Tuesday 6 January 2009

The Oscar's 2009 Betting: Special Guest Post

Richard at www.100betting.co.uk has studied the recent winners of the three main betting categories in an attempt to unearth some trends that could help us make the Oscars a profitable affair.

One thing to remember: Academy members nominate in the first instance to get it down to five nominees per category. They then vote again on those five nominees to decide on a winner.

A strong theme for this year’s Oscars could well be that of optimism. In the midst of an economic crisis that has crippled the USA one has a funny feeling that the ‘against all odds’ and feel good films could out. So too could the patriotic vote - the American movie industry needs its films to do well.

Leading Actor

2000 Russell Crowe Gladiator

2001 Denzel Washington Training Day

2002 Adrien Brody The Pianist

2003 Sean Penn Mystic River

2004 Jamie Foxx Ray

2005 Philip Seymour Hoffman Capote

2006 Forest Whitaker The Last King of Scotland

2007 Daniel Day-Lewis There Will Be Blood

Looking at the past eight winners there are definite trends that could point us in the right direction:

* Take out Adrien Brody’s performance in The Pianist and the other seven performances were of strong, larger than life characters - even the Deputy Dog sounding Capote.

* Performances of real life characters won in 04, 05 and 06, suggesting that another for the 2008 winner would be overload.

* After four consecutive winners from films set in the ‘past’, time could be ripe for a contemporary winner.

Leading Actress

2000 Julia Roberts Erin Brokovich

2001 Halle Berry Monster’s Ball

2002 Nicole Kidman The Hours

2003 Charlize Theron Monster

2004 Hillary Swank Million Dollar Baby

2005 Reese Witherspoon Walk The Line

2006 Helen Mirren The Queen

2007 Mario Cotillard La Vie en Rose

Looking at the past eight winners there are definite trends that could point us in the right direction:

* Take out Reese Witherspoon and the other seven winners have all portrayed women with a definite ‘struggle’. Whether they fought against the ‘system’, the law or history, they in essence gave a performance of unexpected strength in the face of adversity in all its forms.

* The last two winners have been historical figures and just like the Leading Actor category, I cannot see them repeating the dose this year. They also both happened to be foreign actresses - again a third in row is very unlikely.

* The last eight winners have also tended to follow a historical (set pre-1990)-contemporary repeating pattern. If the pattern holds true then I’d be looking at a contemporary winner.

Best Picture

2000 Gladiator

2001 A Beautiful Mind

2002 Chicago

2003 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

2004 Million Dollar Baby

2005 Crash

2006 The Departed

2007 No Country for Old Men

Looking at the past eight winners there are definite trends that could point us in the right direction:

* The first thing to notice is that the Best Picture is exactly that - the best film taking into account the some of all its parts. In fact only Million Dollar Baby provided an Oscar for Actor/Actress in a Leading Role - Hillary Swank.

* The last three winners have all been quite graphic, especially the last two in which violence was the running theme. A more serene winner this year?

* From 2001 onwards the winner has tended to be a film in which there is more than one main character, more than one big named actor/actress and certainly from 2002 onwards the portrayal of a ‘multi-character journey’. There’s no real ‘solo’ film where one big named actor/actress dominates in the line up of past winners.

So there you have it, some pointers that should help you in your trading of the Oscars. Final nominations are announced on the 22nd January and I'll be back then to apply these key points to the final five in each category, as well as previewing the Oscars for Best Direcor and the Supporting Roles.

Until then keep coming back to www.tellybetting.com for more Dancing On Ice and Celebrity Big Brother news. And if it is sports betting you're interested in then check us out at www.100betting.co.uk.

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