Saturday 29 November 2008

Tonights X Factor Song Choices - Britney Spears night

Alexandra Burke
- Toxic by Britney
- Listen by Beyonce

Diana Vickers
- I'm Not A Girl, Not Yet A Woman by Britney
- Everybody Hurts by REM

Eoghan Quigg
- Sometimes by Britney
- Together by High School Musical

Ruth Lorenzo
- I Love Rock and Roll by Britney
- Always by Bon Jovi

- Hit Me Baby One More Time by Britney
- You Light Up My Life by Whitney Houston

Strictly Come Dancing: Average Dance Scores

You lucky people.

I have a real treat for you here. The average scores for all the dances, including 10's information and high and low scores. This is the only such table on the net.

It should be good for predicting 10's over the next few weeks as well as aiding line betting. Have a look, there are some interesting numbers there.

Friday 28 November 2008

GMTV Poll: Who do you think should be booted off The X Factor this weekend?(take with a large pinch of salt)

I think the way to analyse this is to think of this as a list of how much emotion is stirred by the singer.

High scorers in this will also get more phone votes, in my opinion.

Strictly Come Dancing Bets - Week 11

Boylesports has it's line bets up. Let us take a look.

Austin and Erin - Foxtrot and Paso Doble - 34.5 - Overs on Foxtrot is the bet here. It is a traditionally high scoring dance. For Paso, the line looks good.

Tom and Camilla - Waltz and Samba - 35.5 for the Waltz is high but I can see him getting 38+ for this. The Samba bar is 34.5 and I would go in on this for overs as well. He has rhythm and a sense of fun and should do well.

Good luck.

Is the X Factor a number? - 4

Sorry, I have not posted on this particular topic in a while. There is a lot of TV betting at the moment and I simply don't have enough time to research this area. I plan to finish this off during a quiet betting time and run the formula through past series results to perfect it.

Regional Voting (RV) is a difficult one to quantify. Certain regions, those with a real or perceived strong regional identity can vote en bloc to support their own.

Northern Ireland residents in particular, are quick to pick up the phones. The current darling is Eoghan Quigg, who despite being utterly terrible, is proving popular. Leon Jackson would not have won last years X Factor if he was from England. There are many other examples.

X Factor is shown in the Republic of Ireland as well which is worth knowing.

So how to analyse this. To start, I propose that if the contestant is from:

Northern Ireland - multiply final X Factor number by 1.3
Scotland - multiply by 1.4
Wales - multply by 1.1
English areas with a strong regional accent - multiply by 1.05

These numbers will probably change with analysis.

Previous Voting Numbers (PV) - We would love these numbers. Hopefully at the end of the current series we will get them released. We will have to manage without for the moment.

More on this topic soon.

Wednesday 26 November 2008

X Factor Yahoo Poll Update

IACGMOOH Poll Results

Here is a rough chart showing the Yahoo Poll results so far for IACGMOOH. I know it is incomplete (no DVD and Mallet) but I reckon it will help predict evictions and winners. I know I won't back him, but I wouldn't oppose Joe at the moment looking at this.

Regarding eviction, there may be some decent value now the immunity cards are gone.

Also not so good was the return of the insider money on Betfair. The late plunge on Kilroy was suspicious, reminiscent of George Sampson's late plunge in the final of Britain's Got Talent.

Don't get caught out by this.

Monday 24 November 2008

Joe Swash: To back or not to back?

Joe is the strongest favourite in years in IACGMOOH. He has played a flawless game so far and looks a comfortable winner even at short odds.

However, I am not backing him. IACGMOOH is historically a very unstable show to bet on. It is even harder without a live feed to watch.

Matt Willis came from nowhere on the last night to win and it could happen again. Joe's odds offer very little value and should be ignored. My advice? Hold fire until this time next week on the winners market and concentrate on taking a contrarian approach in the eviction markets. Myself? I have had a few quid on David (could do well) at well over 100's.

Weekend Review

Quick post as late for work. A good weekend for Strictly Betting with three of four of the line bets coming in. The Strictly judges have been very poor this year in my opinion with marked inconsistencies. Tom is the best dancer by a mile but they are trying to engineer a close competition.

John Sergeant did not dance on Saturday and I was worried when Betfair settled my bets as losers. However, I emailed them beforehand to clarify what would happen if he didn't dance as the reply said his bets would be voided. I emailed them about the losing bets and they refunded the bets I still have them down as losers. If you lost money on him - complain, their wording was confusing and inaccurate.

The whole market should have been voided when he withdrew and restarted afterwards.

However, I can't complain as SCD is the number one betting show in my opinion.

Friday 21 November 2008

Strictly Come Dancing: Week 10

Boylesports line betting is out and here are my stand out bets after watching It Takes Two.

Rachel and Vincent average 33.33 in Ballroom and have showed marked improvement in rcent weeks. I like the over 33.5 for their Foxtrot.

Austin and Erin have averaged 31.67 for Latin. The 34.5 line looks a big ask.

Lisa and Brendan are confident this week. They average 35.33 for Ballroom and should pass 33.5 doing the Quickstep.

Finally, Tom and Camilla have a big ask at over 34.5 but I think they will do it. I think Tom is most likely to get a 10 of all the dancers this week.

Good luck, whatever you do.

Wednesday 19 November 2008

ITV lend a hand

This cheeky little link is to the IACGMOOH Celeb Tracker. It is explained rather nicely by the clipping on the left.

It goes without saying that this is a great way to see who is getting the most exposure. This will be useful in all markets.

Thank you ITV, you have saved us a lot of work! Go take a look.

Tuesday 18 November 2008

Tom Chambers to win Strictly Come Dancing

I haven't checked the Yahoo Strictly Polls in a while. People were not voting much and so I thought it wasn't worth looking at.

Tonight I did, and boy things are changing. The graph below shows a snapshot of votes on certain dates. I do realise there is a big gap in the last two dates but the key thing is Tom Chambers gradient. He was a nonentity at the start but has accelerated to third top and if you extrapolate the gradient he will go higher still. This is a series winning trend in my opinion.

I think chinless Tom is the best all round dancer in the competition but I was concerned about his popularity. This allays those fears. He now has the hallmark of a winner.

John Sergeant is of course top and running away but he will probably get eliminated during the semi stage with some cheeky vote-rigging by the judges - Anyway, I have him onside massively and advised you to do the same a few weeks ago. I have also closed out of my Jodie bet with a very small loss (£2).

I am excited about this although I am annoyed I closed out of my early bet on him. I was fiddling for no reason.

Monday 17 November 2008

This would be nice on your desktop!

Harvest Media is the company behind the voting on most of our TellyBetting shows. The website is as expected but it does show a screenshot of the software that handles the phone votes. You could make some serious cash with that installed and working.

Saturday 15 November 2008

Profit is Profit

Mixed stuff.

In Strictly, Christine came good in the line betting, netting a tasty profit. The BBC changed the supposed running order. This meant Tom became an instant 'no bet' for a bottom two slot. I did lose some cash on Jodie being in the bottom two but not a not.

Meanwhile over on ITV, Ruth avoided eviction, meaning more profit. Alexandra avoided being in the bottom two and I lost on that one.

Alexandra is causing me some trouble. All my models have her down as unpopular - I am concerned.

Never mind. Earning money watching TV is a great feeling.

Friday 14 November 2008

Operation 'Get John Out'

I theorised last Sunday that this week would be 'Operation Get John Out.' Looking at the apparent running order, I am right:

  • John & Kristina — American Smooth
  • Tom & Camilla — Salsa
  • Christine & Matthew — Waltz
  • Lisa & Brendan — Samba
  • Austin & Erin — Tango
  • Cherie & James — Cha-cha-cha
  • Jodie & Ian — Quickstep
  • Rachel & Vincent - Rumba
The interesting thing here is the thought that if this is a subtle and concerted effort to get John out, are the other weaker contestants phone-vote wise going last? Rachel being in the last two suggests it might be. If so, this order reveals a lot. If Christine isn't bottom two, we can deduce she is very popular. Jodie and Rachel to go would be the bets (pending running order) for the next week or two.

However, if John is very popular and gets loads of votes Tom could be the bet for botttom two. The Google Trends graph at the top backs this up - click on it for a better look. Remember, this is Bottom Two not To Go (the judges will keep Tom over virtually anyone). The running order may also change, so don't bet the house!

Please leave your thoughts. I am very interested to hear them.

Strictly Come Dancing Week 9

Christine Bleakley to score over 31.5 at Boylesports is my pick this week. The Waltz is traditionally a high scoring dance and she looked good on It Takes Two today. The rest of Boylesports line betting odds look well placed - their odds makers are catching up!

Thursday 13 November 2008

I'm A Celebrity Win Market Betting Odds

Found a good bet at William Hill. Any Other to win at 12's looks real value. Why?

Up to now they have tended to be funnymen who do well on the whole.

Christopher Biggins, Dean Gaffney, Vic Reeves and Cannon and Ball were late entries.

You will be able to trade out at a profit and it is probable you will get two entries for the price of one as well.

Web Traffic Update

Interesting shifts in the Youtube upload chart this week.

Blue represents the uploads per artist last week, red for this week. Firstly, the huge press coverage seems to have given the competition a big shot in the arm as all uploads are up massively.

The ones that stand out are Ruth and also to a lesser extent, Eoghan. Ruth has had a massive surge in upoads in the last week. I realise some will be due to the sing-off but any exposure is good exposure in my opinion. Bar the girlbands, the bottom two have flitted around a bit (probably due to running order) and I suspect it will continue this week.

Again, Alexandra is not a finalist going on Web Traffic alone.

How to bet then? Firstly, I will probably lay Ruth to go this week on Betfair (assuming she will get a later slot). I will have a bet on Ruth to win it at 28's also on Betfair - the Google Trends graph above also shows massively increased interest. I will also reduce liability on JLS netting a tasty 25% profit but keeping some powder dry.

Finally, Alexandra for bottom two is going to come in this week.

Is the X Factor a number? -3

Running Order a.k.a. The Producers Trapdoor. The weapon used to discard people and give people a heads-up. This is a big one. 76% of week 1-5 evictions are in the first two.

How to do this? I think:

1st - 1 point

2nd - 1 point

Middle - 5 points

Last - 10 points

The rest inbetween

This bit will need altering, but it is a start.

Wednesday 12 November 2008

I'm A Celebrity, Get Me Out Of Here!

List just out:

Brian Paddick
Carly Zucker
Dani Behr
Esther Rantzen
George Takei
Joe Swash
Martina Navratilova
Nicola Maclean
Robert Kilroy-Silk
Simon Webbe

I will spend some time researching this mob.

Early thoughts. Simon Webbe, Joe Swash will be the obvious early favourites. I like Martina and possibly Carly Zucker - but that is gut feeling and we don't like that on this site.

Tuesday 11 November 2008

Is the X Factor a number? - 2

This is going to be tricky for a number of reasons, the main being how to quantify subjective opinions?

Certain topics are going to produce baseline numbers to add and subtract and others are going to be multipliers. I would also love to include a square root and a pi sign as it will look much better!

I will also try to put the finished equation into an online form so you can enter your own values and work out the contestant X Factor in your opinion.

The number I am trying to get will produce a weekly result, not finding out who will win the series - helping eviction betting (the best and most profitable). The higher the number, the higher the predicted phone votes.

Judge Input (JI) - This very important as it sways people at home how to vote. Viewers are easily persuaded that what they heard was 'world class.' The number will be between 1 and 10.

Exceptional - 10
Very Positive - 8
Positive - 6
Neutral - 4
Poor - 3
Very Poor - 5
Savaged - 7
(Judges Argue - Add 1 to your overall impression of JI)

Note the bimodal distribution of points awarded. We all know a beasting attracts the votes.

Internet Traffic (IT) - Youtube or Google? I don't know. I like Google Trends as a lot of people search Youtube on Google as well. You may disagree. They are both good. The top result will have a number of one, the others less than one as a proportion of the top figure.

IT =Most recent Google Trend Number x 20

Two down, many more to go.

SCD - Scores chart update

Interesting stuff. John goes from bad to worse! Tom is very consistent across the board.

Google Trends Search Traffic

Definite pattern emerging now. JLS's web traffic is the only one approaching Diana at the moment. I suspect Diana's laryngitis has inceased her search traffic as well. Ruth is not on this graph but she is very similar to Eoghan on the graph.

Alexandra remains on my 'at risk' register. She will need to nail it every time to stay in.

Is the X Factor a number?

I have been wondering for while about the possibility of a mathmatical formula to predict outcomes of reality shows. This would be very useful and take all the emotion and subjective thought out of betting and leave me with an objective result. I have decided to try and make one with your help.

Firstly, we need variables and figures to put in the equation. I will need your help with this one.

XF = X Factor - The number produced by the formula which shows a contestants weekly rating.

JI = Judge Input - A numerical figure derived from the judges comments. This is going to be very tricky to do.

IT = Internet Traffic - A term used to encompass all internet research.

RO = Running Order - Should be self-explanatory

PPV = Previous Phone Votes - God, I would love these figures! But we will have to do without.

RV = Regional Vote - Some contestants benefit from a regional bias.

SA = Sex Appeal - Probably has a little value

Have I missed any out? Please leave feedback. I will start creating the formula tonight.


C = Culture - I am going to avoid race, but some cultures will be less popular than others.

E = Edit - Can't believe I forgot this.

EE = Expressed Emotion - Tears!

P = Performance - Not as important as you would think!

This is going to take some time to produce!

Sunday 9 November 2008

Interesting results

That's why I love TV betting, the unpredictability. Laura was a big shock to go at the time, although on reflection her performance was very poor. A lot of the contestants were very weak, especially Rachel who was probably saved by her mauling from the judges. Daniel, JLS and Eoghan were the only ones who were any good in my opinion.

Strictly Come Dancing was less surprising. Heather finally got put out of her misery losing to Rachel in a dance-off - confirming my view that Rachel isn't very popular. I suspect next week will be Operation Get John Out, we shall see.

Not too bad a weekend for myself. X Factor was poor, neither Rachel or Alexandra made the bottom two netting two losers there. However, JLS looked good and confirmed my belief they will make the final. I suspect Eoghan's internet traffic may rise in the next few weeks - we will spot it here first.

However, the two big bets of the weekend were better. Heather to get over 26.5 scraped in (Boylesports moved the line to over 27.5 later on friday - do they read TellyBetting?) with a 27, but hey, they all count.

Rachel Stevens to be bottom two was also a big winner. I had some 8/1 earlier in the week (see below) and some 20/1 last night as a top-up.

Finally, Jodie Kidd. She was terrible last night. I don't know what happened. The fact she was not in the final two having danced second and scored so lowly suggests she may be quite popular after all. Maybe, it will be a good bet after all - although I will probably trade out of it on Betfair in a week or so.

Hope you did well. I am aware I have not been analysing past results enough in order to predict the markets better, I will get onto it this week.

Friday 7 November 2008

JLS: The value bet

I am now convinced that the quartet offer the current value and that they will be at least Top 3.

Youtube is excellent for analysing popularity and below are the results from searches looking at the number of videos uploaded. Blue is in the last month and red is in the last week. The ratio of red over blue is virtually identical for all the contestants - 0.40 to 0.42 - which shows by my reckoning little momentum change for anyone.

As you can see they are second only to Diana Vickers at the moment with a significant gap to third place. They are also building up steam on the Google Trends charts and are actually catching Diana in that respect.

There is a massive gap for a boyband in the UK at the moment and other than Diana, they offer the possibility of making long term money for Mr Cowell. I know a band have never won X Factor but they have come close. They have also tightened up their performances in the last 2 weeks and are now playing to their strengths. I have moved position from Eoghan (netting a small profit) to these guys. In case you are wondering, I am also on Diana at 8/1, Rachel 19/1(Doh!) and have a little on Daniel as insurance against Same Differenceitis.

It is also interesting to see who is not popular. Daniel cannot be properly analysed by these methods in my opinion as his voting cohort are older and are not on Youtube (beware he was also backed by Chris Moyles). He worries me from a betting view.

It has also empathised my belief that Alexandra is not popular. The fact that it is Mariah Carey week makes things more tricky as it should aid Alexandra and Rachel.

My advice. Wait until the running order is known before betting tonight. I still think Alexandra and Rachel for bottom two could be good value if they are up early but I am betting small this week as it is hard to read.

EDIT: Diana is apparently not singing tonight due to Laryngitis.

Week 8: Strictly Come Dancing Running Order



This may change but it is supposed to be correct. If this is correct I am less happy going for Rachel to be bottom two, but it's too late now. John may be in trouble unless he is very funny. If the judges go easy on him or say he is improving back him to go. Neutrality means less votes and the producers and judges know this.

The Boylesports line betting has another cracking bet this week. Heather Small looked great on ITT the other day doing the Tango and over 26.5 is a great bet. Pile in, this is another blinder.

Jodie looked fantastic on It Takes Two. In a poor year for characters, I am beginning to think she could even win this and have backed accordingly with a small amount. She is improving rapidly and looks more like a Zoe Ball each week.

Thursday 6 November 2008

Alexandra: Is she popular?

The graph above is an aggregation of snapshots of Yahoo poll results. Again Diana is very popular but the real surprise is Alexandra. This result goes against the Google Trends results and also against Youtube views.

Daniel is another who is a lot more popular. If this graph is correct, the odds are very wrong. I am not convinced though. We shall see!

Wednesday 5 November 2008

X Factor Google Trends

Here is this weeks Google Trends analysis. I think a pattern is beginning to emerge. I think Diana is a very worthy favourite and is still value at 2.62 on Betfair. Laura and JLS would be my calls to make the rest of final three.

This weekend could interesting. Daniel could be going this week as I think he will be bottom two. I think he will be up against either Rachel or Alexandra but this depends massively on running order.

Monday 3 November 2008

X Factor: A new graph

Above is a graph I have high hopes for. It will show the numbers of videos posted on Youtube of each contestant. It will take a few days to get going but I am hoping this will spot early trends.

I had tracked individual videos before but they kept getting pulled ruining the graph. This should be more stable.

This link to the most popular Youtube videos shows that Diana is still very popular.

EDIT: It appears that this graph may be s***!

EDIT: Or not. JLS appears to be a make of gun, thus skewing the results. If you take them out you get some data. It is too early to apply it properly. We will let it run a week or so more and see.

Strictly Come Dancing Voting Trends

The graph above is an update of the Yahoo poll. Again the gradient is the key to seeing popularity. I think that as less people use the poll, it is less valid. I will publish it this week for possibly the last time. You may see something I don't. Rachel Stevens does not appear popular though. Bottom two could well be the bet for her. I am not convinced there will be much value in backing Heather this week. I think I will watch Rachel's practice dance before committing though.

Below is the updated scores graph. It cements Austin and Tom's superiority and Jodie's and Lisa's improvement. It also shows Rachel's lack of improvement.

Finally, Tom appears to be the early bet for top score this week.

Sunday 2 November 2008

That winning feeeling!

Well done Lewis. What a race. And an enjoyable weekend all round.

It has been good weekend for TellyBetting as well:

1) Austin Healey nailed the over 33.5 - easiest bet of the year, thank you Boylesports.

2) Andrew was evicted. Sorry, I didn't post this as I was betting in-running, but it was fairly obvious at the time.

3) Rachel in the bottom two in X Factor - The search stats threw a nice one out there.

A couple of small losers in Alexandra bottom two and Rachel to be evicted, but that's life and the three winners were much bigger bets. I am also trying analyse how I missed Austin's eviction. I think it was a simple running order thing and another example of why you should bet during the show as you can read the 'plot' unfurling. Daniel not being in the bottom two followed a similar pattern to Ruth. I am kicking myself for not laying him on Betfair as I talked about it being a potential pattern a few days ago.

I think both SCD and X Factor will get more difficult to read from here on in. A 'shock' is due next week, possibly Rachel Stevens bottom two in SCD.

PS I have put this blog on as well. Hopefully, I will see you there.

PPS If you have any suggestions to improve analysis or new things to analyse, please leave a note.

Saturday 1 November 2008

John Sergeant: Another Christopher Parker?

At what point do we have to think of John as a potential winner? Remember Christopher Parker, who was also a truly terrible dancer? He made the final.

The chart below is a graph showing the number of votes on the Yahoo poll. I have been lazy so all the graphs don't start at zero. The thing to look at is the gradient of the graph, not the absolute numbers. John's line is rising, and fast. Bar Cherie, whose momentum is waning a little, everyone else is static.

It is not a strong year with nobody being a truly great personality and a great dancer (Austin is nearest). Alesha last year was truly fantastic and still hangs over this years mob somewhat. Could a popular John ride roughshod through the show?

There are a few counterarguments. Insiders would have surely charged in on John's price already, it is an unreliable internet poll, his votes will fall away (a la Kate Garraway). We shall see.

He can be had at 100's at Coral at the moment. If you don't believe me (and I am not convinced myself) at least consider covering yourself.