspect it will continue this week.
Again, Alexandra is not a finalist going on Web Traffic alone.
How to bet then? Firstly, I will probably lay Ruth to go this week on Betfair (assuming she will get a later slot). I will have a bet on Ruth to win it at 28's also on Betfair - the Google Trends graph above also shows massively increased interest. I will also reduce liability on JLS netting a tasty 25% profit but keeping some powder dry.
Finally, Alexandra for bottom two is going to come in this week.
How to do this? I think:
1st - 1 point
2nd - 1 point
Middle - 5 points
Last - 10 points
The rest inbetween
This bit will need altering, but it is a start.
Wednesday, 12 November 2008
I will spend some time researching this mob.
Early thoughts. Simon Webbe, Joe Swash will be the obvious early favourites. I like Martina and possibly Carly Zucker - but that is gut feeling and we don't like that on this site.
Tuesday, 11 November 2008
Certain topics are going to produce baseline numbers to add and subtract and others are going to be multipliers. I would also love to include a square root and a pi sign as it will look much better!
I will also try to put the finished equation into an online form so you can enter your own values and work out the contestant X Factor in your opinion.
The number I am trying to get will produce a weekly result, not finding out who will win the series - helping eviction betting (the best and most profitable). The higher the number, the higher the predicted phone votes.
Judge Input (JI) - This very important as it sways people at home how to vote. Viewers are easily persuaded that what they heard was 'world class.' The number will be between 1 and 10.
Exceptional - 10
Very Positive - 8
Positive - 6
Neutral - 4
Poor - 3
Very Poor - 5
Savaged - 7
(Judges Argue - Add 1 to your overall impression of JI)
Note the bimodal distribution of points awarded. We all know a beasting attracts the votes.
Internet Traffic (IT) - Youtube or Google? I don't know. I like Google Trends as a lot of people search Youtube on Google as well. You may disagree. They are both good. The top result will have a number of one, the others less than one as a proportion of the top figure.
IT =Most recent Google Trend Number x 20
Two down, many more to go.
Definite pattern emerging now. JLS's web traffic is the only one approaching Diana at the moment. I suspect Diana's laryngitis has inceased her search traffic as well. Ruth is not on this graph but she is very similar to Eoghan on the graph.
Alexandra remains on my 'at risk' register. She will need to nail it every time to stay in.
Firstly, we need variables and figures to put in the equation. I will need your help with this one.
XF = X Factor - The number produced by the formula which shows a contestants weekly rating.
JI = Judge Input - A numerical figure derived from the judges comments. This is going to be very tricky to do.
IT = Internet Traffic - A term used to encompass all internet research.
RO = Running Order - Should be self-explanatory
PPV = Previous Phone Votes - God, I would love these figures! But we will have to do without.
RV = Regional Vote - Some contestants benefit from a regional bias.
SA = Sex Appeal - Probably has a little value
Have I missed any out? Please leave feedback. I will start creating the formula tonight.
C = Culture - I am going to avoid race, but some cultures will be less popular than others.
E = Edit - Can't believe I forgot this.
EE = Expressed Emotion - Tears!
P = Performance - Not as important as you would think!
This is going to take some time to produce!
Sunday, 9 November 2008
Strictly Come Dancing was less surprising. Heather finally got put out of her misery losing to Rachel in a dance-off - confirming my view that Rachel isn't very popular. I suspect next week will be Operation Get John Out, we shall see.
Not too bad a weekend for myself. X Factor was poor, neither Rachel or Alexandra made the bottom two netting two losers there. However, JLS looked good and confirmed my belief they will make the final. I suspect Eoghan's internet traffic may rise in the next few weeks - we will spot it here first.
However, the two big bets of the weekend were better. Heather to get over 26.5 scraped in (Boylesports moved the line to over 27.5 later on friday - do they read TellyBetting?) with a 27, but hey, they all count.
Rachel Stevens to be bottom two was also a big winner. I had some 8/1 earlier in the week (see below) and some 20/1 last night as a top-up.
Finally, Jodie Kidd. She was terrible last night. I don't know what happened. The fact she was not in the final two having danced second and scored so lowly suggests she may be quite popular after all. Maybe, it will be a good bet after all - although I will probably trade out of it on Betfair in a week or so.
Hope you did well. I am aware I have not been analysing past results enough in order to predict the markets better, I will get onto it this week.
Friday, 7 November 2008
Youtube is excellent for analysing popularity and below are the results from searches looking at the number of videos uploaded. Blue is in the last month and red is in the last week. The ratio of red over blue is virtually identical for all the contestants - 0.40 to 0.42 - which shows by my reckoning little momentum change for anyone.
As you can see they are second only to Diana Vickers at the moment with a significant gap to third place. They are also building up steam on the Google Trends charts and are actually catching Diana in that respect.
There is a massive gap for a boyband in the UK at the moment and other than Diana, they offer the possibility of making long term money for Mr Cowell. I know a band have never won X Factor but they have come close. They have also tightened up their performances in the last 2 weeks and are now playing to their strengths. I have moved position from Eoghan (netting a small profit) to these guys. In case you are wondering, I am also on Diana at 8/1, Rachel 19/1(Doh!) and have a little on Daniel as insurance against Same Differenceitis.
It is also interesting to see who is not popular. Daniel cannot be properly analysed by these methods in my opinion as his voting cohort are older and are not on Youtube (beware he was also backed by Chris Moyles). He worries me from a betting view.
It has also empathised my belief that Alexandra is not popular. The fact that it is Mariah Carey week makes things more tricky as it should aid Alexandra and Rachel.
My advice. Wait until the running order is known before betting tonight. I still think Alexandra and Rachel for bottom two could be good value if they are up early but I am betting small this week as it is hard to read.
EDIT: Diana is apparently not singing tonight due to Laryngitis.
Jodie looked fantastic on It Takes Two. In a poor year for characters, I am beginning to think she could even win this and have backed accordingly with a small amount. She is improving rapidly and looks more like a Zoe Ball each week.
Thursday, 6 November 2008
The graph above is an aggregation of snapshots of Yahoo poll results. Again Diana is very popular but the real surprise is Alexandra. This result goes against the Google Trends results and also against Youtube views.
Daniel is another who is a lot more popular. If this graph is correct, the odds are very wrong. I am not convinced though. We shall see!
Wednesday, 5 November 2008
Here is this weeks Google Trends analysis. I think a pattern is beginning to emerge. I think Diana is a very worthy favourite and is still value at 2.62 on Betfair. Laura and JLS would be my calls to make the rest of final three.
This weekend could interesting. Daniel could be going this week as I think he will be bottom two. I think he will be up against either Rachel or Alexandra but this depends massively on running order.
Monday, 3 November 2008
Above is a graph I have high hopes for. It will show the numbers of videos posted on Youtube of each contestant. It will take a few days to get going but I am hoping this will spot early trends.
I had tracked individual videos before but they kept getting pulled ruining the graph. This should be more stable.
This link to the most popular Youtube videos shows that Diana is still very popular.
EDIT: It appears that this graph may be s***!
EDIT: Or not. JLS appears to be a make of gun, thus skewing the results. If you take them out you get some data. It is too early to apply it properly. We will let it run a week or so more and see.
The graph above is an update of the Yahoo poll. Again the gradient is the key to seeing popularity. I think that as less people use the poll, it is less valid. I will publish it this week for possibly the last time. You may see something I don't. Rachel Stevens does not appear popular though. Bottom two could well be the bet for her. I am not convinced there will be much value in backing Heather this week. I think I will watch Rachel's practice dance before committing though.
Below is the updated scores graph. It cements Austin and Tom's superiority and Jodie's and Lisa's improvement. It also shows Rachel's lack of improvement.
Finally, Tom appears to be the early bet for top score this week.
Sunday, 2 November 2008
It has been good weekend for TellyBetting as well:
1) Austin Healey nailed the over 33.5 - easiest bet of the year, thank you Boylesports.
2) Andrew was evicted. Sorry, I didn't post this as I was betting in-running, but it was fairly obvious at the time.
3) Rachel in the bottom two in X Factor - The search stats threw a nice one out there.
A couple of small losers in Alexandra bottom two and Rachel to be evicted, but that's life and the three winners were much bigger bets. I am also trying analyse how I missed Austin's eviction. I think it was a simple running order thing and another example of why you should bet during the show as you can read the 'plot' unfurling. Daniel not being in the bottom two followed a similar pattern to Ruth. I am kicking myself for not laying him on Betfair as I talked about it being a potential pattern a few days ago.
I think both SCD and X Factor will get more difficult to read from here on in. A 'shock' is due next week, possibly Rachel Stevens bottom two in SCD.
PS I have put this blog on www.tellybetting.com as well. Hopefully, I will see you there.
PPS If you have any suggestions to improve analysis or new things to analyse, please leave a note.
Saturday, 1 November 2008
The chart below is a graph showing the number of votes on the Yahoo poll. I have been lazy so all the graphs don't start at zero. The thing to look at is the gradient of the graph, not the absolute numbers. John's line is rising, and fast. Bar Cherie, whose momentum is waning a little, everyone else is static.
It is not a strong year with nobody being a truly great personality and a great dancer (Austin is nearest). Alesha last year was truly fantastic and still hangs over this years mob somewhat. Could a popular John ride roughshod through the show?
There are a few counterarguments. Insiders would have surely charged in on John's price already, it is an unreliable internet poll, his votes will fall away (a la Kate Garraway). We shall see.
He can be had at 100's at Coral at the moment. If you don't believe me (and I am not convinced myself) at least consider covering yourself.
Friday, 31 October 2008
Austin & Erin - Quickstep
Heather & Brian - Cha Cha
Jodie & Ian - Waltz
Andrew and Ola - Samba
Lisa & Brendan - Tango
Cherie & James - Salsa
John & Kristina - Foxtrot
Tom and Camilla - Paso Doble
Christine & Matthew - American Smooth
Rachel & Vincent - Jive
In my opinion, dances to watch are Austin and Rachel. Boylesports 33.5 line on Austin looks a cracking bet at overs. He also looks good for top score, my only proviso would be a Rachel cover bet.
Below is the beginnings of my chart showing all the SCD average dance scores. It is a lot of work, so may take a while to finish. It should give some pointers, especially in the line betting.
Thursday, 30 October 2008
Wednesday, 29 October 2008
Dear Sir/Madam,I am writing to inquire about the non-publishing of the actual voting numbers for the BBC's TV show Strictly Come Dancing. As someone whose family reguarly vote in this show it occurred to me that the actual results are never published. In light of recent well publicised scandals involving phone-in competetions this is obviously an area of potential concern. As you know the BBC's Code of Conduct for Competitions and Voting states that:
The BBC undertakes that competitions and votes are conducted in a way that is honest, open, fair and legal
In particular, I draw your attention to the open part of the sentence as keeping the results private certainly contravenes that.
Wish me luck. I will post any replies here.
Monday, 27 October 2008
Looking at the graphs above which look at the number of times people search on Google for each X Factor contestant a few things stand out.
Firstly, Diana's search numbers have fallen from the previous week. This could be explained by a perceived poorer performance (which it was), but another reason could be the public losing interest in the songstress. I have picked up on an early negative vibe starting about her (e.g. the weird hand movements) and I think she may drop a little further in the odds as this gathers momentum - expect to see 'I hate Diana' Facebook groups very soon.
JLS seem increasingly popular as well and I am considering betting on them as I think they will drop in price soon.
Does being in the bottom two raise your profile to avoid being there the next week? Ruth's numbers held this week and I am very interested to see how Daniel does next week.
There are two names that people are not interested in and they may be up next. We will see, but I have a sneaky feeling Alexandra and/or Rachel could be bottom two this week.
Sunday, 26 October 2008
Strictly Come Dancing continues to be the easier show to read, although Craig's harsh scoring nearly cost me large when Rachel scraped past 31.5. The laying of Lisa and Christine was also easy money. Andrew scraping by was annoying especially as the 6-1 for him to go was looking a good bet.
X Factor was also annoying despite predicting Rachel's odds drop. I hope you got in and out as recommended. Daniel probably deserved to stay but I am uncomfortable about his morals in so flagrantly using his wife's passing to stay in (although I predicted it may happen - using Unchained Melody though)
Still, profit is profit.
Saturday, 25 October 2008
Paso Doble 27.48 (33 dances, top score 37, bottom score 15)
Viennese Waltz 31.4 (20 dances, top score 38, bottom score 23)
There is a marked difference and this is interesting for our strategy this week. Backing Viennese Waltz dancers for top score would appear to be an area to work on.
Regarding individual contestants scores, Rachel Stevens at 8/11 to score over 31.5 at Boylesports is a fantastic bet given the training footage and the above statistic. This really is a cracker. Laying Christine and Lisa as weekly top score on Betfair should be easy money as well, although the odds are poor at the moment and not yet worth looking at.
PS Rachel Hylton as a back (18-1) to later lay on Betfair should be a profitable move. Big Band week and she is singing Feeling Good. With her style of voice, she should nail it.
Wednesday, 22 October 2008
Today's chart is a chart of the contestants scores in SCD up to now. It admittedly, is not statistically valid but hopefully in few weeks some trends will become apparent regarding who is improving and who isn't. I will add the scores to it weekly and publish it for your delectation.
I think Andrew will go this week, losing to Heather in a dance-off. As you can see, he and Heather are the least popular dancers and I consider him to be the worse of the two. He is also doing the Viennese Waltz which is dull and not a vote winner compared to the Paso Doble the other lesser male dancers are doing. The lovely Ola does not engender much female support, either. Finally, as the graph above shows, he is not improving and is just going backwards.
The list of dances is below:
Jodie & Ian
Lisa & Brendan
Cherie & James
Christine & Matthew
John & Kristina
Mark & Hayley
Andrew & Ola
Austin & Erin
Rachel & Vincent
Heather & Brian
Tom & Camilla
Remember. Keeeeeeeeeeep betting!
Scott Bruton scored 7 in another graph. Every search needs a static factor (Diana) as it is proportional to the first entry (Google don't give actual search numbers). Diana's interest is continuing to rise.
I think Daniel may go this week especially if up early. The sympathy ride is over. I will also keep an eye out on the odds for Alexandra to be bottom two. There may be some remarkably good value if Scott does well.
Monday, 20 October 2008
Sunday, 19 October 2008
I personally find that the outright markets are more difficult to predict and less profitable but easier to get out of a bad position and have a lot more liquidity.
This research orientated way to win money will continue next week.
Saturday, 18 October 2008
Friday, 17 October 2008
Back to the drawing board. The Youtube graphs below were showing some very good stuff before the videos got pulled by Youtube. I will post another graph soon. It certainly appears Diana is popular.
Strictly finally gets going this week. Polls like above start to give a more accurate idea of who is popular and who isn't, as they get more statistical power due to better numbers. My tips for this week are:
1) Heather or Don to go - see above. Or back both in a 'bottom two' market.
2) Back Tom - he isn't that popular yet, but this weekend he is getting married. This will get mentioned a lot. He will back this up with a top notch dance. The Fred and Ginger style of the American Smooth is his inspiration. An easy trade opportunity.
3) Back Rachel - in practice she looked to have an absolutely stunning routine. Another easy trade opportunity.
I think the 10 board will come out as well. Good luck.
Thursday, 16 October 2008
An interesting graph is being produced here. Please click on the image for a better view. If the Diana spikes become a regular pattern I will bet on her. Below is the Trendrr live feed graph which supports Diana very strongly. I will add the other acts on the feed tommorrow.
Tuesday, 14 October 2008
Trendrr is a new company that allows you to make detailed analysis of a number of websites, including Youtube. It allows you plot and analyse graphs looking at total views, number of comments, views per day, times favourited. I am hoping it will let me build up a picture of viewng trends which will spot shifts early.
I will post some results when Trendrr captures them and we can take a look and see if it is useful.
Monday, 13 October 2008
Unless you are directly involved with the show or know someone who is, you won't get better information for betting on.
Strictly Come Dancing has the informative It Takes Two which gives a decent preview of the upcoming dances along with a judges opinion on it. This is in my opinion, essential if you want to make big, consistent money on Specials betting.
We will explore more complex ways to get ahead in the coming months.
Sunday, 12 October 2008
Scott Bruton - He was stitched up by the song choice. He looks like he can perform on stage but his voice is poor. Not a winner in my book.
Alexandra Burke - Good voice but I wouldn't back her at the moment. Set up for her last night, she couldn't go wrong.
Austin Drage - A poor start from one of the supposed favourites. I have a feeling he will stay for a while. Now is the time to bet on him
Daniel Evans - Cheesy and can't sing, but lovable. I have a feeling that this guy is a lot more popular than he deserves to be. Rumour is that his back up song is Unchained Melody which would make him very strong in a sing-off. Back to lay - but not much.
Girlband - Going soon.
Rachel Hylton - An interesting one. She was fed a terrible song which was designed not show her talents. They either want rid of her or are setting her up for a story. I have her onside at the moment but am not risking a lot.
JLS - Slick. Look like like top 4 act. Next weeks Michael Jackson theme will play into their hands. I still can't see their price moving too much for a while. The only thing that worries me is their group status.
Ruth Lorenzo - She has a good voice but a complete absence of support.
Eoghan Quigg - He did well. I think he could go all the way. The make-up guys sorted him out and he has the teen vote and the Irish vote to come. Back him at 10's - you will be able to trade it.
Diana Vickers - Great performance and a early shout as potential winner. I think she may struggle if asked to tackle other types of music. I would want to see her again before putting my hard-earned down.
Laura White - Very solid performance but it was set up for her on a plate. Good song choice and last on. She is now underpriced on the exchanges. She will have to brilliant every week just to keep that price and that will not happen. Lay.
Friday, 10 October 2008
Week 4 of Strictly is upon us and the standard is higher than ever. Eviction wise there are 2 main favourites. Jodie and Jessie are rightly favoured but I feel Jodie will do enough this week. Jessie was up first last time so shouldn't be this time but I still reckon that as the worst dancer left, she will go. She is just the wrong shape and as leaden-footed as they come. Plus rumours from the show suggest she isn't liked much. The Elephant will go.
Expect strong performances from Rachel and Cherie which may lower their overall odds. Cherie in particular looked very good on It Takes Two, using her acting skills(sic) to nail a hard dance.
I have included a screenshot of what I think is a very valuable tool in specials betting - Google Trends. Everyone knows about using Youtube and internet polls but this is another useful arrow in the quiver. It picked out George Sampson in Britain's got Talent as winner so I like it a lot. Keep an eye out once the sexes merge in the show in a few weeks. The thing that stands out is that apart from the general noise of frisky teenagers searching for her, Christine Bleakley hasn't stood out yet - is she underpriced? We shall see.