TellyBetting's New Year Resolutions

Here is how I intend to improve my betting in 2009:

1) Play the long game more - I have picked the winner early in many shows but lost profit to being an inveterate fiddler. Big Brother in particular is bad, locking in piddling profits on Betfair instead of playing the long game.

2) Research more - with TV betting you can know at least as much as the bookies.

3) Back my methods - if some analysis shows results that really don't make any sense, I don't always back it. I should, the contrarian approach pays dividends.

4) Bigger stakes - Don't tell the missus!

5) Be quicker to get infomation - With shows like IACGMOOH and Big Brother (very interesting to see what will happen in the summer) shying away from the expense and potential loss of footage control of twenty four coverage. This means more infomation is coming from the press via offical releases and un/official leaks. I have recently set up RSS feeds and Google Alerts directing infomation to me as soon as it made public. In only few days it has been very effective. I intend to direct my TV betting news feed page to this site which should help you all as well as me (just working out how to do it most effectively as it currently sends me a lot of guff as well).

6) Look for new sources of infomation - Obvious really. I am currently looking at Twitter which I think could be a very useful source in the near future.

7) Continue with the site. I think it has improved my TV betting a lot so far (f***ing TV ratings betting excepted - I am still annoyed with myself).

8) Expand the site - I want a TV betting database and News Feed for starters.

9) Audit my methods - I hate the word audit but I need to find out what works and what doesn't.

10) Win more. A lot more.

I'm A Celebrity...- Final Yahoo Poll

Well, it picked out Joe Swash as winner so it can't be all bad. However, it's performance in getting the rest in order was terrible.

The total number of votes was statistically significant and pretty good (more than most political polls).

I think it demonstrates how important the edit is in reality shows and that online polls are a dangerous way to make decisions. The SCD poll below and the X Factor polls on this website confirm this. The edit in IACGMOOH and Big Brother is especially crucial.

They are certainly a consideration but don't use polls alone to make your mind up. Watching changes in polls in better though, as this gives youy an idea of momentum e.g. Diana Vickers poll numbers were static after her illness.

Joe Swash: To back or not to back?

Joe is the strongest favourite in years in IACGMOOH. He has played a flawless game so far and looks a comfortable winner even at short odds.

However, I am not backing him. IACGMOOH is historically a very unstable show to bet on. It is even harder without a live feed to watch.

Matt Willis came from nowhere on the last night to win and it could happen again. Joe's odds offer very little value and should be ignored. My advice? Hold fire until this time next week on the winners market and concentrate on taking a contrarian approach in the eviction markets. Myself? I have had a few quid on David (could do well) at well over 100's.

ITV lend a hand

This cheeky little link is to the IACGMOOH Celeb Tracker. It is explained rather nicely by the clipping on the left.

It goes without saying that this is a great way to see who is getting the most exposure. This will be useful in all markets.

Thank you ITV, you have saved us a lot of work! Go take a look.

I'm A Celebrity Win Market Betting Odds

Found a good bet at William Hill. Any Other to win at 12's looks real value. Why?

Up to now they have tended to be funnymen who do well on the whole.

Christopher Biggins, Dean Gaffney, Vic Reeves and Cannon and Ball were late entries.

You will be able to trade out at a profit and it is probable you will get two entries for the price of one as well.

I'm A Celebrity, Get Me Out Of Here!

List just out:

Brian Paddick
Carly Zucker
Dani Behr
Esther Rantzen
George Takei
Joe Swash
Martina Navratilova
Nicola Maclean
Robert Kilroy-Silk
Simon Webbe

I will spend some time researching this mob.

Early thoughts. Simon Webbe, Joe Swash will be the obvious early favourites. I like Martina and possibly Carly Zucker - but that is gut feeling and we don't like that on this site.