Saturday 30 April 2016

EU Referendum Odds

There's a lot going on in politics right now with Brexit here in the UK and the soap opera like US primary season across the pond, leading into November's presidential election, which is bound to be equally explosive. Both still have a fair way to go but it can't hurt to lay out the betting odds so that we can return to them later down the line. In this first post I'll cover the EU referendum.

With daily scaremongering from both side and interjections from across the pond (Obama etc) the IN and OUT of the EU campaigns have already taken off the gloves. I can only imagine how low they will both be willing to go in the run up to the referendum which is being held on Thursday, 23rd June. Most newspapers of course have a slant of their and own only tend to highlight polls that push their own particular point of view. Even collating polls in a seemingly unbiased manner can be problematic, as various polling companies are known to be somewhat partial in one direction or another, with polling itself being used to influence opinion.

The whole polling industry in the UK is all over the place compared to the US where you can generally gleam a lot of insights from polling data. For what it's worth though, above I've included the most recent poll data available. From this alone it would appear that the IN campaign is still in good shape. It does seem somewhat at odds with the media push though and also anecdotally when I ask people how they intend to vote. Then again that's of limited help as I live in one of the most conservative parts off the country.

Here are the current betting odds from various bookmakers courtesy of Odd Checker:

These broadly fall in line with the polls right now, though with a while to go until the referendum anything can change. Also, certain demographics such as the elderly tend to be more eager to get out to the polls. They're a group that tends to favour the OUT vote. There's a way to go yet and so it will be interesting to follow up on this in a month or so to see the lay of the land then.

Thursday 14 April 2016

Britain's Got Talent - Rather You Than Me

I've had a couple of decent results of late, with the Anthony Joshau and The Voice predictions (it had to happen eventually!), so instead of trying my luck again and immediately leaping to another prediction, it's time with a brief interlude from Britain's Got Talent. Of course the series has only just started this year so no odds are available at present. Like any good bet though, I'm sure Alexandr Magala's antics here will get your heart going! Click through to view.

Thursday 7 April 2016

Anthony Joshua vs Charles Martin

In part due to Wladimir Klitschko finally being dethroned after over a decade, Tyson Fury has firmly taken centre stage within the heavyweight divison. Of course his antics and madcap personality contribute to his place in the limelight too. Should Anthony Joshua win against Charles Martin this Saturday at the O2 though, he'll be positioning himself as a real pretender to the throne. At 15 wins from 15 fights and a 100% knockout record since his professional debut in 2013, Joshua hasn't put a foot wrong so far and he'll be hoping to keep that run going. He already holds the British and Commonwealth heavyweight titles and will be looking to add the IBF World heavyweight title to his collection.

Current odds for a Joshua win are an understandably short 1/5. On first glance Charles Martin does have a good record and an enviable knock out percentage but it goes without saying that he's never fought anyone in Joshua's league. In fact it's hard to take anything from his record that suggests he's truly 'earned' his position as the current IBF World heavyweight title (a title left vacant when Tyson Fury decided against defending it against mandatory challenger, Vyacheslav Glazkov). With the combined record of 36 knockouts out of 39 fights between the pair it seems unlikely to me that this will go the distance, so while the odds for that eventuality look generous on the surface, in reality they are probably about right (7-1 for a Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision, and 22-1 for Charles Martin).

With little value for a Joshua win and not much better for a Joshua KO or TKO (1/3) I'd be tempted to look to round betting and go for  Joshua win in Under 5.5 rounds (at 8/11 with several bookmakers). It's a risky bet in some ways, but I think his strength will prove to be far too much for Martin and in my estimation that will start to tell very early on in the fight. It all hinges on him getting the job done fast and his professional record so far suggests that's certainly well within his capabilities.

Should Joshua dispatch of Martin and Fury beat Klischko in their July 9th Manchester Arena rematch too, I'm sure we'll be hearing calls for a Joshua vs Fury match up before we know it. It would be one of the most exciting match-ups in years. Beyond that it's possible that one of the two will even be able to unify the heavyweight division - a division that's suddenly looking very lively for a change. It's about time too!

Wednesday 6 April 2016

The Voice 2016 Winner

It's a funny show The Voice, in many ways it's more watachable and considerate of those taking part than the 'Christians to the Lions' nature of the XFactor. So it has that going for it.On the down side though, it seems that people are more into the format than the contestants, based on the fact that after the chair turning rounds are over the ratings take a nose dive each and every year. This point is compounded by the fact that everyone and their nan manages to forget who won the previous year's show and so far it hasn't managed to launch a successful career for anyone taking part.

Taking all of that into account, being that someone with a degree of recognition has made it to the grand final public vote (Kevin Simms, of Liberty X) that has to be a big plus. They were big in their day and there's still a 'why did they split up?' quality about them, so I suspect they still have a bit of a following on the quiet. Sims is currently 11/10 to win the show. Song choice will likely factor in but unless Ricky Wilson really messes up with that I don't think he's a bad bet. No-one is huge odds and I wouldn't say that there's a big value bet to be had elsewhere (Jolan: 5/2 , Cody Frost  7/2, Lydia Lucy 7-1) so Simms it is!