Tuesday 11 November 2008

Is the X Factor a number?

I have been wondering for while about the possibility of a mathmatical formula to predict outcomes of reality shows. This would be very useful and take all the emotion and subjective thought out of betting and leave me with an objective result. I have decided to try and make one with your help.

Firstly, we need variables and figures to put in the equation. I will need your help with this one.

XF = X Factor - The number produced by the formula which shows a contestants weekly rating.

JI = Judge Input - A numerical figure derived from the judges comments. This is going to be very tricky to do.

IT = Internet Traffic - A term used to encompass all internet research.

RO = Running Order - Should be self-explanatory

PPV = Previous Phone Votes - God, I would love these figures! But we will have to do without.

RV = Regional Vote - Some contestants benefit from a regional bias.

SA = Sex Appeal - Probably has a little value

Have I missed any out? Please leave feedback. I will start creating the formula tonight.


C = Culture - I am going to avoid race, but some cultures will be less popular than others.

E = Edit - Can't believe I forgot this.

EE = Expressed Emotion - Tears!

P = Performance - Not as important as you would think!

This is going to take some time to produce!


  1. was trying to think along same lines

    came up with following form factors:

    Performance overlaps with SCD
    VT(+ve/-ve) + length of
    Negative Comments from Judges
    You tube stats
    google stats

    and more subjectively:

    competing with other contestants for share of same voting blocks
    likeability/connection with audience

  2. Cheers, I saw your Betfair thread and it reminded me to do this.

    Is skin colour a factor nowadays?

    I personally think it probably isn't anymore.

  3. I think colour and culture probably still are factors.

    One swallow does not make a summer.