Monday, 10 December 2018

12.10 Lingfield, Wednesday, December 12

Family Fortunes on this occasion. The son of Paco Boy has been raised 2lb for being beaten in a 0-80 contest at Kempton last month, but finished strongly on that occasion after suffering an interrupted passage in the closing stages and looks worth an interest on his return to Lingfield, where’s he run well in the past.
In the Follow Top Tipsters at Sun Racing Handicap (12.10) at Lingfield on Wednesday, the top two on the racecard look the pair on which to focus our attention, with preference for topweight

He’s won just once over a mile, when just holding on, off a 5lb lower mark, in a 0-75 contest at Kempton two starts ago but, having been tried over a mile and a quarter a couple of times by new trainer Michael Madgwick, he should have no problem getting home. That’ll be especially true if he’s held up, as he’s been on two of his three starts under apprentice Scott McCullagh.


Indeed, if that is the case, Lingfield should suit his ‘closing’ style and the faster they go up front the better for him. The absence of an obvious front runner – notwithstanding Matterhorn, who made the running last time, and Deadly Accurate, who has done so in the past – is a slight worry, with an unsatisfactory, ‘messy’ race always a possibility but, hopefully, Family Fortunes can be seen to best effect and delivered with a telling turn of foot in the closing stages.


Selection: Lingfield 12.10 Family Fortunes to win 4/1

Monday, 3 December 2018

An early look at the 2019 Grand National

We're a way off the Aintree 2019 Grand National right now, but this highly anticipated event always seems to creep up on us before we know it. It won't be long until the Cheltenham Festival and from there the Grand National is just around the corner. Of course millions of us tuned in for the 2018 race which was an enthralling spectacle eventually won by 10/1 Tiger Rolls ridden by Davy Russell, trained by George Elliot and owned by Giggintowns House Stud (also owners of 2016 winner Rule the World). A close second (Tiger Rolls won by a head) was Pleasant Company ridden by David Mullins at 25/1, and 11 lengths behind in third place was Bless the Wings at 40/1. Prize money was £500,000, £200,000 and £100,000 respectively. One of the early favourites, Blaklion, was brought down at the very first hurdle, by another horse. That speaks to the unpredictability of this steeplechase event.

The 2019 Grand National will be the 172nd time the race has been run, offering a clear idea of how much gravitas and history surround the event. There are Grand National guides aplenty already online centring on all aspects of the 2019 Grand National, https://www.grandnational.fans/ for instance  The Grand National festival will start on 4th April, with Ladies Day on 5th and the main event on 6th April. It could be argued that it's too early to deduce much about the 2019 National at this stage, but in my view part of the build up and excitement of the race comes from watching it all piece together over time and having a view on how it unfolds along the way. That's part of the joy for racing fans and those looking spot a good win or each way prospect.

There are understandably some familiar races already lined up as potential winners for the 2019 event. Tiger Roll of course gets a look in (at 20-1 currently) on account that he won the year previous. If that's not a meaningful credential I don't know what is. That said winning the race two years in a row is exceedingly rare, so that alone would be one for the history books. An equally obvious entry is Pleasant Company, who'll be hoping to go one better for George Elliot. One for Arthur, winner of the 2017 race,  may feature too. Others given a hope at this early stage include Bellshill, Step Back, Ballyoptic and General Principle. Most are currently available within the 20 - 301 range on account that the race and who is taking part is yet to flesh out. We'll be sure to return the Grand National in the weeks ahead with further thoughts!

 

Saturday, 1 December 2018

Deontay Wilder v Tyson Fury

This is a tough one to call in my view. The Deontay Wilder v Tyson Fury fight in Las Angeles is certainly an intriguing match up. Fury has - with the exception of his two recent poor tune up fights - been out for years now and didn't exactly look after himself in the mean time. While suffering from mental health issues he ballooned to 10st more than his current 256.5lbs weigh-in weight. It certainly shows intent and dedication that he's made it back down to this weight in a year though, and there is an undeniable quality to his 2015 win over Wladimir Klitschko so he's a proven quantity. Let's remember too, that he's still undefeated.

Deontay Wilder is a man in search of a big name to fight. Despite being heavyweight champion of the world since early 2015 and an enviable 39 knock outs from 40 wins, with no loses, he still doesn't have the name recognition of many heavyweight fighters of the past. So much so that Tyson Fury featured in a 15 minute video where he walked around  LA asking people if they know who Deontay Wilder is. Few did. Wilder will see this as a big opportunity being that Fury has had years out and may well be ring rusty or past his best. It's a calculated gamble and we'll soon know whether it has paid off for him.

The reach and weight advantage is most certainly with Tyson Fury. He's 256lbs to Wilder's 212lbs. Wilder holds immense power though, with what is described as a 'murderous right hand' - a right hand that's ended all but one of his fights within the distance. Power aside though, it can be said that he's a somewhat one dimensional fighter and so if Fury can minimise the threat of a big punch he's likely to grow in confidence the longer the fight goes on.

Taking all this into account I'd say that logically I'd either expect the fight to end early at the right hand of Wilder, or later to Fury, possibly on points. The betting odds follow the thread that there are many unknowns in this encounter. Wilder is 4/6 to win, with Fury at 13/10. William Hill offer 7/2 for either fighter to be knocked down in rounds 1-3. I'd be tempted by that really, with the numerous factors that are at play here. Fury is 9/4 to win on points. That might appeal to some. I'll not be betting personally, just seeing what happens in what is bound to be an entertaining affair in one way or another.

Best Odds Casino Games


The entertaining and highly rewarding nature of casino games has continuously managed to spark interest in new and more massive player traffic. This has become all the more evident with the appearance of online casino platforms, especially due to their convenient accessibility via diverse electronic devices – PCs, laptops, smartphones, tablets and the likes.

If you follow this url you’ll notice that every game differs in terms of gameplay elements, stake limits and, most importantly payouts. While every game at a casino floor is developed in a way that the house edge guarantees profit for the operator, there are those that offer players better chances of winning than others.

House edge is expressed in percentages, and practically represents the guaranteed profit a casino operator makes out of each stake you place at the respective game – the higher the house edge, the lesser the chance for players to hit a win. Return to player percentage, on the other hand, indicates the amount players are theoretically expected to win back, with higher percentages guarantying higher returns. Ultimately, novice casino players are advised to start off their experience with one of the following games, offering the best odds, and thus, highest winnings.



Blackjack

Blackjack is one of the most popular table games at the casino floor, both for its simple yet fun gameplay, and the odds that come with it. Unlike poker, which is still first place when it comes to player appeal, blackjack players are only up against the dealer and don’t have to worry about competition coming from the rest of the players at the table.

All players need to do is hit a hand higher than the dealer’s without going over 21. Considering that most blackjack variants offer a 99% RTP, this is bound to happen fairly often and reward players with the appropriate payouts.



Roulette

The roulette tables at a casino floor have always been a symbol of commotion and excitement, as players tend to gather around, place bets and wait to see where the ball will drop. Novice players are advised to do the same in order to experience the roulette gameplay and at the same time stake their hard-earned cash at one of the games with the best odds.

Namely, roulette offers players about a 50-50 chance of winning, although this is slightly reduced by the field ‘0’ in European Roulette, and a bit more in American Roulette, as the wheel contains a ‘0’ and ‘00’.



Craps

Nevertheless, players looking for the core of the casino floor fun and rewarding experience should head to the craps tables. The betting table offers many different ways to place a bet, but don’t let that confuse you – novice players are advised to stick to the simpler bets such as the odds bet, pass/don’t pass, come or don’t come.

These bets offer as high as 99% RTP, which is why players are advised to bet as high as possible to make the most of the game’s rewarding potential.


Sunday, 25 November 2018

3.00 Musselburgh, Monday, November 26


Jockey Alan Johns celebrated his hundredth winner as a professional when Cap St. Vincent won the novices’ handicap chase at Ludlow 11 days ago and can make the long journey north to Musselburgh on Monday worthwhile by winning the Saltire Festival Handicap Chase (3.00) on the same horse.



A Paul Nicholls’ ‘castoff’, Cap St. Vincent failed to trouble the judge in four starts over hurdles for Tim Vaughan last season, but made a promising start to his chasing career at Southwell in October, finishing third of 14, albeit beaten 16½ lengths, in a novices’ handicap chase won by stable companion Chozen, and confirmed that promise last time. An 8lb rise for his 8-length defeat of previous easy winner Centreofexcellence looks fair enough and, although the value of that form has yet to tested, Cap St. Vincent can reasonably be expected to improve again on just his third start over fences and his eighth in all.


In recent years, Vaughan has invested heavily in unraced, or lightly raced, young horses and, while Cap St. Vincent doesn’t have a traditional National Hunt pedigree, he looks just the type to do well for his new connections. The minimum trip of 2 miles – or 1 mile 7 furlongs and 182 yards, in this case – on good going, on a sharp track clearly suits the son of top-class miler Muhtathir and he must have every chance of becoming winner #102 for Alan Johns, who already has a healthy 2-9 (22%) strike rate in steeplechases at the East Lothian course.


Selection: Musselburgh 3.00 Cap St. Vincent to win 6/4