Sunday 20 December 2009

Christmas Number One Sales Figures

Rage Against The Machine: 502,672

Joe McElderry : 450,838

Lady Gaga: 61,677

Peter Kay: 52,605

Pogues: 18,457

Mariah Carey: 16,449

If these figures are wrong I will stand corrected :).

Previous X Factor Winner Sales Figures + Show Viewer Averages:

(Series 1) Steve Brookstein - 250,000 (6.90 mill viewers)

(Series 2) Shayne Ward - 742,180 (8.72 mill viewers)

(Series 3) Leona Lewis - 571,253 (8.02 mill viewers)

(Series 4) Leon - 490,000 (8.35 mill viewers)

(Series 5) Alexandra Burke - 576,000 (10.50 mill viewers)

(Series 6) Joe McElderry - 450,838 (13.31 mill viewers)

RATM vs Joe McElderry

A month or so back, who could've predicted such a close, and particularly unusual christmas number one battle would be looming. It seems that the great British tradition of crazy christmas number ones happenings was not only put on hold by X Factor (year on year) but also eventually spurred on by it.

Many have suggested that Cowell probably loves the idea of this chistmas battle, but I'm not so sure. Publicity for the show and Joe himself is surely at saturation point, so unless this battle results in hundreds of thousands of additional sales (which by the stats so far it hasn't), I don't see it as a plus for Cowell that Joe may miss out of the number one spot.

The midweeks:

Joe McElderry

Tuesday Mid Week Sales: 77,000
Wednesday Mid Week Sales: 110,000 (+33,000)
Thursday Mid Week Sales: 216,000 (+116,000)
Friday Mid Weeks: 297,000 (+81,000)

Rage Against The Machine

Tuesday Mid Week Sales: 83,000
Wednesday Mid Week Sales: 175,000 (+92,000)
Thursday Mid Week Sales: 253,000 (+78,000)
Friday Mid Weeks: 306,000 (+53,000)

The RATM campaign has been phenomenally successful, but Joe has been catching up towards the weekend. On the face of these numbers, you'd think this was Joes for the taking. At time of writing though RATM stand at odds of 1.18 and Joe 6 on betfair. A complete turn around from last night. A leak? Or do punters think the snow may have harmed Joe's physical sales (O rly?). His digital sales were low the day before the physical CD went on sale. It's hard to wrap an MP3 :). Have thousands of Rage fans have been holding out towards the weekend to buy the single? An intriguing situation.

Roll on the top 40.....

EDIT: Based on their sales the CEO of thinks that RATM may have sold 100,000 units on saturday. Enough to swing it?

Tuesday 26 May 2009

'I Say Britain, You Say Talent....'

The last seven Britain's Got Talent heats have gone to the person who is last up. The nature of the contest means that being last is a massive advantage.

This does not apply to the final which is over two shows.

My picks?

I finally bowed to pressure and backed Susan Boyle to win. I also have had three longshot side bets with Hollie Evans (massively overpriced), DJ Talent (pictured - he was very funny) and Julian Smith (has the story/drive to win it and you know he will be consistent).

I posted about Jamie Pugh being a contender a few weeks ago but luckily never backed him. He was useless wasn't he?

Analysis of Susan Boyle's popularity is difficult as the whole is still gabbling about her - while not voting for her. I am very confident she will win.

Sunday 24 May 2009

Britain's Got Talent - The Final 40

Here is the list. I think I will peruse it today at my leisure. There are 5-6 live contenders, the rest can be cut straight away. More later on.

Aidan Davis – Dancer
Ben and Becky – Ballroom Dancers
Brit Chix – Rock Band
Callum Francis – Musical Theatre
Darth Jackson – Michael Jackson/ Darth Vader Impersonator
DCD Seniors – Dance Troupe
Diversity – Street Dancers
DJ Talent – Rapper
Dream Bears – Comedy Dancers
Fabia Cerra – Burlesque Dancer
Faces of Disco – Comedy Dancers
Flawless – Street Dancers
Floral High Notes – Flower Arranging and Opera Singing
Fred Bowers – Breakdancer
Gareth Oliver – Comedy Impersonator
Good Evans – Family Singing Group
Greg Pritchard – Male Soprano
Harmony – Musical Theatre
Hollie Steel – Singer/ Dancer
Hot Honeyz – Dancers
Jackie Prescott and Tippy Toes – Dog Act
Jamie Pugh – Singer
Julia Naidenko – Belly Dancer
Julian Smith – Saxophonist
Kay Oresanya – The Living Saxophone
Luke Clements – Juggler/ Street Performer
Mama Trish – Drag Act
Martin Machum – Guitarist
MD Showgroup – Dancers
Merlin Cadogan – Physical Performer
Natalie Okri – Singer
Nick Hell – Street Performer
Shaheen Jafargholi – Singer
Shaun Smith – Singer
Stavros Flatly – Comedy Dancers
Sue Son – Violinist
Sugarfree – Street Dancers
Susan Boyle – Singer
The Barrow Boys – Wheelbarrow Dancing
2 Grand - Singers

Wednesday 20 May 2009

Photo Finish

Well, there are only 2 runners not 3 but the picture should tell you what I think.

I have changed my mind today several times and truly don't know tonights winner.

My latest thought is that Adam has improved over Kris by 1.6% from last week. If this is true he wins by either 0.6% or 2.6% if Ryan Seacrests comments last week are true.

Or you could just toss a coin!

Anyway, Good luck all.

Thursday 14 May 2009

Another TellyBetting Triumph!

I do hope you are following me on this series. I may not have watched a minute of the series but reckon I have nailed it!

That was a very predictable result last night. I am a bit surprised at how Kris has reduced the gap to basically nothing and I make him a narrow favourite now to win the series. The stats showed that this week his numbers have shot off the scale and he is now up there with Adam in the silly numbers area.

I say I am surprised but we have had a run of hot favourites stalling near the end in the last year - Diana Vickers, Mini Me, Andrew Johnston, Austin Healey, Kathreya etc. The public definitely have an attention span/ boredom threshold of only 6-10 weeks before they seek out something new.

I think producers have learned this and like to encourage flip-flops and a more dramatic narrative.

What do with American Idol? Personally, I win big whatever, but I will probably go with 70% of profit in favour of Kris to win by shifting money on Betfair this week. I suggest you do the same - by clicking on the ads on this page, opening an account and betting away!

Good luck.

Tuesday 12 May 2009

Kris Allen: Everybody's Second Favourite?

Here is a quick look at a graph from Votefair showing why I am confident of landing the first two.

Keen TV gamblers like to talk of the concept of Vote Transference - voting for someone else if your personal favourite goes. I have never been really convnced that it affects things that much but others disagree with me and always take it into account.

The way that the Votefair ranking has Danny so low suggests that he is nobody's second favourite - you either vote for him or you don't. So if Vote Tranference concept is a correct assumption, not much will be transfering Danny's way.

A caveat though (isn't there always one), the middle America Christian voters are not represented well on these research polls. Many millions wait to vote until the final night. The religious phone vote powder may have been kept dry.

Fascinating stuff, isn't it?

Monday 11 May 2009

Where Will Adam Lambert Finish?

This picture probably says it all. I know last week there was a shock but this is a fairly regular phenomenon in TV betting. People either seem to vote tactically or not at all thinking that this person is a shoe in. Boom - a headline is created.

What then happens if they stay in is usually a large vote boost the following week. Adam Lambert will get this massive vote boost this week, of that I am sure.

He can be backed at 1.36 on Betfair at the moment. Is this a good bet? I don't know but I think Kris Allen is closing fast. These shows are won and lost on the final night so nothing is concrete as yet.

Me? Well, I backed Adam and Kris back in the distant past so I am not too bothered with the final weeks posturing. I am confident of a good payday as I am sure Danny will be first out. Personally, if pushed to say, I also think Adam will win comfortably.

I still haven't watched the show! The experiment is nearly over.

Thursday 7 May 2009

American Idol Google Trends

Here are the Google Trends results for the final three American Idol contestants.

In all honesty there is not a lot of any significant interest to comment on but there you go anyway.

Wednesday 6 May 2009

Big Brother: No Live Feed?

Write to your MP, trash Endemol's HQ, daub slogans on Davina's car.

Rumours are abounding that there will be no live feed this year.

This is annoying as the insiders will clean up in the betting. What I don't understand is the contestants will be recorded anyway so surely it wouldn't kill them to pay an editor or two to stay up all night.

The whole point of the Big Brother 'experiment' was the live feed thing - this could be the beginning of the shows death throes.

American Idol Buzz Meter

This link is the Yahoo Buzz Meter. It is a superb site dedicated to the more analytical approach this site advocates.

Go take a look.

Votefair American Idol Graph

I haven't posted this sites results for a while. Here are the current stats.

A shift to Alison is fairly evident although I am not convinced you can draw too many conclusions from this.

I still haven't watched a minute of the show!

Tuesday 5 May 2009

I Declare The Big Brother Silly Season Officially Open

Silly season is here. This article in the Daily Star has to win the award for shoddiest journalism in 2009.

The 'shifty' foreigners will steal all our money.

I must try this making up stuff to get more readers malarkey. What phrases will bring in the most readers via Google? Allison Iraheta topless? Davina sex video? Amanda Holden naked? Zoe Salmon swimsuit shot(Hang on, I've done that already), Simon Cowell gay photo?

If I get 100,000 hits on this post this blog will be going downhill more often!

Monday 4 May 2009

Susan Boyle Being Squeezed?

Britain's Got Talent is getting interesting. Jamie Pugh exploded onto the show on Saturday. Look at his appearance here. It is very good.

Can he catch the Boylemeister? I think he can.

Looking back, George Sampson won last year because he wanted it so much it was visceral. Viewers liked that a lot and he stormed home despite being as low as 40's on Betfair on the final night. Paul Potts also ticked the same boxes. Jamie Pugh also seems to have that need to win with a bit of humililty and fragility . I prefer his backstory to Susan Boyle - who also has peaked too early. He also has a regional vote which is always good to have.

A word of caution though. These shows are swinging more and more as the producers understand better how to manipulate us. Remember, nothing is certain until the final night. Good luck though.

Thursday 16 April 2009

Susan Boyle: Phenomenon

I am raging at missing out on the 5's that were available at Totesport. I saw them and I wasn't thinking - assuming that there will be other live contenders to come.

I even thought that her price would come in a lot and still didn't act on it!

Is it all over? I don't know but £250 at 5-1 would have put me in a strong position.

Is she a bargain now at just over evens? Again, I don't know but I suspect she will drift a little in the next 4 weeks.

Good luck if you pile in.

Wednesday 15 April 2009

Important TellyBetting Announcement

I am very pleased to announce a new poster on this blog - see below.

Zoomraker is one of the United Kingdom's foremost TV betting experts who also takes the highly analytical approach to his TellyBetting with highly profitable results.

This is a real honour for this site and I am hoping his superior knowledge of statistical analysis will open new doors for us all.

Votefair American Idol Scores

A quick post today. Here are some Votefair results for this week.

Adam is back in front this week.

DialIdol Scores For Current Favourites

It is hard to say how well a contestants dial score correlates with there actual vote ranking. Last weeks elimination demonstrates this, with the lowest scorer not even being in the bottom three.

If there is any value in the dialidol data it would appear the race is currently between Gokey and Lambert.

It should be remembered that dialidol excludes text votes and only represents a certain type of voter, possibly towards the geekier/fanatical end of the spectrum as opposed to casual viewer.

The following article casts further doubt on the validity of dialidol data.

Tonights elimination will be interesting but I don't think I will be getting involved.

Wednesday 8 April 2009

American Idol: A Big Week

Well, this Adam Lambert chap is running away with American Idol.

I thought he was peaking last week but he apparently blew everyone away this week. His RTSI went off the scale and unbelievably the overall trend is still one of increasing popularity. This is almost unheard of after this amount of time.

Kris Allen's internet noise has bombed even more after he blew the graveyard slot. However, I think he will stay this week at least.

I am not betting on this but I think Anoop may go later.

So, if you haven't backed Adam, do you pile in? In a word - No. His price will drift out again a little. Don't miss it then though.

Friday 3 April 2009

Kris Allen: More Evidence

Here is some evidence to back up my assertion below that there has been a shift in recent days.

Get on Kris while you can. He is the value in the contest.

Thursday 2 April 2009

Dial Idol: For You Live Show Gamblers

People on Betfair have been using this to bet on evictions. It claims to have a remarkable success rate of 97%.

I don't watch the show live and haven't bet on evictions yet but people have been making very good money using it. I suggest you join them.

The details are in the picture on the left.

Go take a look here.

American Idol: Time To Make A Move

I have been keeping my eye on this shows stats (still haven't watched it) and this week there has been a subtle shift or two in my internet models. Previously, I had traded out of all positions after there being no value but it may be time to bet like men!

1) Adam Lambert - although miles ahead, has finally peaked. His traffic is reducing slowly. I still have him as a worthy favourite but it looks like he can be beaten by.....

2) Kris Allen - had a big jump this week in the stats. His traffic has doubled in one week. He is the only other contestant going the right way.

I am nicely green on both on Betfair and am ignoring the rest.

Now we wait!

Wednesday 18 March 2009

Time For A Break

Bad news, I'm afraid.

I am really busy at the moment in my work life so I can't maintain the blog as much as I would like to. Something has to give and this blog is it. So I have decided to post less regularly but hopefully better of quality.

I am away this weekend so can't comment on Dancing On Ice. Personally, I have greened up on Betfair and can now relax. I suspect strongly Ray will win though.

I am also keen to keep my ideas to myself more as I am beginning to make real progress in predictive analysis and want as few a people as possible with the same idea.

HOWEVER, I will be back with a bang for Britain's Got Talent and the daddy of them all, Big Brother.

I am also watching American Idol (not the show) closely but there is little value in the market at the moment.

Sunday 8 March 2009

Dancing On Ice: My Semi-Final Prediction (and Zoe Salmon In A Bikini)

Firstly, A bit of Zoe Salmon in a swimsuit for the pervs on here:

Anyhow, back to more serious business. My predictions for next week. Skaters scores first:

Ray 4
Jessica 3
Donal 2
Coleen 1

That is the easy bit. Now the public bit:

Donal 4
Coleen 3
Ray 2
Jessica 1

The totals are:

Ray 6
Jessica 4
Donal 6
Coleen 4

Donal is safe next week in my opinion. The bit I am unsure about is the possibility of Jessica overtaking Ray in the public vote which would change things a lot.

Personally, I backed Ray, Donal and Coleen, so I am quids in whatever (Jessica has no chance). I am annoyed I missed the massive odds on Donal but that's life.

Saturday 7 March 2009

American Idol: Early Votefair Poll

Here is an early clip of the Votefair American Idol poll. The numbers are very low rendering it meaningless at the moment, but it is a poll we will watch over the next few weeks.

Mr Lambert certainly has an early lead!

Will Coleen Skate?

It appears the market doesn't know yet.

I have some experience with suspected Scaphoid fractures and normally people are put into plaster/a splint for 10 days and then x-rayed again to see if a fracture is present. She may get a MRI scan/Ultrasound to give a quicker answer but it won't be 100%.

Personally, I doubt she will dance tomorrow. The risks of falling on an already fractured scaphoid are very real (Non-Union, Mal-Union, Avascular Necrosis, Complex Regional Pain Syndrome etc) - even in a protective splint. It is different gravy to a rib fracture etc and you can bet the shows insurers will be watching carefully.

Bet accordingly and protect yourself on Betfair. There are a few cheeky bets out there. A dutch of Donal, Zoe and Jessica weighted towards the girls looks a good bet, if a small one.

I may be wrong but it could mess up a nice green book and that would be annoying.

EDIT: Coleen is skating tonight.

Thursday 5 March 2009

American Idol: Wildcard Poll

An interesting site. I am glad I backed Anoop Desai. I suspect he could be a big player.

I also think Adam Lambert is very beatable and underpriced on Betfair. I can't understand his price looking at the internet 'noise.'

Tuesday 3 March 2009

Dancing On Ice: Google Trends

I don't think Google Trends is particularly useful in analysing Dancing On Ice but here is the graph anyway.

There is not much traffic to speak of in my opinion but Ray seems to be the most popular.

'Nothing to see here,' as a traffic cop might opine.

Monday 2 March 2009

Surely The Most Dodgy Poll Of 2009

This is why I am trying to ignore all Internet polls (except the occasional Digital Spy poll) when TV betting!

Talk about rigged. This is just an embarrassing attempt.

Sunday 1 March 2009

American Idol: Trendrr Graph Update

Interesting graph, isn't it? It shows the American Idol odds are currently spot on. Bring on the final 12.

I still haven't watched it!

Dancing On Ice: Donal Traffic Shoots Up

Donals midshow internet traffic has shot up this week from nowhere last week.

The key is the number on the y-axis on the graph. The top graph is Coleen with a 272, the bottom is Donal with 330 - the next highest was 170 ish.

Coleens fans however may be less internet savvy though. I'd have it about equal in all honesty.

What Was The First TV Bet?

I reckon 'Who shot J.R.' was the first TV bet taken by the bookies.

Can anyone go earlier than that?

Is TV Betting Looked Down On?

TellyBetting has only been around for a few years and is increasing in traction at quite a rate. However, I have noticed a certain snobbery amongst some sports gamblers to us young bucks. They think it is rigged and ridiculous to bet on something as unpredictable as TV shows. I also get some incredulous looks when I tell non-gamblers what I bet on (they tend to come round when I tell them what I win).

I would say that most of us take this into account when betting and enjoy the rollercoaster nature of it. I would also say that it is more trustworthy than the horses or dogs. Like the horses, there are patterns which are identifiable and can be used to make money.

There are lots of shows as well to try, it does help if you find one you like - Strictly Come Dancing is a good one for many.

So, give it a go. You may like it.

Sunday 22 February 2009

Jessica's RTSI Tonight

Here is tonight's RTSI for Jessica. She was getting very little traffic tonight.

Ray wasn't getting a lot either.

Dancing On Ice: Week 7 Thoughts

After Ray's spectacular 30 last week, the bookis have typically overreacted with this weeks odds. Blue Square deserve to get filled in for their 5/6 under 29.5 points. Get on quick - it won't last long.

Why Didn't I Follow This One Through?

A long time ago, before this blog was born, I speculated on Betfair that Heath Ledger could be a good bet for an Oscar. This was before the film was released in the US.

I never followed it through as I wanted at least 30-1 at the time. I always knew it was a storming bet but wanted to nick a monster win.


Saturday 21 February 2009

The Sole Reason For The Drift On Ray

A good old fashioned 'ramp.'

It's amazing what a comment on a forum can do to the market.

I hope none of you fell for this!

Friday 20 February 2009

Real-Time Sentiment Index (RTSI): Alexis v Danny

The graph on the left shows the RTSI for Alexis Grace over the last few days. The one below shows the one for Danny Gokey.

It essentially shows a set amount of internet noise for each contestant. If one gets more interest the timescale on the X-axis will be reduced.

Firstly, I am new to analysing these plots so your guess is as good as mine.

However, I reckon Danny made a much bigger impression during the show. Alexis caused a bit of a surprise in the results show but Danny has had more enduring popularity since the results show.

These graphs are difficult to analyse (due to the variable x-axis) so any help is appreciated.

Thursday 19 February 2009

Supertool Finally Unveiled!

I have decided to share with you one of my newish tools I use in Specials betting.

It is Facebook's Lexicon and it is essentially a way of searching and plotting people comments or updates on Facebook.

People often update in real time their thoughts on a TV show on Facebook. They will mention a particular contestants name. Facebook Lexicon counts occurrences of words and phrases that appear on Walls over time. Much like Tellybetting's old favourite Google Trends, these can be searched and plotted.

I was very excited when I first discovered it and was convinced I had the holy grail that nobody else had. It is good but the lag time (24-48 hours) is the real problem with it. These markets move a lot in 2 days and so the opportunity to use Lexicon effectively is rare. It is a pity as it is a sensitive tool when deployed correctly.

Have a look yourself. It is straightforward to use.

Why am I giving away tips to winning? Because there are other tools out there which may be better. The next great white hope is my Real-Time Sentiment Index (RTSI). I will let you know about it sometime.

Wednesday 18 February 2009

American Idol 2009: Trendrr Graph

Below is a plot I have set up on Trendrr. It measures the number of posts on Twitter about each contestant on American Idol. When the show hits the final group I suspect the traffic will go ballistic and offer some quality infomation. I will repost this graph regularly.

I would like to thank the staff at Trendrr for allowing me extra graphs in order to plot all 36 contestants together. It is a great site for TV betting research and I recommend it heartily.

EDIT: I know Arianna Afsar isn't on it. I am collecting her data though and will add her soon.

How reliable are Youtube views?

I thought I would repost this for the benefit of people who joined the blog recently.

Recently, I have been wondering about the validity of Youtube as a pointer to a persons popularity while betting on TV shows. Although it is good,I have suspected it was easily manipulated - much like a lot of internet polls. However, I don't believe people are doing it yet, although that may change on reading this!

This is the tool to do it. It is relatively slow, but left on overnight it could play havoc with view numbers on certain videos.

Is it wrong to mislead people in order to win cash?

I am seriously thinking of having a go with this in the next year. Don't say you weren't warned!

Tuesday 17 February 2009

The Fourth Commandment: Don't Always Back Who You Like

Sorry, been a long delay in the Commandments due to my bone idleness.

This may or may not apply to you all.
Personally, the people I like don't win TV shows. I take this as a compliment because they are usually pillocks.

Don't let personal opinions of contestants rule your head too much. You probably do not represent the average voting demographic so your opinion while not worthless isn't of much value.

Monday 16 February 2009

American Idol: Google Trends

Just started looking at some American Idol stats. Here are the Top 5 in the betting at the moment on Google Trends.

Nothing too exciting but good to get an early idea.

An Old Friend Revisited

Remember this graph? I found it again today. It goes to show that some of my methods just don't work. You live and learn! It is interesting though I'm sure you'll agree.

Talking of new methods, I will activate my Supertool in a few days. It should be great for American Idol betting

Sunday 15 February 2009

American Idol Top List

  1. Anoop Desai
  2. Von Smith
  3. Alex Wagner
  4. Adam Lambert
  5. Taylor Vaifanua
  6. Jasmine Murray
  7. Arianna Afsar
  8. Casey Carlson
  9. Megan Corkrey
  10. Mishavonna Henson
  11. Stevie Wright
  12. Felicia Barton
  13. Kendall Beard
  14. Kristin McNamara
  15. Alexis Grace
  16. Scott MacIntire
  17. Jackie Tohn
  18. Lil Rounds
  19. Jessie Langseth
  20. Allison Iraheta
  21. Danny Gokey
  22. Ricky Braddy
  23. Matt Giraud
  24. Ju’not Joyner
  25. Jorge Nunez
  26. Brent Keith
  27. Stephen Fowler
  28. Nick Mitchell
  29. Tatiana Del Toro
  30. Nathaniel Marshall
  31. Jeanine Vailes
  32. Kai Kalama
  33. Anne Marie Boskovich
  34. Kris Allen
  35. Matt Breitzke
  36. Michael Sarver
I still haven't watched any of the show. I will try to trim the list a little myself in the next few days in order to get some good early odds.

Dancing On Ice: Google Trends

This weeks Google Trends search review is on the left.

Ray seems to be popular and well ahead.

Do you back him at 1.4? That is the question.

Dancing On Ice: Thoughts

Surely, Ellery must be going tonight. If he is in the bottom two, he goes. However, this has been a poor series for me regarding evictions so far so don't follow me in too large.

Following last weeks line betting arbs, the bookies have tightened up the lines. There is a small one to be had with Ray and the weeks Top Score but little else of note. A pity.

Good luck.

Tuesday 10 February 2009

An Interesting Betting Tactic

The following was posted by Keano2 on the Betfair forum. He won his bet. What a great tactic, there are some smart cookies out there. Saying that, I can't believe he posted his golden ticket:

Lowest Judges score in week 5:
Under 9.25 with Sid James at 5/6 Todd to score above 7.9 points at 5/6 with the Goat. If he scores 7 or under, or 10 or over then 500*5/6 - 500 = (83.33) If he scores 8 or 9 it's a double collect at 416.67 + 416.67. So for a max liability of 83.33 scoring 8 or 9 is effectively 10/1 on what is a 2/1 shot.

Good eh? Perhaps I shouldn't post it?

Sunday 8 February 2009

Dancing On Ice: 5th Elimination Market

One bet stand out for me at the moment. Roxanne represents fantastic value at 15's. I think she should be 7-8's, maybe lower. She is a crap skater.

I actually think Ellery will be the one that goes, so have had a saver on him.

I also promise that this will be the last picture of Roxanne I post!

American Idol: A New Approach To Betting

This could be interesting. One thing that I suspect can get in the way of Specials betting is internal bias. You can't help but like or dislike people and this can affect your neutrality and judgement.

I also find myself having little spare time at the moment in order to watch the show.

So I thought we could run an interesting experiment. I will bet on American Idol - especially the winners market - but not watch a minute of the show. The eviction market relies on factors that occur during the show so I will probably ignore it. I will try to avoid even looking at pictures of the contestants.

This means I will be betting solely on the polling numbers alone without any of my own thoughts ruining it! It may go horribly wrong but nothing ventured. nothing gained.

Anyone else going to join me?

Dancing On Ice: Google Trends

Lets take a close look at DOI. It has been a bit dull with the exception of Todd Carty but it is a good betting medium.

Google Trends has thrown up an interesting picture. Todd's spike is not a surprise. Jessica is a touch more popular than I thought. Ray is not exciting the populace that much. Colleen is not doing well but remember that she appeals to a demographic who are not online as much.

We shall see how the graph changes in the next few weeks.

Sunday 1 February 2009

Dancing On Ice: What to do?

I have got rid of my Roxanne liabilities a couple of weeks ago. She is quite dislikeable. I am nicely green on everyone but especially Colleen and Ray.

Tonights show has me thinking that Donal could be a good outsider. He has showed marked improvement and tries very hard. He also has a good regional vote behind him - more so if Zoe goes. If he stays tonight, I may risk a few quid on him for a truly monster win. I thought you would prefer a picture of Roxy to Donal though!

Monday 26 January 2009

Introducing TwellyBetting

Well I thought I'd give it a go. I have joined Twitter to see what the fuss is about. You have probably already seen the real time feed on the right.

I must admit it strikes me as a fantastic way to disseminate tips and market opportunities amongst ourselves very quickly.

I would certainly be interested in following your thoughts on the betting markets.


I am sorry for not posting in the last week. I have been very busy at work including the weekend so literally didn't get a chance to post.

Celebrity Big Brother wasn't great for me. I managed lay off some of Verne due to overexposure but still lost some cash on him. I am annoyed because I tried to lay off everything at 1.4's but wasn't taken on - I suspect I have the same problem with Ray Quinn coming up as well!

Big Brother is getting less votes and more unpredictable. I must remember this for the summer.

I will post my Dancing On Ice thoughts later in the week.

Sunday 18 January 2009

News Of The World Vizu Poll

The NOTW poll remains Verne-centric and I suspect is the most accurate.

Digital Spy's Contrary Poll

Sorry for the poor picture quality.

Here is why Verne's price is holding up. The Digital Spy poll is often right. It is also often wrong. We shall see.

CBB: Google Trends Update

Increasing interest for Verne and Latoya in recent days.

Verne's driving stunt was very funny and would have gained a lot of votes. His price will finally start to come down in the next two days.

The series is petering out though. It has been dull.

Wednesday 14 January 2009

Celebrity Big Brother: Google Trends

Here is a quick cut from Google Trends looking at who I consider to be the four main players in CBB.

The initial spike is to be expected but what stands out is the sustained interest in Coolio. I think a lot of that will be due Gangsta's Paradise being dusted off but he is certainly making an impression which is not always a bad thing.

One to watch out for if he makes the last few as a possible bet for second (if possible - I haven't checked).

Big night for Verne tonight, he has been treading water a little. I am sure I am not the only one concerned with his lack of action. I want him to go out and grab this competition with both hands. The Teddy Bear costume will help. Saying all that, I haven't laid off yet though and he probably offers good value at the moment after his micro drift. Channel 4 are also showing Goldmember in the next week which will help.

Tuesday 13 January 2009

Dancing On Ice: Early Thoughts

In a guest post on another blog, I picked out Roxanne Pallett and Michael Underwood as good backs as well as Ray as a good back because he will trade lower. Due to the unfortunate circumstances of having a day job, I missed out on the really juicy odds available last week - which was bloody annoying. Ray's price did plunge as expected and I have traded out already with a tidy profit. There is no value in the dwarfish scally at the moment but he came across better than I thought he would - although thinking about it he will make the final and be 1.4-1.5ish at a guess.

Michael Underwood was frankly poor with no improvement and will go soonish, I have taken a smal loss on him already. Roxanne is my main hope at the moment of a big win. I have also included a gratuitous shot for your perusal (my site traffic doubles with pictures like this).

Is there room for Todd and Coleen? For the moment, yes - but this will change. Todd is no John Sergeant in my opinion. Coleen is going to stay a while, the Loose Women will really push it as well. I have her at 36's-44's.

Eviction predictions soon.

Monday 12 January 2009

Supertool: Verne Getting Even More Popular

The title says it all. Little V's popularity has increased in the last 6 days by roughly 20%.

The new techniques results are actually about 2 days behind current events so are no good for instant results which is a shame.

I was thinking of reducing my overexposed position on Verne but may wait a little longer after this - tonights show looks potentially very funny.

Sunday 11 January 2009

NOTW Poll: Favourite Male

Here is a poll from The News Of The World website.

No real surprises here.

The favourite female poll does not have enough votes to comment on - even for this site!

Saturday 10 January 2009

My New Supertool

The tips round here may be about to improve even more. I have developed a new Supertool to use in TV betting.

I won't be divulging my methods on this because I think it could make me a lot of money and you lot would try it to nab some!

Simulations have revealed success for picking winners in Britain's Got Talent (wow - 40-1), Big Brother, American Idol and X Factor. A little more refinement is needed at the moment though.

This could be a big one. I am very excited about it.

Google Trends For Celebrity Big Brother

No massive surprises yet in my opinion - Mini-Me got the most early interest.

I am still big on Verne and happy.

Thursday 8 January 2009

Celebrity Big Brother Digital Spy Poll

I haven't posted a poll in a while. This is the last four days of the Digital Spy CBB poll plotted on a graph. This poll is notoriously unreliable, but occasionally shows perception changes earlier than anyone else. The DS BB fanatics are quite media savvy and tend to spot things early on. The other thing is that they are contrarians and often oppose favourites for no real reason.

The numbers are very small but the graph may show Terry running out of steam a little. He has been drifting on Betfair today as well. Did I say the numbers are small!

I still can't see Verne losing out.

Tuesday 6 January 2009

A Nice Rigged Poll For You

Here is proof that you can't trust certain internet polls. Someone has been having fun.

However, if you take out Tommy Sheridan I suspect it is fairly accurate at the moment.

I am going to leave my Verne bet running (his price came in again as I promised you it would). The question is whether to back Terry properly - I did a little trading on him the other day on Betfair. I am not. He is getting a lot of exposure this week but may fade a little next week. He will probably continue to get good edits though.

Coolio is starting to grate a little so I will avoid him for now. La Toya will rise in the next few days as well.

If she makes the final night Ulrika could be a good bet for Top Female - I don't think this will happen though.

Sit tight with Verne is still my advice.

The Oscar's 2009 Betting: Special Guest Post

Richard at has studied the recent winners of the three main betting categories in an attempt to unearth some trends that could help us make the Oscars a profitable affair.

One thing to remember: Academy members nominate in the first instance to get it down to five nominees per category. They then vote again on those five nominees to decide on a winner.

A strong theme for this year’s Oscars could well be that of optimism. In the midst of an economic crisis that has crippled the USA one has a funny feeling that the ‘against all odds’ and feel good films could out. So too could the patriotic vote - the American movie industry needs its films to do well.

Leading Actor

2000 Russell Crowe Gladiator

2001 Denzel Washington Training Day

2002 Adrien Brody The Pianist

2003 Sean Penn Mystic River

2004 Jamie Foxx Ray

2005 Philip Seymour Hoffman Capote

2006 Forest Whitaker The Last King of Scotland

2007 Daniel Day-Lewis There Will Be Blood

Looking at the past eight winners there are definite trends that could point us in the right direction:

* Take out Adrien Brody’s performance in The Pianist and the other seven performances were of strong, larger than life characters - even the Deputy Dog sounding Capote.

* Performances of real life characters won in 04, 05 and 06, suggesting that another for the 2008 winner would be overload.

* After four consecutive winners from films set in the ‘past’, time could be ripe for a contemporary winner.

Leading Actress

2000 Julia Roberts Erin Brokovich

2001 Halle Berry Monster’s Ball

2002 Nicole Kidman The Hours

2003 Charlize Theron Monster

2004 Hillary Swank Million Dollar Baby

2005 Reese Witherspoon Walk The Line

2006 Helen Mirren The Queen

2007 Mario Cotillard La Vie en Rose

Looking at the past eight winners there are definite trends that could point us in the right direction:

* Take out Reese Witherspoon and the other seven winners have all portrayed women with a definite ‘struggle’. Whether they fought against the ‘system’, the law or history, they in essence gave a performance of unexpected strength in the face of adversity in all its forms.

* The last two winners have been historical figures and just like the Leading Actor category, I cannot see them repeating the dose this year. They also both happened to be foreign actresses - again a third in row is very unlikely.

* The last eight winners have also tended to follow a historical (set pre-1990)-contemporary repeating pattern. If the pattern holds true then I’d be looking at a contemporary winner.

Best Picture

2000 Gladiator

2001 A Beautiful Mind

2002 Chicago

2003 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

2004 Million Dollar Baby

2005 Crash

2006 The Departed

2007 No Country for Old Men

Looking at the past eight winners there are definite trends that could point us in the right direction:

* The first thing to notice is that the Best Picture is exactly that - the best film taking into account the some of all its parts. In fact only Million Dollar Baby provided an Oscar for Actor/Actress in a Leading Role - Hillary Swank.

* The last three winners have all been quite graphic, especially the last two in which violence was the running theme. A more serene winner this year?

* From 2001 onwards the winner has tended to be a film in which there is more than one main character, more than one big named actor/actress and certainly from 2002 onwards the portrayal of a ‘multi-character journey’. There’s no real ‘solo’ film where one big named actor/actress dominates in the line up of past winners.

So there you have it, some pointers that should help you in your trading of the Oscars. Final nominations are announced on the 22nd January and I'll be back then to apply these key points to the final five in each category, as well as previewing the Oscars for Best Direcor and the Supporting Roles.

Until then keep coming back to for more Dancing On Ice and Celebrity Big Brother news. And if it is sports betting you're interested in then check us out at

Monday 5 January 2009

Me Maxi Mini-Me Bet!

This link is to a Heat article about tonights show.

'On tonight’s show, as part of this week’s shopping task, the housemates will be forced to showcase the talent that made them famous in the first place.'

You just know Verne Troyer will be funny. Coolio does well as well. The rest are just too unpredictable. I think Mini-Me's price will contract further tonight and have rebacked him with a vengeance.

Rumours about Steve Strange going in persist, he is one to back if it happens.

Finally, here's hoping Lucy shows off her talents in the diary room - see left!

Saturday 3 January 2009

Not Quite 'One Million Dollars....'

....but a great start all the same. I hope you got on. It was quite funny watching him with the suitcase. You forget how small he actually is.

I have layed back all my 5-1 (and a little 4-1) at 2.46 on Betfair and have a lovely green book to play with.

His price will probably shorten a little further but I suspect others will look to get out soon on him and I wanted to bank the profit now.

No real data available yet to analyse but it looks to be a great house so far.

Time to get them drunk, Big Brother!

Thursday 1 January 2009

American Idol Betting: A New Tool

I have high hopes for this one!

I have used Trendrr on X Factor with mixed results in the past. I still think it is very promising as a TV betting tool. Previously, I had targeted it on Youtube video uploads but now I am going to target Twitter. This microblogging service is starting to really take off in the US and is becoming massive. Trendrr will allow me to count how many times a contestants name is mentioned on Twitter and graph it to monitor as a trend over a period of weeks. It will give very quick updates of popularity.

We shall see when the final 12 American Idol contestants are chosen.

Happy New Year by the way. Roll on Celebrity Big Brother.