Here is a quick look at a graph from Votefair showing why I am confident of landing the first two.
Keen TV gamblers like to talk of the concept of Vote Transference - voting for someone else if your personal favourite goes. I have never been really convnced that it affects things that much but others disagree with me and always take it into account.
The way that the Votefair ranking has Danny so low suggests that he is nobody's second favourite - you either vote for him or you don't. So if Vote Tranference concept is a correct assumption, not much will be transfering Danny's way.
A caveat though (isn't there always one), the middle America Christian voters are not represented well on these research polls. Many millions wait to vote until the final night. The religious phone vote powder may have been kept dry.
Fascinating stuff, isn't it?