How reliable are Youtube views?

I thought I would repost this for the benefit of people who joined the blog recently.

Recently, I have been wondering about the validity of Youtube as a pointer to a persons popularity while betting on TV shows. Although it is good,I have suspected it was easily manipulated - much like a lot of internet polls. However, I don't believe people are doing it yet, although that may change on reading this!

This is the tool to do it. It is relatively slow, but left on overnight it could play havoc with view numbers on certain videos.



Is it wrong to mislead people in order to win cash?

I am seriously thinking of having a go with this in the next year. Don't say you weren't warned!

Weekend review

Well, last night turned out to be a good night for me. Both my eviction predictions were correct and I even nailed the bottom two in Strictly Come Dancing and X Factor.

I personally find that the outright markets are more difficult to predict and less profitable but easier to get out of a bad position and have a lot more liquidity.

This research orientated way to win money will continue next week.

X Factor musings

Bad Lashes - I thought they were very poor. Rightly shipped out.

Scott Bruton - He was stitched up by the song choice. He looks like he can perform on stage but his voice is poor. Not a winner in my book.

Alexandra Burke - Good voice but I wouldn't back her at the moment. Set up for her last night, she couldn't go wrong.

Austin Drage - A poor start from one of the supposed favourites. I have a feeling he will stay for a while. Now is the time to bet on him

Daniel Evans - Cheesy and can't sing, but lovable. I have a feeling that this guy is a lot more popular than he deserves to be. Rumour is that his back up song is Unchained Melody which would make him very strong in a sing-off. Back to lay - but not much.

Girlband - Going soon.

Rachel Hylton - An interesting one. She was fed a terrible song which was designed not show her talents. They either want rid of her or are setting her up for a story. I have her onside at the moment but am not risking a lot.

JLS - Slick. Look like like top 4 act. Next weeks Michael Jackson theme will play into their hands. I still can't see their price moving too much for a while. The only thing that worries me is their group status.

Ruth Lorenzo - She has a good voice but a complete absence of support.

Eoghan Quigg - He did well. I think he could go all the way. The make-up guys sorted him out and he has the teen vote and the Irish vote to come. Back him at 10's - you will be able to trade it.

Diana Vickers - Great performance and a early shout as potential winner. I think she may struggle if asked to tackle other types of music. I would want to see her again before putting my hard-earned down.

Laura White - Very solid performance but it was set up for her on a plate. Good song choice and last on. She is now underpriced on the exchanges. She will have to brilliant every week just to keep that price and that will not happen. Lay.

The X Factor finally gets going

Well, here we are. The final twelve. You know who they are and you have your own ideas. Lets look at the rules of X-Factor betting:

1) If a man and woman are of equal standard, the man will win.
2) It is a popularity contest not a singing contest.
3) It is harder for a group to win.
4) Look at the general press reports.
5) Remember it is shown in Ireland.
6) Running order matters.
7) Watch sister shows if possible.
8) Rules are made to be broken.

I have held off bettng properly until I see them perform live. It should be good and hopefully profitable.