SPOTY is a departure from my usual reality TV shows, but I reckon it still falls under my TellyBetting remit.
First up is the main event itself. Let us look at some figures in relation to the three main contenders and only realistic winners - Lewis Hamilton, Chris Hoy and Rebecca Adlington.
Formula 1 has provided six winners in all. Swimming two and Cycling one. The interesting area is looking at winners in Olympic years. In Olympic years sice 1960, eight of twelve winners have been Olympians (Two of those twelve have been F1 drivers) - they don't always win in Olympic years.
Chris Hoy is the most successful UK Olympian since 1908. I can't have him as a winner though. Cycling is too minority a sport and he isn't very captivating to listen to.
Adlington comes across brilliantly on TV and will surely grab the housewives/Daily Mail vote by the sackload. Expect some puns involving shoes and a lot of screentime.
Hamilton is a strong favourite,involved in possibly the most exciting sporting moment of the year. The BBC have F1 next year so will push him more than they might have done in the past. He has a legion of petrolhead fans as well.
Don't spend a penny on this market until the night, when you can watch the edit and timings etc. Keep your eyes peeled in the press as well for campaigns, polls etc. For what it's worth, Adlington is my pick at the moment, but my powder is being kept dry.