Sunday 22 February 2009

Jessica's RTSI Tonight

Here is tonight's RTSI for Jessica. She was getting very little traffic tonight.

Ray wasn't getting a lot either.

Dancing On Ice: Week 7 Thoughts

After Ray's spectacular 30 last week, the bookis have typically overreacted with this weeks odds. Blue Square deserve to get filled in for their 5/6 under 29.5 points. Get on quick - it won't last long.

Why Didn't I Follow This One Through?

A long time ago, before this blog was born, I speculated on Betfair that Heath Ledger could be a good bet for an Oscar. This was before the film was released in the US.

I never followed it through as I wanted at least 30-1 at the time. I always knew it was a storming bet but wanted to nick a monster win.


Saturday 21 February 2009

The Sole Reason For The Drift On Ray

A good old fashioned 'ramp.'

It's amazing what a comment on a forum can do to the market.

I hope none of you fell for this!

Friday 20 February 2009

Real-Time Sentiment Index (RTSI): Alexis v Danny

The graph on the left shows the RTSI for Alexis Grace over the last few days. The one below shows the one for Danny Gokey.

It essentially shows a set amount of internet noise for each contestant. If one gets more interest the timescale on the X-axis will be reduced.

Firstly, I am new to analysing these plots so your guess is as good as mine.

However, I reckon Danny made a much bigger impression during the show. Alexis caused a bit of a surprise in the results show but Danny has had more enduring popularity since the results show.

These graphs are difficult to analyse (due to the variable x-axis) so any help is appreciated.

Thursday 19 February 2009

Supertool Finally Unveiled!

I have decided to share with you one of my newish tools I use in Specials betting.

It is Facebook's Lexicon and it is essentially a way of searching and plotting people comments or updates on Facebook.

People often update in real time their thoughts on a TV show on Facebook. They will mention a particular contestants name. Facebook Lexicon counts occurrences of words and phrases that appear on Walls over time. Much like Tellybetting's old favourite Google Trends, these can be searched and plotted.

I was very excited when I first discovered it and was convinced I had the holy grail that nobody else had. It is good but the lag time (24-48 hours) is the real problem with it. These markets move a lot in 2 days and so the opportunity to use Lexicon effectively is rare. It is a pity as it is a sensitive tool when deployed correctly.

Have a look yourself. It is straightforward to use.

Why am I giving away tips to winning? Because there are other tools out there which may be better. The next great white hope is my Real-Time Sentiment Index (RTSI). I will let you know about it sometime.

Wednesday 18 February 2009

American Idol 2009: Trendrr Graph

Below is a plot I have set up on Trendrr. It measures the number of posts on Twitter about each contestant on American Idol. When the show hits the final group I suspect the traffic will go ballistic and offer some quality infomation. I will repost this graph regularly.

I would like to thank the staff at Trendrr for allowing me extra graphs in order to plot all 36 contestants together. It is a great site for TV betting research and I recommend it heartily.

EDIT: I know Arianna Afsar isn't on it. I am collecting her data though and will add her soon.

How reliable are Youtube views?

I thought I would repost this for the benefit of people who joined the blog recently.

Recently, I have been wondering about the validity of Youtube as a pointer to a persons popularity while betting on TV shows. Although it is good,I have suspected it was easily manipulated - much like a lot of internet polls. However, I don't believe people are doing it yet, although that may change on reading this!

This is the tool to do it. It is relatively slow, but left on overnight it could play havoc with view numbers on certain videos.

Is it wrong to mislead people in order to win cash?

I am seriously thinking of having a go with this in the next year. Don't say you weren't warned!

Tuesday 17 February 2009

The Fourth Commandment: Don't Always Back Who You Like

Sorry, been a long delay in the Commandments due to my bone idleness.

This may or may not apply to you all.
Personally, the people I like don't win TV shows. I take this as a compliment because they are usually pillocks.

Don't let personal opinions of contestants rule your head too much. You probably do not represent the average voting demographic so your opinion while not worthless isn't of much value.

Monday 16 February 2009

American Idol: Google Trends

Just started looking at some American Idol stats. Here are the Top 5 in the betting at the moment on Google Trends.

Nothing too exciting but good to get an early idea.

An Old Friend Revisited

Remember this graph? I found it again today. It goes to show that some of my methods just don't work. You live and learn! It is interesting though I'm sure you'll agree.

Talking of new methods, I will activate my Supertool in a few days. It should be great for American Idol betting

Sunday 15 February 2009

American Idol Top List

  1. Anoop Desai
  2. Von Smith
  3. Alex Wagner
  4. Adam Lambert
  5. Taylor Vaifanua
  6. Jasmine Murray
  7. Arianna Afsar
  8. Casey Carlson
  9. Megan Corkrey
  10. Mishavonna Henson
  11. Stevie Wright
  12. Felicia Barton
  13. Kendall Beard
  14. Kristin McNamara
  15. Alexis Grace
  16. Scott MacIntire
  17. Jackie Tohn
  18. Lil Rounds
  19. Jessie Langseth
  20. Allison Iraheta
  21. Danny Gokey
  22. Ricky Braddy
  23. Matt Giraud
  24. Ju’not Joyner
  25. Jorge Nunez
  26. Brent Keith
  27. Stephen Fowler
  28. Nick Mitchell
  29. Tatiana Del Toro
  30. Nathaniel Marshall
  31. Jeanine Vailes
  32. Kai Kalama
  33. Anne Marie Boskovich
  34. Kris Allen
  35. Matt Breitzke
  36. Michael Sarver
I still haven't watched any of the show. I will try to trim the list a little myself in the next few days in order to get some good early odds.

Dancing On Ice: Google Trends

This weeks Google Trends search review is on the left.

Ray seems to be popular and well ahead.

Do you back him at 1.4? That is the question.

Dancing On Ice: Thoughts

Surely, Ellery must be going tonight. If he is in the bottom two, he goes. However, this has been a poor series for me regarding evictions so far so don't follow me in too large.

Following last weeks line betting arbs, the bookies have tightened up the lines. There is a small one to be had with Ray and the weeks Top Score but little else of note. A pity.

Good luck.

Tuesday 10 February 2009

An Interesting Betting Tactic

The following was posted by Keano2 on the Betfair forum. He won his bet. What a great tactic, there are some smart cookies out there. Saying that, I can't believe he posted his golden ticket:

Lowest Judges score in week 5:
Under 9.25 with Sid James at 5/6 Todd to score above 7.9 points at 5/6 with the Goat. If he scores 7 or under, or 10 or over then 500*5/6 - 500 = (83.33) If he scores 8 or 9 it's a double collect at 416.67 + 416.67. So for a max liability of 83.33 scoring 8 or 9 is effectively 10/1 on what is a 2/1 shot.

Good eh? Perhaps I shouldn't post it?

Sunday 8 February 2009

Dancing On Ice: 5th Elimination Market

One bet stand out for me at the moment. Roxanne represents fantastic value at 15's. I think she should be 7-8's, maybe lower. She is a crap skater.

I actually think Ellery will be the one that goes, so have had a saver on him.

I also promise that this will be the last picture of Roxanne I post!

American Idol: A New Approach To Betting

This could be interesting. One thing that I suspect can get in the way of Specials betting is internal bias. You can't help but like or dislike people and this can affect your neutrality and judgement.

I also find myself having little spare time at the moment in order to watch the show.

So I thought we could run an interesting experiment. I will bet on American Idol - especially the winners market - but not watch a minute of the show. The eviction market relies on factors that occur during the show so I will probably ignore it. I will try to avoid even looking at pictures of the contestants.

This means I will be betting solely on the polling numbers alone without any of my own thoughts ruining it! It may go horribly wrong but nothing ventured. nothing gained.

Anyone else going to join me?

Dancing On Ice: Google Trends

Lets take a close look at DOI. It has been a bit dull with the exception of Todd Carty but it is a good betting medium.

Google Trends has thrown up an interesting picture. Todd's spike is not a surprise. Jessica is a touch more popular than I thought. Ray is not exciting the populace that much. Colleen is not doing well but remember that she appeals to a demographic who are not online as much.

We shall see how the graph changes in the next few weeks.

Sunday 1 February 2009

Dancing On Ice: What to do?

I have got rid of my Roxanne liabilities a couple of weeks ago. She is quite dislikeable. I am nicely green on everyone but especially Colleen and Ray.

Tonights show has me thinking that Donal could be a good outsider. He has showed marked improvement and tries very hard. He also has a good regional vote behind him - more so if Zoe goes. If he stays tonight, I may risk a few quid on him for a truly monster win. I thought you would prefer a picture of Roxy to Donal though!