Sunday 31 May 2015

Britain's Got Talent Final

I've been tuning in to the Britain's Got Talent semi final's all week and while not the most inspiring final ever, there's a good mix of acts at least. Over recent years the popularity of countless Diversity imitators seems to have abated a bit, which probably isn't a bad thing.

Welsh choir Cor Glanaethwy are current favourites at 5/4, singer Calum Scott is 2-1, dog act Jules and Matisse 5-1, Isaac Waddington 11-1, magician Jamie Raven 33-1, family singing act The Neales 40-1. Others are at bigger odds. It's a hard one to call bet wise. I had more confidence that the momentum behind Sweden's Eurovision entry would bag the win, than Cor Glanaethwy here at similar odds due to the momentum it had gathered over a period of time. Running order is everything is these competitions though and you can be sure that both Cor Glanaethwy and Calum Scott will get prime tail end slots.

There's possibly some value in the each way market, with plenty of acts in with a decent shot of clinching a top 3 position at 1/5 of the odds but again with some acts 'nailed on' for good slots, it's not an easy feat to even make top 3. It looks like two wild card acts are set to make the final too. That complicates matters slightly, though being that they failed to win their semi finals that somewhat reduces their threat.

Since there's not a huge amount of value in Cor Glanaethwy, I'm going to go with a win bet on dog act Jules and Matisse at 5-1 on the basis that we're a nation of animal lovers, a comparable act has won in the past, and as there are a number of singing acts, it might water down their vote somewhat. Maybe I'm barking mad, we'll find out tonight.

Wednesday 27 May 2015

Eurovision Televote vs Jury Results

I was glad to see the Swedish Eurovision Entry manage to secure the victory at the weekend. For a long time it had started to look like the Russian entry might edge ahead.  At the half way point though that all changed.

Following the competition the Televote and Jury results were released. For the life of me I don't know why they still use a Jury when a pure telephone vote would be the fairest way of working it. That said, the outcome really would've been quite different with Italy romping home to a convincing win and Russia just pipping Sweden to second place.

Of course the dire performance of the UK entry is consistent across both types of voting, confirming that it was the musical turd that many had considered it to be.

Wednesday 20 May 2015

Eurovision Update (Updated with Bet Suggestions)

Well, it's certainly come around fast hasn't it? The song contest us Brits take about as seriously as a Carry On Film is once again almost upon us. Graham Norton will no doubt be knocking a few drinks back and laughing along with it, as will I! I already gave a pretty thorough overview of my Eurovision bet selections back in April and not much has changed odds wise.Sweden's Entry and still favourite Måns Zelmerlöw - Heroes has gone out slightly since that time from 6/4 to 2-1 and my proposed place selection Norway's Mørland & Debrah Scarlett - A Monster Like Me is over 65-1 for the win with betfair. The entry is certainly more than up against it to win, but I am hoping for decent odds for a Top 4 or 5 finish. It  has to get through the second semi final on Thursday first though, so the performance there could slightly alter its place and win odds. The results are revealed in random order though, so not a great deal can be discerned from them. I'll check the odds on the day to see it it's worth betting then.

The first semi final was on last night featuring  Albania, Armenia, Belarus, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, F.Y.R. Macedonia, Finland, Georgia, Greece, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Russia, Serbia and The Netherlands. Ten of the sixteen countries move on to the Grand Final on Saturday. Five countries, included the UK, have magically pre-qualified for the final. Confused yet? Most likely you won't have the stomach to get through three Eurovisions in some kind of Groundhod Day-esque nightmare, so to cut a long story short Moldova, Netherlands, Finland, Macedonia, Belarus and Denmark have already got the boot. Russia was the standout and has come down in the betting odds (now 3-1). It's an odd one to judge because politically Russia is currently poles apart from a 'Eurovision vibe' but at the same time their song this year cynically or otherwise ticks every box, inclusive, humanity themed, anthemic, and so who knows how this will go down with voters. They avoided getting booed at least, unlike last year.

As naff as I make it sound, there legitimately are a fair few good songs in the 2015 Eurovision, which makes it a tricky one to call. Expect another update before the final.

Update: The background visuals for the Swedish entry really were something else. Its going to be difficult to top, and I can well see why it's still short favourite. I'd be tempted to have a bet on this to win at 6/4, and a bet on  Mørland & Debrah Scarlett - A Monster Like Me to come top four. Odds for that are a decent 4-1.