Friday 31 October 2008

Strictly Come Dancing: Week 7

Here is a list of the dances:

Austin & Erin - Quickstep
Heather & Brian - Cha Cha
Jodie & Ian - Waltz
Andrew and Ola - Samba
Lisa & Brendan - Tango
Cherie & James - Salsa
John & Kristina - Foxtrot
Tom and Camilla - Paso Doble
Christine & Matthew - American Smooth
Rachel & Vincent - Jive

In my opinion, dances to watch are Austin and Rachel. Boylesports 33.5 line on Austin looks a cracking bet at overs. He also looks good for top score, my only proviso would be a Rachel cover bet.

Below is the beginnings of my chart showing all the SCD average dance scores. It is a lot of work, so may take a while to finish. It should give some pointers, especially in the line betting.

Thursday 30 October 2008

X Factor Graph Follow-Up

Another quick post to illustrate Diana's potential loss of momentum.

Wednesday 29 October 2008

A shot in the dark

I have been wondering recently about the possibility of getting the actual voting figures from SCD. The recent problems with TV competitions should mean greater openness. To this end I have written to the BBC. We will see if I get a response. I am not holding my breath:

Dear Sir/Madam,

I am writing to inquire about the non-publishing of the actual voting numbers for the BBC's TV show Strictly Come Dancing. As someone whose family reguarly vote in this show it occurred to me that the actual results are never published. In light of recent well publicised scandals involving phone-in competetions this is obviously an area of potential concern. As you know the BBC's Code of Conduct for Competitions and Voting states that:

The BBC undertakes that competitions and votes are conducted in a way that is honest, open, fair and legal

In particular, I draw your attention to the open part of the sentence as keeping the results private certainly contravenes that.

In view of this, would it be possible to publish the results publicly every week or send me a copy of the phone-in results up to now.

Thank you

Wish me luck. I will post any replies here.

Monday 27 October 2008

Is Diana's stardust losing it's lustre?

Looking at the graphs above which look at the number of times people search on Google for each X Factor contestant a few things stand out.

Firstly, Diana's search numbers have fallen from the previous week. This could be explained by a perceived poorer performance (which it was), but another reason could be the public losing interest in the songstress. I have picked up on an early negative vibe starting about her (e.g. the weird hand movements) and I think she may drop a little further in the odds as this gathers momentum - expect to see 'I hate Diana' Facebook groups very soon.

JLS seem increasingly popular as well and I am considering betting on them as I think they will drop in price soon.

Does being in the bottom two raise your profile to avoid being there the next week? Ruth's numbers held this week and I am very interested to see how Daniel does next week.

There are two names that people are not interested in and they may be up next. We will see, but I have a sneaky feeling Alexandra and/or Rachel could be bottom two this week.

Sunday 26 October 2008

Mixed results

A funny weekend.

Strictly Come Dancing continues to be the easier show to read, although Craig's harsh scoring nearly cost me large when Rachel scraped past 31.5. The laying of Lisa and Christine was also easy money. Andrew scraping by was annoying especially as the 6-1 for him to go was looking a good bet.

X Factor was also annoying despite predicting Rachel's odds drop. I hope you got in and out as recommended. Daniel probably deserved to stay but I am uncomfortable about his morals in so flagrantly using his wife's passing to stay in (although I predicted it may happen - using Unchained Melody though)

Still, profit is profit.

Saturday 25 October 2008

Past SCD average score infomation

The following are the average scores over the years for the Paso Doble and the Viennese Waltz:

Paso Doble 27.48 (33 dances, top score 37, bottom score 15)
Viennese Waltz 31.4 (20 dances, top score 38, bottom score 23)

There is a marked difference and this is interesting for our strategy this week. Backing Viennese Waltz dancers for top score would appear to be an area to work on.

Regarding individual contestants scores, Rachel Stevens at 8/11 to score over 31.5 at Boylesports is a fantastic bet given the training footage and the above statistic. This really is a cracker. Laying Christine and Lisa as weekly top score on Betfair should be easy money as well, although the odds are poor at the moment and not yet worth looking at.

Good luck.

PS Rachel Hylton as a back (18-1) to later lay on Betfair should be a profitable move. Big Band week and she is singing Feeling Good. With her style of voice, she should nail it.

Wednesday 22 October 2008

Strictly Come Dancing: Andrew Castle to go this week

Today's chart is a chart of the contestants scores in SCD up to now. It admittedly, is not statistically valid but hopefully in few weeks some trends will become apparent regarding who is improving and who isn't. I will add the scores to it weekly and publish it for your delectation.

I think Andrew will go this week, losing to Heather in a dance-off. As you can see, he and Heather are the least popular dancers and I consider him to be the worse of the two. He is also doing the Viennese Waltz which is dull and not a vote winner compared to the Paso Doble the other lesser male dancers are doing. The lovely Ola does not engender much female support, either. Finally, as the graph above shows, he is not improving and is just going backwards.

The list of dances is below:

Paso doble:
Jodie & Ian
Lisa & Brendan
Cherie & James
Christine & Matthew
John & Kristina
Mark & Hayley

Viennese waltz:
Andrew & Ola
Austin & Erin
Rachel & Vincent
Heather & Brian
Tom & Camilla

Remember. Keeeeeeeeeeep betting!

X Factor: Google Insights

Scott Bruton scored 7 in another graph. Every search needs a static factor (Diana) as it is proportional to the first entry (Google don't give actual search numbers). Diana's interest is continuing to rise.

I think Daniel may go this week especially if up early. The sympathy ride is over. I will also keep an eye out on the odds for Alexandra to be bottom two. There may be some remarkably good value if Scott does well.

Monday 20 October 2008

X Factor: Google Insight/Trends graphic update

Here are todays Google analytic graphs. The top one is the more complex Google Insight results. The second is the basic Google Trends. The results are obvious regarding Diana. However, Alexandra should be worried. She just isn't connecting with masses despite being given songs that play to her strengths.

Yet more graphs and statistics!

The dances in week 6 are either the Viennese Waltz or the Paso Doble. I am researching the scoring at the moment. Neither appear to score highly although it appears Brendan is good at teaching the Viennese Waltz.

Sunday 19 October 2008

Weekend review

Well, last night turned out to be a good night for me. Both my eviction predictions were correct and I even nailed the bottom two in Strictly Come Dancing and X Factor.

I personally find that the outright markets are more difficult to predict and less profitable but easier to get out of a bad position and have a lot more liquidity.

This research orientated way to win money will continue next week.

Saturday 18 October 2008

Tonights picks

Quick post as I am going out now. The predictions are based on me not knowing the order they are singing/dancing.

X Factor - Girlband or Ruth will go
Strictly Come Dancing - Heather or Don will go

Good luck.

Friday 17 October 2008

X Factor Google Hits

This graph is looking at results from Google searches for X Factor contestants. It appears to be useless!

Back to the drawing board. The Youtube graphs below were showing some very good stuff before the videos got pulled by Youtube. I will post another graph soon. It certainly appears Diana is popular.

Strictly Come Dancing: Week 5

Strictly finally gets going this week. Polls like above start to give a more accurate idea of who is popular and who isn't, as they get more statistical power due to better numbers. My tips for this week are:
1) Heather or Don to go - see above. Or back both in a 'bottom two' market.
2) Back Tom - he isn't that popular yet, but this weekend he is getting married. This will get mentioned a lot. He will back this up with a top notch dance. The Fred and Ginger style of the American Smooth is his inspiration. An easy trade opportunity.
3) Back Rachel - in practice she looked to have an absolutely stunning routine. Another easy trade opportunity.

I think the 10 board will come out as well. Good luck.

Thursday 16 October 2008

Google Trends/Trendrr X Factor Update

An interesting graph is being produced here. Please click on the image for a better view. If the Diana spikes become a regular pattern I will bet on her. Below is the Trendrr live feed graph which supports Diana very strongly. I will add the other acts on the feed tommorrow.

Tuesday 14 October 2008

Trendrr: A new research tool?

As you know, I am a big fan of actively researching my TV bets in order to remove guessing as much as possible. Hunches are good, facts are better!

Trendrr is a new company that allows you to make detailed analysis of a number of websites, including Youtube. It allows you plot and analyse graphs looking at total views, number of comments, views per day, times favourited. I am hoping it will let me build up a picture of viewng trends which will spot shifts early.

I will post some results when Trendrr captures them and we can take a look and see if it is useful.

Monday 13 October 2008

X Factor betting aids

An important tool in X Factor betting is looking at the official X Factor website 1 hour before the show starts. This will tell you who is singing what song and allow you to hazard a guess at how the contestants will do.

Unless you are directly involved with the show or know someone who is, you won't get better information for betting on.

Strictly Come Dancing has the informative It Takes Two which gives a decent preview of the upcoming dances along with a judges opinion on it. This is in my opinion, essential if you want to make big, consistent money on Specials betting.

We will explore more complex ways to get ahead in the coming months.

Sunday 12 October 2008

X Factor musings

Bad Lashes - I thought they were very poor. Rightly shipped out.

Scott Bruton - He was stitched up by the song choice. He looks like he can perform on stage but his voice is poor. Not a winner in my book.

Alexandra Burke - Good voice but I wouldn't back her at the moment. Set up for her last night, she couldn't go wrong.

Austin Drage - A poor start from one of the supposed favourites. I have a feeling he will stay for a while. Now is the time to bet on him

Daniel Evans - Cheesy and can't sing, but lovable. I have a feeling that this guy is a lot more popular than he deserves to be. Rumour is that his back up song is Unchained Melody which would make him very strong in a sing-off. Back to lay - but not much.

Girlband - Going soon.

Rachel Hylton - An interesting one. She was fed a terrible song which was designed not show her talents. They either want rid of her or are setting her up for a story. I have her onside at the moment but am not risking a lot.

JLS - Slick. Look like like top 4 act. Next weeks Michael Jackson theme will play into their hands. I still can't see their price moving too much for a while. The only thing that worries me is their group status.

Ruth Lorenzo - She has a good voice but a complete absence of support.

Eoghan Quigg - He did well. I think he could go all the way. The make-up guys sorted him out and he has the teen vote and the Irish vote to come. Back him at 10's - you will be able to trade it.

Diana Vickers - Great performance and a early shout as potential winner. I think she may struggle if asked to tackle other types of music. I would want to see her again before putting my hard-earned down.

Laura White - Very solid performance but it was set up for her on a plate. Good song choice and last on. She is now underpriced on the exchanges. She will have to brilliant every week just to keep that price and that will not happen. Lay.

Friday 10 October 2008

The Elephant in the room

Week 4 of Strictly is upon us and the standard is higher than ever. Eviction wise there are 2 main favourites. Jodie and Jessie are rightly favoured but I feel Jodie will do enough this week. Jessie was up first last time so shouldn't be this time but I still reckon that as the worst dancer left, she will go. She is just the wrong shape and as leaden-footed as they come. Plus rumours from the show suggest she isn't liked much. The Elephant will go.

Expect strong performances from Rachel and Cherie which may lower their overall odds. Cherie in particular looked very good on It Takes Two, using her acting skills(sic) to nail a hard dance.

I have included a screenshot of what I think is a very valuable tool in specials betting - Google Trends. Everyone knows about using Youtube and internet polls but this is another useful arrow in the quiver. It picked out George Sampson in Britain's got Talent as winner so I like it a lot. Keep an eye out once the sexes merge in the show in a few weeks. The thing that stands out is that apart from the general noise of frisky teenagers searching for her, Christine Bleakley hasn't stood out yet - is she underpriced? We shall see.

The X Factor finally gets going

Well, here we are. The final twelve. You know who they are and you have your own ideas. Lets look at the rules of X-Factor betting:

1) If a man and woman are of equal standard, the man will win.
2) It is a popularity contest not a singing contest.
3) It is harder for a group to win.
4) Look at the general press reports.
5) Remember it is shown in Ireland.
6) Running order matters.
7) Watch sister shows if possible.
8) Rules are made to be broken.

I have held off bettng properly until I see them perform live. It should be good and hopefully profitable.