Sports Personality Of The Year 2009

Early I know, but this is the time to do the research and get in with initial thoughts. In a year without a World Cup, Euro's and especially the Olympics to provide heroes, the market is a lot smaller. The past winners in these years are more drawn from ball sports. Let us form a shortlist now of this years main contenders:

Andy Murray - Has to win a Grand Slam to win it. Better odds backing that instead.

Lewis Hamilton - Not good value.

A. Cricketer - Possible, can't tell which one yet. Cook could be a lively outsider if he scores like Gooch did in 1990.

Ricky Hatton - Must beat Pacquiao to have a chance, which is unlikely.

David Haye - Is my current pick. He is class and good with the media.

Kelly Sotherton - The most likely athlete to win it.

Ian Poulter/Paul Casey/Justin Rose - see Andy Murray.

Laura Robson - Will win it within five years (This is something I would bet big on). She is the one possible real outsider for me at the moment for this year. She is increasingly looking like the real deal and the real deal in Women's Tennis can start causing damage at age 15 - Hingis, Austin, Kournilova etc. I can imagine her getting into Wimbledon via a wildcard and winning a few matches. The Daily Mail etc will champion her. Watch this space. Currently 100's but she will drift on Betfair - when she finally gets on the market!

No odds worth taking yet on anyone. Bide your time.

Sports Personality Of The Year 2008 Review

Here are the votes, it was a bloody landslide:

Chris Hoy 283,630 votes
Lewis Hamilton 163,864
Rebecca Adlington 145,924
Ben Ainslie 35,472
Joe Calzaghe 34,077
Andy Murray 19,415
Nicole Cooke 18,256
Christine Ohuruogu 7,677
Bradley Wiggins 5,633
Rebecca Romero 4,526

As I said here, wait until the night itself. It was good advice. Adlington came across as rather dull. She also looked terrible which also isn't a great vote winner. Hoy was the consumate gentleman whilst Hamilton is just too much of a robot to enamour the public into picking up the phone.

The regional vote also played a part in my opinion. I am kicking myself for not acting on this obvious factor. Well done to Chris Hoy though.

Personally, I didn't bet in the end on the main event - just didn't fancy it in the end. The Overseas Personality was annoying (poor research on my part in not checking who votes) but Young Personality was a nice win.

One thing to remember for next year is that the main contenders odds dived when they were on the show, they then returned to pre-interview levels quickly. A cracking future trading opportunity if ever there was one.

Overseas Sports Personality of the Year

The Overseas Award is between two who are impossible to separate.

Michael Phelps is the greatest Olympian ever (some say sportsman) who simply must win. Lovely bloke, who spent a lot of time with the BBC.

Usain Bolt put in possibly the greatest sports performances ever seen, obliterating 'Blue Riband' records. He is a massive personality as well. He was the defining memory of Beijing. A true 'fenom.' He simply must win.

There have been four joint awards in 46 years and this year will be another. The two are simply inseparable (If you do bet, check the rules regarding dead heats with your bookie before you bet). As they are inseparable, back Phelps. It is likely Bolt would win it again if he doesn't win this year - running 9.48 in London 2012 for example. Phelps can't lose it and the award maintain 100% credibility, while Bolt could.

But it will likely be a joint award.

EDIT: My mistake here was not researching who decided this award. It was a panel of reporters who were always more likely to side with the bigger attraction. It used to be BBC staff only. You live and learn!

Sports Personality Of The Year: Petrolheads versus Middle England

SPOTY is a departure from my usual reality TV shows, but I reckon it still falls under my TellyBetting remit.

First up is the main event itself. Let us look at some figures in relation to the three main contenders and only realistic winners - Lewis Hamilton, Chris Hoy and Rebecca Adlington.

Formula 1 has provided six winners in all. Swimming two and Cycling one. The interesting area is looking at winners in Olympic years. In Olympic years sice 1960, eight of twelve winners have been Olympians (Two of those twelve have been F1 drivers) - they don't always win in Olympic years.

Chris Hoy is the most successful UK Olympian since 1908. I can't have him as a winner though. Cycling is too minority a sport and he isn't very captivating to listen to.

Adlington comes across brilliantly on TV and will surely grab the housewives/Daily Mail vote by the sackload. Expect some puns involving shoes and a lot of screentime.

Hamilton is a strong favourite,involved in possibly the most exciting sporting moment of the year. The BBC have F1 next year so will push him more than they might have done in the past. He has a legion of petrolhead fans as well.

Don't spend a penny on this market until the night, when you can watch the edit and timings etc. Keep your eyes peeled in the press as well for campaigns, polls etc. For what it's worth, Adlington is my pick at the moment, but my powder is being kept dry.