'I Say Britain, You Say Talent....'

The last seven Britain's Got Talent heats have gone to the person who is last up. The nature of the contest means that being last is a massive advantage.

This does not apply to the final which is over two shows.

My picks?

I finally bowed to pressure and backed Susan Boyle to win. I also have had three longshot side bets with Hollie Evans (massively overpriced), DJ Talent (pictured - he was very funny) and Julian Smith (has the story/drive to win it and you know he will be consistent).

I posted about Jamie Pugh being a contender a few weeks ago but luckily never backed him. He was useless wasn't he?

Analysis of Susan Boyle's popularity is difficult as the whole is still gabbling about her - while not voting for her. I am very confident she will win.

Britain's Got Talent - The Final 40

Here is the list. I think I will peruse it today at my leisure. There are 5-6 live contenders, the rest can be cut straight away. More later on.

Aidan Davis – Dancer
Ben and Becky – Ballroom Dancers
Brit Chix – Rock Band
Callum Francis – Musical Theatre
Darth Jackson – Michael Jackson/ Darth Vader Impersonator
DCD Seniors – Dance Troupe
Diversity – Street Dancers
DJ Talent – Rapper
Dream Bears – Comedy Dancers
Fabia Cerra – Burlesque Dancer
Faces of Disco – Comedy Dancers
Flawless – Street Dancers
Floral High Notes – Flower Arranging and Opera Singing
Fred Bowers – Breakdancer
Gareth Oliver – Comedy Impersonator
Good Evans – Family Singing Group
Greg Pritchard – Male Soprano
Harmony – Musical Theatre
Hollie Steel – Singer/ Dancer
Hot Honeyz – Dancers
Jackie Prescott and Tippy Toes – Dog Act
Jamie Pugh – Singer
Julia Naidenko – Belly Dancer
Julian Smith – Saxophonist
Kay Oresanya – The Living Saxophone
Luke Clements – Juggler/ Street Performer
Mama Trish – Drag Act
Martin Machum – Guitarist
MD Showgroup – Dancers
Merlin Cadogan – Physical Performer
Natalie Okri – Singer
Nick Hell – Street Performer
Shaheen Jafargholi – Singer
Shaun Smith – Singer
Stavros Flatly – Comedy Dancers
Sue Son – Violinist
Sugarfree – Street Dancers
Susan Boyle – Singer
The Barrow Boys – Wheelbarrow Dancing
2 Grand - Singers

Photo Finish

Well, there are only 2 runners not 3 but the picture should tell you what I think.

I have changed my mind today several times and truly don't know tonights winner.

My latest thought is that Adam has improved over Kris by 1.6% from last week. If this is true he wins by either 0.6% or 2.6% if Ryan Seacrests comments last week are true.

Or you could just toss a coin!

Anyway, Good luck all.

Another TellyBetting Triumph!

I do hope you are following me on this series. I may not have watched a minute of the series but reckon I have nailed it!

That was a very predictable result last night. I am a bit surprised at how Kris has reduced the gap to basically nothing and I make him a narrow favourite now to win the series. The stats showed that this week his numbers have shot off the scale and he is now up there with Adam in the silly numbers area.

I say I am surprised but we have had a run of hot favourites stalling near the end in the last year - Diana Vickers, Mini Me, Andrew Johnston, Austin Healey, Kathreya etc. The public definitely have an attention span/ boredom threshold of only 6-10 weeks before they seek out something new.

I think producers have learned this and like to encourage flip-flops and a more dramatic narrative.

What do with American Idol? Personally, I win big whatever, but I will probably go with 70% of profit in favour of Kris to win by shifting money on Betfair this week. I suggest you do the same - by clicking on the ads on this page, opening an account and betting away!

Good luck.

Kris Allen: Everybody's Second Favourite?

Here is a quick look at a graph from Votefair showing why I am confident of landing the first two.

Keen TV gamblers like to talk of the concept of Vote Transference - voting for someone else if your personal favourite goes. I have never been really convnced that it affects things that much but others disagree with me and always take it into account.

The way that the Votefair ranking has Danny so low suggests that he is nobody's second favourite - you either vote for him or you don't. So if Vote Tranference concept is a correct assumption, not much will be transfering Danny's way.

A caveat though (isn't there always one), the middle America Christian voters are not represented well on these research polls. Many millions wait to vote until the final night. The religious phone vote powder may have been kept dry.

Fascinating stuff, isn't it?

Where Will Adam Lambert Finish?

This picture probably says it all. I know last week there was a shock but this is a fairly regular phenomenon in TV betting. People either seem to vote tactically or not at all thinking that this person is a shoe in. Boom - a headline is created.

What then happens if they stay in is usually a large vote boost the following week. Adam Lambert will get this massive vote boost this week, of that I am sure.

He can be backed at 1.36 on Betfair at the moment. Is this a good bet? I don't know but I think Kris Allen is closing fast. These shows are won and lost on the final night so nothing is concrete as yet.

Me? Well, I backed Adam and Kris back in the distant past so I am not too bothered with the final weeks posturing. I am confident of a good payday as I am sure Danny will be first out. Personally, if pushed to say, I also think Adam will win comfortably.

I still haven't watched the show! The experiment is nearly over.

American Idol Google Trends

Here are the Google Trends results for the final three American Idol contestants.

In all honesty there is not a lot of any significant interest to comment on but there you go anyway.

Big Brother: No Live Feed?

Write to your MP, trash Endemol's HQ, daub slogans on Davina's car.

Rumours are abounding that there will be no live feed this year.

This is annoying as the insiders will clean up in the betting. What I don't understand is the contestants will be recorded anyway so surely it wouldn't kill them to pay an editor or two to stay up all night.

The whole point of the Big Brother 'experiment' was the live feed thing - this could be the beginning of the shows death throes.

American Idol Buzz Meter

This link is the Yahoo Buzz Meter. It is a superb site dedicated to the more analytical approach this site advocates.

Go take a look.

Votefair American Idol Graph

I haven't posted this sites results for a while. Here are the current stats.

A shift to Alison is fairly evident although I am not convinced you can draw too many conclusions from this.

I still haven't watched a minute of the show!

I Declare The Big Brother Silly Season Officially Open

Silly season is here. This article in the Daily Star has to win the award for shoddiest journalism in 2009.

The 'shifty' foreigners will steal all our money.

I must try this making up stuff to get more readers malarkey. What phrases will bring in the most readers via Google? Allison Iraheta topless? Davina sex video? Amanda Holden naked? Zoe Salmon swimsuit shot(Hang on, I've done that already), Simon Cowell gay photo?

If I get 100,000 hits on this post this blog will be going downhill more often!

Susan Boyle Being Squeezed?

Britain's Got Talent is getting interesting. Jamie Pugh exploded onto the show on Saturday. Look at his appearance here. It is very good.

Can he catch the Boylemeister? I think he can.

Looking back, George Sampson won last year because he wanted it so much it was visceral. Viewers liked that a lot and he stormed home despite being as low as 40's on Betfair on the final night. Paul Potts also ticked the same boxes. Jamie Pugh also seems to have that need to win with a bit of humililty and fragility . I prefer his backstory to Susan Boyle - who also has peaked too early. He also has a regional vote which is always good to have.

A word of caution though. These shows are swinging more and more as the producers understand better how to manipulate us. Remember, nothing is certain until the final night. Good luck though.