The Fourth Commandment: Don't Always Back Who You Like

Sorry, been a long delay in the Commandments due to my bone idleness.

This may or may not apply to you all.
Personally, the people I like don't win TV shows. I take this as a compliment because they are usually pillocks.

Don't let personal opinions of contestants rule your head too much. You probably do not represent the average voting demographic so your opinion while not worthless isn't of much value.

The Third Commandment: Get The Best Possible Odds

Quick post today as I have been watching the football all evening. I suspect you all know this already anyway.

You must get the best odds you can (as long as the bookie is solvent and trustworthy). This applies to betting generally and is non-negotiable. The only caveat being if a company limits your stake size.

Seven to go!

The Second Commandment: Information Is King

This is a more general rule that applies to betting as a whole. The general theory is that you only make money when the actual odds are wrong. You can only know that the odds are wrong if you know more than the bookies (or find out quicker).

TV betting is a lot less reliant on statistics than other forms of betting. There is not a lot out there at the moment. This makes it difficult for the market makers to compile accurate odds. Usually they just follow Betfairs odds, but that can be a case of compounding mistakes. Betfairs markets are often obviously wrong as well.

So how to find the ricks in the market? Research. Youtube, Facebook, Yahoo Pipes (a current work in progress), Polls, Google, Twitter, Trendrr, Media Outlets, TellyBetting! Pro-punters will study horse form for hours using highly advanced methods so why not TV punters.

Once you have research, try to apply numbers to it. That way you will spot any trends early and this is the key to making regular, reliable money.

So, go hit the books!

The First Commandment: Expect the Unexpected

Reality TV is about two things - Ratings and Money. It is not like sport which has rigid rules and a level playing field. This is crucial to understand. The more the entertaining the show, the more viewers. Viewers will not switch on to Big Brother to watch the house getting along swimmingly - they want conflict and lots of it. Failing that, they want love, lust and hopefully, sex! So the shows will often swing a lot - especially on commercial channels.

So as gamblers how can we use it? The first thing is protect yourself against the 'Black Swan' that if occurs will wipe you out (or give your betting bank a bloody nose). Looking closely at the shows and trying and predict how things will pan out is normally good but you will miss things - being late to things is usually as bad due to the market having shifted - you can't sit in front of Big Brother for twenty hours a day (unless you are a student).

So the point is to not leave yourself overexposed on a single possibility - no matter how unlikely. If Manchester United go a goal down at home, laying 1-0 at 1000-1 is sensible because it won't happen due to very fixed rules. It TV betting it may happen at a producers whim - Nikki Graham re-entering the house, for example. Recently, the phone vote scandals and crackdowns have seen a reduction of these spontaneous and random rule changes that cost the viewers money but it still can and does happen.

Laying Sylvia to go as third eviction of Big Brother, as someone did last summer at 1000-1 cost someone badly - fine if you have £100,000 in your account but risky if you have £2000.

Diana Vickers getting Laryngitis is another good example of how fickle fate can be to the gambler. It killed her chances stone dead.

So in summary, if possible, prepare for anything.

The Ten Commandments Of TV Betting

I thought it would be nice to put together a list of rules that if followed should give us the best chance of winning on TV show betting. Once created, I intend to keep the rules in a prominent place in the sidebar to constantly remind us what to do and what not to do.

Ten rules should be enough, although we may need less. Please leave your suggestions below as you will no doubt have other ideas which work well for you. A lot of the rules will apply to general gambling as well.

One rule, I will ignore is below is:

'Don't publish your betting research on the web and give away your edge.'

First Commandment coming soon!