Wednesday, 31 December 2008
After the Christmas Day ratings loss I vowed not to bet on TV ratings. Then I spotted the Celebrity Big Brother bet to the left on Paddy Power's website.
Big Brother Celebrity Hijack peaked at 3.21 million in 2008. Celebrity Big Brother peaked at 7.32 million in 2007. In 2006 it was 6.68 million and 2005 it was 5.4 million.
I personally think the ratings will not surpass 7 million this year. I might have a tickle at 6-7 million viewers - not much though!
Tuesday, 30 December 2008
1) Play the long game more - I have picked the winner early in many shows but lost profit to being an inveterate fiddler. Big Brother in particular is bad, locking in piddling profits on Betfair instead of playing the long game.
2) Research more - with TV betting you can know at least as much as the bookies.
3) Back my methods - if some analysis shows results that really don't make any sense, I don't always back it. I should, the contrarian approach pays dividends.
4) Bigger stakes - Don't tell the missus!
5) Be quicker to get infomation - With shows like IACGMOOH and Big Brother (very interesting to see what will happen in the summer) shying away from the expense and potential loss of footage control of twenty four coverage. This means more infomation is coming from the press via offical releases and un/official leaks. I have recently set up RSS feeds and Google Alerts directing infomation to me as soon as it made public. In only few days it has been very effective. I intend to direct my TV betting news feed page to this site which should help you all as well as me (just working out how to do it most effectively as it currently sends me a lot of guff as well).
6) Look for new sources of infomation - Obvious really. I am currently looking at Twitter which I think could be a very useful source in the near future.
7) Continue with the site. I think it has improved my TV betting a lot so far (f***ing TV ratings betting excepted - I am still annoyed with myself).
8) Expand the site - I want a TV betting database and News Feed for starters.
9) Audit my methods - I hate the word audit but I need to find out what works and what doesn't.
10) Win more. A lot more.
Monday, 29 December 2008
You must get the best odds you can (as long as the bookie is solvent and trustworthy). This applies to betting generally and is non-negotiable. The only caveat being if a company limits your stake size.
Seven to go!
Friday, 26 December 2008
TV betting is a lot less reliant on statistics than other forms of betting. There is not a lot out there at the moment. This makes it difficult for the market makers to compile accurate odds. Usually they just follow Betfairs odds, but that can be a case of compounding mistakes. Betfairs markets are often obviously wrong as well.
So how to find the ricks in the market? Research. Youtube, Facebook, Yahoo Pipes (a current work in progress), Polls, Google, Twitter, Trendrr, Media Outlets, TellyBetting! Pro-punters will study horse form for hours using highly advanced methods so why not TV punters.
Once you have research, try to apply numbers to it. That way you will spot any trends early and this is the key to making regular, reliable money.
So, go hit the books!
First up, the graph on the left shows viewing share per channel. This in my opinion narrows it down to BBC1 shows only - goodbye Coronation Street and Dancing On Ice.
This leaves us realistically with Eastenders, Doctor Who, Strictly Come Dancing: Christmas Special and The Royle Family.
Doctor Who is a dark horse and came close last year - missing out by less than a million. I think it will come second this year and is possibly worth a cover bet. Strictly Come Dancing never attracts big, big audiences with it's 'specials' and is worth a lay on Betfair.
The Royle Family is second favourite in the betting. I think it is on 1/2 hour too late and possibly it is a show whose time has passed and is no longer attractive to all and sundry. Another lay.
This leaves us with 'Enders. It has topped four out of the last five years (Vicar of Dibley being exception) and suspect it will top again. The odds are not brilliant but good enough. Try to use a company which lumps both shows as one (eg Betfair).
Christmas Day 2008 Overnight Ratings
1 …. 14.3 (53.3%) …. Wallace and Gromit: A Matter of Loaf and Death (20:30) BBC1
2 …. 11.7 (50.5%) …. Doctor Who (18:00) BBC1
3 …. 11.5 (44.9%) …. EastEnders (21:00) BBC1
4 …. 10.0 (41.7%) …. The Royle Family (21:30) BBC1
5 …. 9.9 (40.6%) …. EastEnders (20:00) BBC1
6 …. 9.5 (47.1%) …. BBC News (17:45) BBC1
7 …. 8.6 (35.0%) …. Strictly Come Dancing Christmas Special 2008 (19:00) BBC1
8 …. 7.4 (30.0%) …. Coronation Street (19:00) ITV
9 …. 7.2 (39.8%) …. Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit (16:30) BBC1
10 … 6.4 (42.6%) …. The Queen (15:00)
Well done to Wallace and Gromit backers who backed the clay northerner at 14-1. A very comfortable win with a massive amunt of viewers. I didn't take into account the competing shows enough and paid the price. Annoying but hey, thats bettting. Incidentially, the odds on Eastenders also shifted inwards a lot and by Christmas Eve represented very poor value and probably a lay at around 1.39 on Betfair.
Thursday, 25 December 2008
So as gamblers how can we use it? The first thing is protect yourself against the 'Black Swan' that if occurs will wipe you out (or give your betting bank a bloody nose). Looking closely at the shows and trying and predict how things will pan out is normally good but you will miss things - being late to things is usually as bad due to the market having shifted - you can't sit in front of Big Brother for twenty hours a day (unless you are a student).
So the point is to not leave yourself overexposed on a single possibility - no matter how unlikely. If Manchester United go a goal down at home, laying 1-0 at 1000-1 is sensible because it won't happen due to very fixed rules. It TV betting it may happen at a producers whim - Nikki Graham re-entering the house, for example. Recently, the phone vote scandals and crackdowns have seen a reduction of these spontaneous and random rule changes that cost the viewers money but it still can and does happen.
Laying Sylvia to go as third eviction of Big Brother, as someone did last summer at 1000-1 cost someone badly - fine if you have £100,000 in your account but risky if you have £2000.
Diana Vickers getting Laryngitis is another good example of how fickle fate can be to the gambler. It killed her chances stone dead.
So in summary, if possible, prepare for anything.
Wednesday, 24 December 2008
Ten rules should be enough, although we may need less. Please leave your suggestions below as you will no doubt have other ideas which work well for you. A lot of the rules will apply to general gambling as well.
One rule, I will ignore is below is:
'Don't publish your betting research on the web and give away your edge.'
First Commandment coming soon!
Tuesday, 23 December 2008
I would like take this opportunity to wish you all a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
Enough of the niceties. I am not happy about the lack of a live feed on Celebrity Big Brother this year. I suspect it will be more unpredictable than ever - but from a betting point of view it's good, I suppose. It is becoming even more acceptable to be as outrageous as possible in order to gain notoriety and as a result, cash.
As an aside, I intend to start my TellyDatabase in the next few weeks. It will be a page(s) with relevant data for all TV betting shows. It should help betting on these shows enormously.
Sunday, 21 December 2008
TellyBetting strikes again! A few weeks ago in this post, TellyBetting plumped for Tom. The odds were about 6-1 at the time. I will hold my hands up and admit to laying off some profit when the polls closed before taking a big position on Betfair when Tom made the final.
The last dance was brilliant and Tom deserved the title in the end despite the somewhat inconsistent judging.
This series has a been a seriously good one for betting on and I will miss it while it's gone. I find it easy to read and I know many others do as well. I would love to see line betting next year on Betfair, but I doubt it will happen. The key early point for next year is to realise the judges have the power to clear the deadwood early on - no more John Sergeant's will happen next year.
I plan on requesting the voting figures from the BBC for Strictly if they don't release them - a Freedom Of Infomation Act request should do it. We can digest the results on this site at our leisure! I want the results from all the series!
Enjoy your winnings and roll on Celebrity Big Brother and Dancing On Ice!
I would also like some advice from any American Idol experts - I haven't watched it much but I realise this site should cover it.
Friday, 19 December 2008
Snippets like this mark the difference between Winners (me and you) and Losers (the non-researching general public)!
At bloody last, the final. Three left. Here is a quick summary of things so far, lifted from the BBC website.
Tom & Camilla
Tom & Camilla will perform their highest scoring Ballroom dance of the series - the Foxtrot; and their highest scoring Latin routine - the Salsa. If they are in the final two they will perform a group Viennese Waltz with the other finalists, and a show dance.
Based on performances up to and including semi-final
Average judges' score - 34.1
Average Ballroom score - 35.2
Average Latin score - 33.4
Total number of 10s - 4
Highest scoring dance - 39 for the Foxtrot in the quarter-final
Lowest scoring dance - 28 for the Cha Cha Cha in week 1.
Rachel & Vincent will perform two of their record-breaking dances of the series; the Rumba, which is their highest scoring Latin routine and a Foxtrot which was awarded a perfect 40 in week 10. If they are in the final two they will perform a group Viennese Waltz with the other finalists, and a show dance.
Based on performances up to and including semi-final
Average judges' score - 35.3
Average Ballroom score - 36.3
Average Latin score - 33.5
Total number of 10s - 18
Highest scoring dance - 40 for the Foxtrot in week 10
Lowest scoring dance - 30 for the Samba in week 5
Lisa & Brendan
Having achieved full marks for their ballroom dance just last week, Lisa & Brendan will perform their second highest scoring Ballroom dance - the Foxtrot. They will also aim to wow everyone with their top scoring Cha Cha routine. If they are in the final two they will perform a group Viennese Waltz with the other finalists, and a show dance.
Based on performances up to and including semi-final
Average judges' score - 34.1
Average Ballroom score - 36.6
Average Latin score - 31
Total number of 10s - 11
Highest scoring dance - 40 for the Quickstep in the semi-final
Lowest scoring dance - 22 for the Salsa in week 2
Remember to visit my page summarising the scoring history of the judges. It might help you in your betting. Good luck and remember to not bet too early.
Thursday, 18 December 2008
This video was knocking around for a while before the current series of Strictly Come Dancing started. I saw it early and like many others - including his family and friends by all accounts - backed accordingly.
Was this our answer all along?
This final is going to be very close. The odds should be closer than they are - excepting Lisa of course.
As said before, betting on the night on who you think is the best dancer on the night seems to be the best option.
If he makes the final (he will) I am going to go back in on Tom just before his final dance as I think his odds will plummet. The question then is lay off or not on Betfair?
Wednesday, 17 December 2008
Andy Murray - Has to win a Grand Slam to win it. Better odds backing that instead.
Lewis Hamilton - Not good value.
A. Cricketer - Possible, can't tell which one yet. Cook could be a lively outsider if he scores like Gooch did in 1990.
Ricky Hatton - Must beat Pacquiao to have a chance, which is unlikely.
David Haye - Is my current pick. He is class and good with the media.
Kelly Sotherton - The most likely athlete to win it.
Ian Poulter/Paul Casey/Justin Rose - see Andy Murray.
Laura Robson - Will win it within five years (This is something I would bet big on). She is the one possible real outsider for me at the moment for this year. She is increasingly looking like the real deal and the real deal in Women's Tennis can start causing damage at age 15 - Hingis, Austin, Kournilova etc. I can imagine her getting into Wimbledon via a wildcard and winning a few matches. The Daily Mail etc will champion her. Watch this space. Currently 100's but she will drift on Betfair - when she finally gets on the market!
No odds worth taking yet on anyone. Bide your time.
Tuesday, 16 December 2008
I think Rachel has a very real chance of overturning Tom's (presumed but strongly evidenced) phone vote lead. Another factor is when they announce that Tom won the phone vote last Saturday. Will it mobilise Rachel's fans to pick up the phone?
Although Rachel was overmarked earlier in the series, her breathtaking Argentine Tango was the dance of the series and will have won a lot of fans. The released X Factor results show that people switch allegiance easily and often (I will post on this in depth soon).
Personally, I am strongly green on Betfair on Rachel and Tom so I am in an enviable position. My advice is to lay Lisa on Betfair, who has no chance at all, then watch on Saturday before betting more on the outright winner.
Monday, 15 December 2008
Chris Hoy 283,630 votes
Lewis Hamilton 163,864
Rebecca Adlington 145,924
Ben Ainslie 35,472
Joe Calzaghe 34,077
Andy Murray 19,415
Nicole Cooke 18,256
Christine Ohuruogu 7,677
Bradley Wiggins 5,633
Rebecca Romero 4,526
As I said here, wait until the night itself. It was good advice. Adlington came across as rather dull. She also looked terrible which also isn't a great vote winner. Hoy was the consumate gentleman whilst Hamilton is just too much of a robot to enamour the public into picking up the phone.
The regional vote also played a part in my opinion. I am kicking myself for not acting on this obvious factor. Well done to Chris Hoy though.
Personally, I didn't bet in the end on the main event - just didn't fancy it in the end. The Overseas Personality was annoying (poor research on my part in not checking who votes) but Young Personality was a nice win.
One thing to remember for next year is that the main contenders odds dived when they were on the show, they then returned to pre-interview levels quickly. A cracking future trading opportunity if ever there was one.
I have not fully planned what to do with my bets now - excepting the fact that I greened up on the Winner's market as soon as possible. Risk Management is the name of the game here while they continue too make up the rules as they go along.
My advice is to green up any profit and watch It Takes Two in order to watch the dances. Regarding the outright, I feel Rachel has really closed the gap on Tom in the last two weeks in the eyes of the public - I will try to find some evidence of this later.
Regarding the dances on Saturday, Tom's modified Quickstep (Showdance) is a 40 in waiting but the others are less clear at the moment. The Fred Astaire twist with Tap section will go down a storm.
More soon, it's going to be a busy week!
Sunday, 14 December 2008
Personally, I have found it very interesting. Finding out about the dark world of blogs has been fun, as has playing around with HTML in order to create pointless but satisfying changes to the layout. I am planning on making a few more cosmetic alterations soon, in order to make the site easier to read. The site traffic has increased in the last few weeks so hopefully I am doing something right so far! I certainly think it is field of betting which will continue to grow in the next few years and infomation for gamblers is lacking.
Do I enjoy the shows? When there is no money on it, I sometimes watch but find them generally dull. With cash staked, it becomes an fascinating study into reading both the public and the editors thoughts and I love it.
I have a day job and a young family which keep me very busy and I often don't have enough time to update when I want - this massive weekend being a case in point. It would be awesome to increase the frequency (and quality?) of postings. To this end, one thing I would really like is to share the work in writing (and hopefully later on, running) the blog. I would like to get other people with an interest in TV betting to offer their ideas and advice. There are a lot of gamblers out there who bet on TV shows who win a hell of a lot more than me and who have their own successful techniques/theories.
If any readers fancy helping out with posting on TellyBetting please drop a quick line to firstname.lastname@example.org and I will be in touch. Who knows where it will lead!
Thursday, 11 December 2008
Rachel and Vincent - Argentine Tango 36.5 American Smooth 36.5
Tom and Camilla - Argentine Tango 35.5 Jive 35.5
Lisa and Brendan - Argentine Tango 34.5 Quickstep 36.5
As you can see from my average scores grid here, there are some high scoring dances here.
I like Rachel for overs on both dances, Tom overs in Jive and Lisa overs for Argentine Tango. In all honesty going overs on all bets would probably bring a nice profit.
The judges have too much power for my liking in this, so like a few people, I have backed Tom to win and to go tommorrow (as cover) - as in my opinion, if he makes the final he will win. This is better than sitting out and getting very bad odds if/when Tom makes the final.
Wednesday, 10 December 2008
The X Factors winners song this year is Hallelujah, originally done by Leonard Cohen (above) and rehashed by Jeff Buckley more recently.
Have a listen and a think who may do it well on finals night. It will probably decide who wins the series.
Tuesday, 9 December 2008
JLS are very popular here but the demographic using Google to search out the acts are not necessarily the same demographic that picks up the phone. Also JLS in itself is a more popular generic search term.
However, it is interesting to see the spikes each week as the show develops.
Monday, 8 December 2008
|The Top 3 nominees have been announced and I can't for the life of me work out how Aussie Laura Robson is 2/7 fav. Not taking anything away from her achievement of winning Jr Wimbledon but lets face it Annabel Croft won that! Born in Australia to Australian parents, moved to Hong Kong at 6 then comes to Britain and is now being hailed as the next big thing. Did very well but has hardly had any notable publicity since wimbledon.|
The other candidates are Tom Daley (won it last year so easily dismissed) and Eleanor Simmonds. She's availiable at 5/2 and for me the prices should be reversed. Golden girl of the Paralympics. Two Gold medals and a world record (sound familiar to the main award?) Has a glowing personality and has been paraded plenty of times since. On top of that, she is only ever likely to win the award in an Olympic year (will be too old when 2012 comes around).
The award is decided upon by a panel chaired by John Inverdale, who each have a vote for the winner via a secret ballot. Inverdale presented both Olympics and Wimbledon so is hard to predict. Other panel members are Jake Humphrey who was used a lot on Olympic presenting so could well favour Simmonds, Andy Martin, head of Olympic and Paralymic Developement for Youth Sports Trust(Simmonds almost definitely), Mike Atkinson, Dir. of comms and policy YST (probably vote same way when you consider 2 of the board members of YST are Duncan Goodhew, olympic smimming gold medal winner and Marc Wood, who won 12 swimming medals in the Paralympics), Henry Aikines-Aryeetey, former winner and promising sprinter who may well favour the Paralympic achievement, Kate Haywood, former winner and a fellow swimmer (Simmonds vote) and a rep from CBBC, BBC Switch and SPOTY, who have not been named.
By my analysis at least 4 of the nine votes should almost definitely go Simmonds way so only needs another one of the other 5 votes available to ensure win. Hence a lot of value in the 5/2 with Sad brokes!!
EDIT: Mr SOSPAN, you are very good! Thank you.
The total number of votes was statistically significant and pretty good (more than most political polls).
I think it demonstrates how important the edit is in reality shows and that online polls are a dangerous way to make decisions. The SCD poll below and the X Factor polls on this website confirm this. The edit in IACGMOOH and Big Brother is especially crucial.
They are certainly a consideration but don't use polls alone to make your mind up. Watching changes in polls in better though, as this gives youy an idea of momentum e.g. Diana Vickers poll numbers were static after her illness.
Quick update of the Yahoo SCD poll. Rachel has closed the gap to nothing. I don't think the poll is particularly valuable but it may be interesting to some of you. It probably shows Lisa will not win which may help you Betfair layers.
Sunday, 7 December 2008
A losing week. Lisa obliged but Austin didn't, so I registered a small loss there. This was compounded by my side bet on Tom going out being a loser.
I now feel cathartic!
This blog is fairly new and has got off to a very strong start results wise (I will tally up the overall results in the next few weeks). I am naturally very proud of this and this was probably causing me to close down decent positions on Betfair too early to lock in some profit. I will try to be braver from now on and not tinker!
An early thought for next week. Rachel to get highest score/overs on line betting in the Argentinian Tango. She did well in the normal Tango and with 'Vinthent' an expert in this, she will probably get 40. A bit of dusky eye shadow, a red dress and Vincent leading (a huge and often understated advantage) make this a bet I am confident on (unless the line is 39).
Friday, 5 December 2008
Tom has failed to progress as expected in the voting. He has stalled somewhat. I am laying him on Betfair and taking a small profit before deciding next week whether to go in again. Austin now has a kickass Latin dance for the final which has sorted his biggest weakness.
So, any good bets this week? Lets start at Boylesport's line bets, which have been very profitable so far. The oddsmakers are much less generous this week and good bets are harder to find. The only two bets I like are firstly over 36.5 for Austin in the American Smooth. I think he is good for 38+. Lisa's Waltz is a 40 in waiting, so go overs on that. Edit: The line has shifted on Lisa, she is no longer a good bet.
The eviction market is interesting this week. Although, Lisa v Rachel is the likely bottom two, Tom could fall into the bottom two in my opinion. If he does, it will be a toss-up who goes. The 6-1 looks big for eviction on Betfair.
Wednesday, 3 December 2008
Now Nicola has gone he has no-one to bounce off and annoy.
If you followed me in with a little bet on DVD consider laying it now.
EDIT: Good timing, that one!
Tuesday, 2 December 2008
Michael Phelps is the greatest Olympian ever (some say sportsman) who simply must win. Lovely bloke, who spent a lot of time with the BBC.
Usain Bolt put in possibly the greatest sports performances ever seen, obliterating 'Blue Riband' records. He is a massive personality as well. He was the defining memory of Beijing. A true 'fenom.' He simply must win.
There have been four joint awards in 46 years and this year will be another. The two are simply inseparable (If you do bet, check the rules regarding dead heats with your bookie before you bet). As they are inseparable, back Phelps. It is likely Bolt would win it again if he doesn't win this year - running 9.48 in London 2012 for example. Phelps can't lose it and the award maintain 100% credibility, while Bolt could.
But it will likely be a joint award.
EDIT: My mistake here was not researching who decided this award. It was a panel of reporters who were always more likely to side with the bigger attraction. It used to be BBC staff only. You live and learn!
First up is the main event itself. Let us look at some figures in relation to the three main contenders and only realistic winners - Lewis Hamilton, Chris Hoy and Rebecca Adlington.
Formula 1 has provided six winners in all. Swimming two and Cycling one. The interesting area is looking at winners in Olympic years. In Olympic years sice 1960, eight of twelve winners have been Olympians (Two of those twelve have been F1 drivers) - they don't always win in Olympic years.
Chris Hoy is the most successful UK Olympian since 1908. I can't have him as a winner though. Cycling is too minority a sport and he isn't very captivating to listen to.
Adlington comes across brilliantly on TV and will surely grab the housewives/Daily Mail vote by the sackload. Expect some puns involving shoes and a lot of screentime.
Hamilton is a strong favourite,involved in possibly the most exciting sporting moment of the year. The BBC have F1 next year so will push him more than they might have done in the past. He has a legion of petrolhead fans as well.
Don't spend a penny on this market until the night, when you can watch the edit and timings etc. Keep your eyes peeled in the press as well for campaigns, polls etc. For what it's worth, Adlington is my pick at the moment, but my powder is being kept dry.
Monday, 1 December 2008
1) A fair phone vote market across the board - no insider trading.
2) A decent Big Brother with a decent psychological edge.
3) A new monster TV show betting opportunity.
4) No more Dannii Minogue as judge.
5) A new X Factor judge.
6) Strictly Come Dancing back to Saturday night shows only.
7) More liquidity on Betting Exchange markets.
8) New analytical tools on the web.
9) Profit and lots of it.
10) More readers and guest writers with an interest in TellyBetting.
I am very annoyed with myself for not taking the over 4.5 10's at Boylesports. As soon as I saw it, I made a note to back it at 10-11 but plain forgot about it. A stupid, stupid mistake.
My original draft for this weeks predictions was just to back all overs with Boylesports on the line betting. That would have realised a handsome profit this week. Over analysis can sometimes cost me money, and this was a case of not backing my gut instincts doing just that. The analytical route is the one I have taken though, and is probably why you are reading TellyBetting as well.
I was very busy this weekend, so couldn't give my full attention to X Factor, I backed Ruth with a small amount to go as soon as I saw her first performance but at terrible odds as they drifted markedly straight away afterwards. I then went out and missed a massive price drop for Alexandra.
Personally, I often bet less as the series goes on as it sometimes becomes harder to read the winner and the evictions have less attractive odds as the oddsmakers finally start to catch on.