Wednesday 18 March 2009

Time For A Break

Bad news, I'm afraid.

I am really busy at the moment in my work life so I can't maintain the blog as much as I would like to. Something has to give and this blog is it. So I have decided to post less regularly but hopefully better of quality.

I am away this weekend so can't comment on Dancing On Ice. Personally, I have greened up on Betfair and can now relax. I suspect strongly Ray will win though.

I am also keen to keep my ideas to myself more as I am beginning to make real progress in predictive analysis and want as few a people as possible with the same idea.

HOWEVER, I will be back with a bang for Britain's Got Talent and the daddy of them all, Big Brother.

I am also watching American Idol (not the show) closely but there is little value in the market at the moment.

Sunday 8 March 2009

Dancing On Ice: My Semi-Final Prediction (and Zoe Salmon In A Bikini)

Firstly, A bit of Zoe Salmon in a swimsuit for the pervs on here:

Anyhow, back to more serious business. My predictions for next week. Skaters scores first:

Ray 4
Jessica 3
Donal 2
Coleen 1

That is the easy bit. Now the public bit:

Donal 4
Coleen 3
Ray 2
Jessica 1

The totals are:

Ray 6
Jessica 4
Donal 6
Coleen 4

Donal is safe next week in my opinion. The bit I am unsure about is the possibility of Jessica overtaking Ray in the public vote which would change things a lot.

Personally, I backed Ray, Donal and Coleen, so I am quids in whatever (Jessica has no chance). I am annoyed I missed the massive odds on Donal but that's life.

Saturday 7 March 2009

American Idol: Early Votefair Poll

Here is an early clip of the Votefair American Idol poll. The numbers are very low rendering it meaningless at the moment, but it is a poll we will watch over the next few weeks.

Mr Lambert certainly has an early lead!

Will Coleen Skate?

It appears the market doesn't know yet.

I have some experience with suspected Scaphoid fractures and normally people are put into plaster/a splint for 10 days and then x-rayed again to see if a fracture is present. She may get a MRI scan/Ultrasound to give a quicker answer but it won't be 100%.

Personally, I doubt she will dance tomorrow. The risks of falling on an already fractured scaphoid are very real (Non-Union, Mal-Union, Avascular Necrosis, Complex Regional Pain Syndrome etc) - even in a protective splint. It is different gravy to a rib fracture etc and you can bet the shows insurers will be watching carefully.

Bet accordingly and protect yourself on Betfair. There are a few cheeky bets out there. A dutch of Donal, Zoe and Jessica weighted towards the girls looks a good bet, if a small one.

I may be wrong but it could mess up a nice green book and that would be annoying.

EDIT: Coleen is skating tonight.

Thursday 5 March 2009

American Idol: Wildcard Poll

An interesting site. I am glad I backed Anoop Desai. I suspect he could be a big player.

I also think Adam Lambert is very beatable and underpriced on Betfair. I can't understand his price looking at the internet 'noise.'

Tuesday 3 March 2009

Dancing On Ice: Google Trends

I don't think Google Trends is particularly useful in analysing Dancing On Ice but here is the graph anyway.

There is not much traffic to speak of in my opinion but Ray seems to be the most popular.

'Nothing to see here,' as a traffic cop might opine.

Monday 2 March 2009

Surely The Most Dodgy Poll Of 2009

This is why I am trying to ignore all Internet polls (except the occasional Digital Spy poll) when TV betting!

Talk about rigged. This is just an embarrassing attempt.

Sunday 1 March 2009

American Idol: Trendrr Graph Update

Interesting graph, isn't it? It shows the American Idol odds are currently spot on. Bring on the final 12.

I still haven't watched it!

Dancing On Ice: Donal Traffic Shoots Up

Donals midshow internet traffic has shot up this week from nowhere last week.

The key is the number on the y-axis on the graph. The top graph is Coleen with a 272, the bottom is Donal with 330 - the next highest was 170 ish.

Coleens fans however may be less internet savvy though. I'd have it about equal in all honesty.

What Was The First TV Bet?

I reckon 'Who shot J.R.' was the first TV bet taken by the bookies.

Can anyone go earlier than that?

Is TV Betting Looked Down On?

TellyBetting has only been around for a few years and is increasing in traction at quite a rate. However, I have noticed a certain snobbery amongst some sports gamblers to us young bucks. They think it is rigged and ridiculous to bet on something as unpredictable as TV shows. I also get some incredulous looks when I tell non-gamblers what I bet on (they tend to come round when I tell them what I win).

I would say that most of us take this into account when betting and enjoy the rollercoaster nature of it. I would also say that it is more trustworthy than the horses or dogs. Like the horses, there are patterns which are identifiable and can be used to make money.

There are lots of shows as well to try, it does help if you find one you like - Strictly Come Dancing is a good one for many.

So, give it a go. You may like it.