Thursday 16 April 2009

Susan Boyle: Phenomenon

I am raging at missing out on the 5's that were available at Totesport. I saw them and I wasn't thinking - assuming that there will be other live contenders to come.

I even thought that her price would come in a lot and still didn't act on it!

Is it all over? I don't know but £250 at 5-1 would have put me in a strong position.

Is she a bargain now at just over evens? Again, I don't know but I suspect she will drift a little in the next 4 weeks.

Good luck if you pile in.

Wednesday 15 April 2009

Important TellyBetting Announcement

I am very pleased to announce a new poster on this blog - see below.

Zoomraker is one of the United Kingdom's foremost TV betting experts who also takes the highly analytical approach to his TellyBetting with highly profitable results.

This is a real honour for this site and I am hoping his superior knowledge of statistical analysis will open new doors for us all.

Votefair American Idol Scores

A quick post today. Here are some Votefair results for this week.

Adam is back in front this week.

DialIdol Scores For Current Favourites

It is hard to say how well a contestants dial score correlates with there actual vote ranking. Last weeks elimination demonstrates this, with the lowest scorer not even being in the bottom three.

If there is any value in the dialidol data it would appear the race is currently between Gokey and Lambert.

It should be remembered that dialidol excludes text votes and only represents a certain type of voter, possibly towards the geekier/fanatical end of the spectrum as opposed to casual viewer.

The following article casts further doubt on the validity of dialidol data.

Tonights elimination will be interesting but I don't think I will be getting involved.

Wednesday 8 April 2009

American Idol: A Big Week

Well, this Adam Lambert chap is running away with American Idol.

I thought he was peaking last week but he apparently blew everyone away this week. His RTSI went off the scale and unbelievably the overall trend is still one of increasing popularity. This is almost unheard of after this amount of time.

Kris Allen's internet noise has bombed even more after he blew the graveyard slot. However, I think he will stay this week at least.

I am not betting on this but I think Anoop may go later.

So, if you haven't backed Adam, do you pile in? In a word - No. His price will drift out again a little. Don't miss it then though.

Friday 3 April 2009

Kris Allen: More Evidence

Here is some evidence to back up my assertion below that there has been a shift in recent days.

Get on Kris while you can. He is the value in the contest.

Thursday 2 April 2009

Dial Idol: For You Live Show Gamblers

People on Betfair have been using this to bet on evictions. It claims to have a remarkable success rate of 97%.

I don't watch the show live and haven't bet on evictions yet but people have been making very good money using it. I suggest you join them.

The details are in the picture on the left.

Go take a look here.

American Idol: Time To Make A Move

I have been keeping my eye on this shows stats (still haven't watched it) and this week there has been a subtle shift or two in my internet models. Previously, I had traded out of all positions after there being no value but it may be time to bet like men!

1) Adam Lambert - although miles ahead, has finally peaked. His traffic is reducing slowly. I still have him as a worthy favourite but it looks like he can be beaten by.....

2) Kris Allen - had a big jump this week in the stats. His traffic has doubled in one week. He is the only other contestant going the right way.

I am nicely green on both on Betfair and am ignoring the rest.

Now we wait!