Monday 27 April 2015

Floyd Mayweather Jr v Manny Pacquiao

On Sunday May 3rd at 5:30am UK time you'll either be having a late one, or waking up at the crack of dawn (I'm guessing the former) to watch the highly anticipated Floyd Mayweather Jr v Manny Pacquiao match. Following several attempts, it's hard to believe the fight we've all been waiting for is finally going ahead. Many will say that it's years too late, Mayweather is now 38, but it's still a mouth watering prospect for boxing fans in a time where super fights are considered a thing of the past.  The encounter has been dubbed the fight of the century and could gross a staggering $400million, so I doubt Pacquiao will grumble too much at the 60-40 split in Mayweather's favour.

Most bookmakers currently have Mayweather (47-0, 26 KOs)    at 1/2 and Pacquiao (57-5-2, 38 KOs) at 15/8 to win, which matches up with pundit predictions for the most part. Mayweather's flawless record is largely down to his defensive genius. He's just so hard to hit. Excellent hand speed, accuracy and the ability to adapt to whatever his opponent throws at him make him a formidable opponent.

Mayweather's desire and ability to avoid getting hit is at odds with Pacquiao's ability to throw and often land damaging combinations. That's what makes this a fascinating match up. Some of them are bound to get through, even if Mayweather does display his trademark first class defense. Pacquiao's record in recent years though has some arguing that he's a fighter in decline, so will he be able to land enough to make it count? He does gives it everything and is relentless, so it's all about making those power punches count.

The way I see it, it will likely be an all action encounter, but neither fighter has much of a knock out record over recent years, so I'd expect it to go the distance. As much as I'd like a Pacquiao win, it's hard to see beyond Mayweather's boxing intelligence and hand speed so at 8/11 he's not a bad bet. Make sure you recover the draw though. This is boxing after all.

Bet: Mayweather by Decision or Technical Decision - 8/11  Draw - 20-1

Monday 20 April 2015

Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Tips

On May 23th 2015 the international music event we love to hate is back once again. Since Terry Wogan hung up his hat in recent years we instead get to see Graham Norton find fun and frivolous ways to take the mickey out of most of Europe... and Israel... and even Australia this year as a one off (no I'm not joking).

 The show, the 60th Eurovision Song Contest, is beamed to us live from Vienna, Austria, on account of last year's winning anthem Conchita Wurst's bond-esque 'Rise Like a Phoenix'. Wurst's win caused quite a stir in Russia where they toyed with the idea of launching their own equally dire Eurovision style song contest in protest. Even so, the song topped Russian download charts two days after the competition.

This year we currently already have a short favourite, Måns Zelmerlöw - Heroes. This entry from Sweden ticks the appealing 'dance anthem' box, but at just 6/4 there's not an awful lot of meat on the bone. Norway's moody entry Mørland & Debrah Scarlett - A Monster Like Me hold's more appeal for me, so would be my tip and it's currently a massive 55-1 on Betfair at time of posting. It's a really genuinely good track. It really comes down to what kind of song the judges and viewers take to, a David Guetta sound of 'Heroes' or 'A Monster Like Me' which is in a similar vein to Christina Aguilera and A Great Big World's "Say Something". There for top 3,4,5 type bets with some bookmakers. I can definitely see 'A Monster Like Me' being value there.

It's still very early days of course so these are just preliminary thoughts rather than firm betting tips. You'll notice that I haven't even mentioned the UK's entry being in with a chance. Take a listen and find out why.

Tuesday 14 April 2015

Celebrity Big Brother 2015 Rumours

Well, it's that time of year again where a bunch of half mad individuals you recognise but can't quite put a face to the name are forced to occupy the same place together. No I'm not talking about the houses of parliament, but instead the Big Brother house.

There are already a thousand and one 'rumoured' housemates to

Sunday 12 April 2015

General Election 2015: The Current Picture

The guardian's Election Poll Projection collates all available polls of note and attempts to draw conclusions with regard to how many seats each party will win come election day. UK polling isn't anywhere near as spot on as in the States, with constituency polling limited at best. That said, it's still possible to build a broad idea of the impact of voting intentions, debates and so on.

The biggest surprise in this elections polling so far, is how it's been stuck in deadlock territory for so long. In fact  so much so that at time of posting Labour and the Conservatives are both projected to win 271 seats. Unless there is a major shift before the election, or the projections are way out, a little movement this way or that in the polls seems largely academic as neither party will be able to secure a majority.

With that in mind, it all comes down to who is willing to deal with whom to secure either a coalition government or alternatively vote by vote agreements under a minority government. Should current projects be accurate it's very difficult to see how Tories would cobble together a coalition to begin with. Even an ambitious/fanciful pact with the Liberal Democrats + UKIP + DUP wouldn't get them over the line. As for Labour, an SNP coalition would likely comfortably see them gain a majority, though politically that move might not be the most popular in England. A Labour minority government operating vote by vote with the SNP could feasibly work though.

Who out of the Tories and Labour gain the most seats could at least symbolically impact the likelihood of this outcome or that. Currently the bookmakers have a Labour minority government at 2-1, a Conservative minority at 3-1 and a repeat of the Tory-Lib Dem coalition at 7-1. Whoever out of Labour or Conservatives  claims the authority to form a government will need to get their Queen' Speech and Budget voted through first. It could get messy.

Monday 6 April 2015

Grand National Tips

Here at TellyBetting we're not only about reality TV. Any televised event, sports based or otherwise is fair game. With that in mind how could we resist casting an eye upon one of the nations most treasured sporting event, The Grand National.

The roar of the crowds is almost overwhelming at Aintree during the Grand National and this Saturday those at the track and the rest of us glued to our TV screens will get to be part of that excitement. 40 horses or there about will once again cover this 4 mile+ course, jumping and hopefully clearing 30 fences over two circuits.

There have been some big priced national winners over the years, many highlighted on the outsider horse racing blog, which was bound to be the case I suppose since the race has been run since 1836. Who can forget the 100-1 winner Mon Mome in 2009 and even more recently Auroras Encore at 66-1 in 2013.

As for this year, we have a short priced favourite in the form of last year's Irish National winner Shutthefrontdoor. Hotly tipped, there's no doubting that it's in with a shot, but at 7-1 there's not really a lot of meat on the bone. Betting on the Grand National is one of the few national betting events that is more than often all about the fun even if you have placed a small wager on it. With that in mind, I'd rather bet on an outsider or two in the hope of winning big. 

The bigger priced selections I'm going to go for are First Lieutenant at 33-1 and Dolatulo at 40-1. First Lieutenant, ridden by Nina Carberry, who would become the first ever female jockey to ride a Grand National winner, still has some mileage in the tank. Dolatulo, winner of the Rowland Meyrick Chase on Boxing Day looks to hold promise too. Formally trained by Paul Nicholls and now Warren Greatrex, who's had a great season, Dolatulo is handy over the fences and in with a shot here.

Both are a bit of a punt to be honest, but with a field of near 40, if your luck's in it's in and if it's not, it's not.

Enjoy the race!

Sunday 5 April 2015

'Leaders Debate' and 'The Voice' Follow Up

Not a bad few results of late. The Voice 2015 final went very much along the lines put forward in our Winning Act Betting Tips post, where we suggested fireman Stevie McCrorie would win. I definitely feel that Stevie McCrorie's backstory aided his victory in a series where the brief nature of the live stages often means that it's hard to draw an affinity to any of the contestants. He did have a sterling voice too though as did the runner up Lucy O'Byrne. did a great job of promoting his act and she and McCrorie are totally different so there was an aspect of 'apple and oranges' about it. It's a shame the BBC won't release voting percentages as I'd love to have seen how close the result was.

Regarding our Leaders Debate Bingo post, it was slightly mixed fortunes. We suggested that Nigel Farage would win the debate, when the actual 'poll of polls' result showed that it was pretty much a three way tie between David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nigel Farage with the SNP's Nicola Sturgeon narrowly behind (though she did win one of the individual polls).

We had more success on the 'bingo' tips, where if a certain phrase is mentioned during the debate, you win. "Hard working families" was said during the debate as was "Tony Blair" which we highlighted at generous odds of 13/2. This bet was a great opportunity because with seven leaders involved they all spoke at a mile a minute in order to make the most of their airtime.

Wednesday 1 April 2015

Leaders' Debate Bingo

Tomorrow it's the televised leaders debate, taking place in Salford. Leaders from seven political parties (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP, SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party. No Northern Irish presence) take to the stage to tell us why they deserve our vote. Many will no doubt avoid tuning in, others will have a sick bag handy, but some of us will brave it.

 Much has been said about the debate running order in recent days, with David Cameron getting much later slots in the debate, effectively giving him the right of reply over Ed Miliband on numerous occasions, and the 'last word' right at the very end of the program. Miliband is well positioned, physically at least, for this debate though (podium order: Natalie Bennett, Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage, Ed Miliband, Leanne Wood, Nicola Sturgeon and David Cameron). He also exceeded expectations, according to the polls, in Sky's recent Cameron vs Miliband interview.

Current odds have both David Cameron and Ed Miliband at 4/1 to win the leaders' debate with the other party leaders ranging from 10/1 to 25/1.  Bar one of course because the favourite to win the debate is in fact UKIP's Nigel Farage at 7/4. I can't say I'm surprised really, as despite the polarising  politics, he does know how to hold himself. He's calm, forthright and focused. A populist or some would say opportunist. The anti politician. Unlike the Labour and Tory leaders who are neck and neck in the polls, he doesn't really have to worry about losing a point or two and being deemed a failure. This is an opportunity for UKIP and I can see why, with the vote being split so many ways, Farage would be favourite to win this debate.

Should you be for up for a game of Leaders' Debate Bingo, I suggest betting on the 'to say at any time' phrase market. This is a long debate, so I'm surprised to see what appear to be some quite generous odds on the face of it. 11/8 for the term 'hard working families' seems generous for instance, as does a mention of Tony Blair at 13/2. It's a 2 hour long debate. I recommend choosing a handful of these.

Selections: Nigel Farage to win debate 7/4

The Voice 2015 : Winning Act Betting Tips

This Saturday sees the grand final of 2015's The Voice UK. As usual the format shifts with such regularity (blind auditions, battle phase, knockout stage, live shows) that it's hard to form a firm view of the front runners until very late in the day. A couple of the potential winner in my view were kicked out by Sir Tom Jones in the knock out rounds. Coming into the final Rita Ora is the only judge without an act in the final, which explains her down in the dumps expression at the end of the previous week's show.

These are the current odds for the remaining four acts:

 Current Odds
Stevie McCrorie9/10
Sasha Simone4
Lucy O'Byrne6
Emmanuel Nwamadi7

I'd say that these betting odds about right to be honest. I'm very surprised that Emmanuel Nwamadi has made it this far in the competition. While his super low, then high voice is something of a novelty, I do feel that he's butchered a couple of songs at various points and didn't exactly shine during the song with Stevie McCrorie and judge Ricky Wilson last week. His only real chance of winning is if the other acts under perform and Ricky picks the perfect song choice for him. We've seen with these shows time and time again, that picking the perfect song choice is always a bit hit and miss.

I'll be interested to see what the ever eccentric has up his sleeve for his only remaining act Lucy O'Byrne. His leftfield approach has reaped rewards in the past. That said I'm not at all surprised to see firefighter Stevie McCrorie as clear favourite at 9/10. He has a stellar voice as well as a good backstory and story ark. The latter is especially important in The Voice as the format means that we fly through the various stages without really getting to know the first thing about those taking part.

Bet Selection: Stevie McCrorie  9/10