EU Referendum Odds

There's a lot going on in politics right now with Brexit here in the UK and the soap opera like US primary season across the pond, leading into November's presidential election, which is bound to be equally explosive. Both still have a fair way to go but it can't hurt to lay out the betting odds so that we can return to them later down the line. In this first post I'll cover the EU referendum.



With daily scaremongering from both side and interjections from across the pond (Obama etc) the IN and OUT of the EU campaigns have already taken off the gloves. I can only imagine how low they will both be willing to go in the run up to the referendum which is being held on Thursday, 23rd June. Most newspapers of course have a slant of their and own only tend to highlight polls that push their own particular point of view. Even collating polls in a seemingly unbiased manner can be problematic, as various polling companies are known to be somewhat partial in one direction or another, with polling itself being used to influence opinion.

The whole polling industry in the UK is all over the place compared to the US where you can generally gleam a lot of insights from polling data. For what it's worth though, above I've included the most recent poll data available. From this alone it would appear that the IN campaign is still in good shape. It does seem somewhat at odds with the media push though and also anecdotally when I ask people how they intend to vote. Then again that's of limited help as I live in one of the most conservative parts off the country.

Here are the current betting odds from various bookmakers courtesy of Odd Checker:

These broadly fall in line with the polls right now, though with a while to go until the referendum anything can change. Also, certain demographics such as the elderly tend to be more eager to get out to the polls. They're a group that tends to favour the OUT vote. There's a way to go yet and so it will be interesting to follow up on this in a month or so to see the lay of the land then.

General Election 2015: The Current Picture

The guardian's Election Poll Projection collates all available polls of note and attempts to draw conclusions with regard to how many seats each party will win come election day. UK polling isn't anywhere near as spot on as in the States, with constituency polling limited at best. That said, it's still possible to build a broad idea of the impact of voting intentions, debates and so on.

The biggest surprise in this elections polling so far, is how it's been stuck in deadlock territory for so long. In fact  so much so that at time of posting Labour and the Conservatives are both projected to win 271 seats. Unless there is a major shift before the election, or the projections are way out, a little movement this way or that in the polls seems largely academic as neither party will be able to secure a majority.

With that in mind, it all comes down to who is willing to deal with whom to secure either a coalition government or alternatively vote by vote agreements under a minority government. Should current projects be accurate it's very difficult to see how Tories would cobble together a coalition to begin with. Even an ambitious/fanciful pact with the Liberal Democrats + UKIP + DUP wouldn't get them over the line. As for Labour, an SNP coalition would likely comfortably see them gain a majority, though politically that move might not be the most popular in England. A Labour minority government operating vote by vote with the SNP could feasibly work though.

Who out of the Tories and Labour gain the most seats could at least symbolically impact the likelihood of this outcome or that. Currently the bookmakers have a Labour minority government at 2-1, a Conservative minority at 3-1 and a repeat of the Tory-Lib Dem coalition at 7-1. Whoever out of Labour or Conservatives  claims the authority to form a government will need to get their Queen' Speech and Budget voted through first. It could get messy.

'Leaders Debate' and 'The Voice' Follow Up

Not a bad few results of late. The Voice 2015 final went very much along the lines put forward in our Winning Act Betting Tips post, where we suggested fireman Stevie McCrorie would win. I definitely feel that Stevie McCrorie's backstory aided his victory in a series where the brief nature of the live stages often means that it's hard to draw an affinity to any of the contestants. He did have a sterling voice too though as did the runner up Lucy O'Byrne. Will.i.am did a great job of promoting his act and she and McCrorie are totally different so there was an aspect of 'apple and oranges' about it. It's a shame the BBC won't release voting percentages as I'd love to have seen how close the result was.

Regarding our Leaders Debate Bingo post, it was slightly mixed fortunes. We suggested that Nigel Farage would win the debate, when the actual 'poll of polls' result showed that it was pretty much a three way tie between David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nigel Farage with the SNP's Nicola Sturgeon narrowly behind (though she did win one of the individual polls).

We had more success on the 'bingo' tips, where if a certain phrase is mentioned during the debate, you win. "Hard working families" was said during the debate as was "Tony Blair" which we highlighted at generous odds of 13/2. This bet was a great opportunity because with seven leaders involved they all spoke at a mile a minute in order to make the most of their airtime.

Leaders' Debate Bingo

Tomorrow it's the televised leaders debate, taking place in Salford. Leaders from seven political parties (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP, SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party. No Northern Irish presence) take to the stage to tell us why they deserve our vote. Many will no doubt avoid tuning in, others will have a sick bag handy, but some of us will brave it.

 Much has been said about the debate running order in recent days, with David Cameron getting much later slots in the debate, effectively giving him the right of reply over Ed Miliband on numerous occasions, and the 'last word' right at the very end of the program. Miliband is well positioned, physically at least, for this debate though (podium order: Natalie Bennett, Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage, Ed Miliband, Leanne Wood, Nicola Sturgeon and David Cameron). He also exceeded expectations, according to the polls, in Sky's recent Cameron vs Miliband interview.

Current odds have both David Cameron and Ed Miliband at 4/1 to win the leaders' debate with the other party leaders ranging from 10/1 to 25/1.  Bar one of course because the favourite to win the debate is in fact UKIP's Nigel Farage at 7/4. I can't say I'm surprised really, as despite the polarising  politics, he does know how to hold himself. He's calm, forthright and focused. A populist or some would say opportunist. The anti politician. Unlike the Labour and Tory leaders who are neck and neck in the polls, he doesn't really have to worry about losing a point or two and being deemed a failure. This is an opportunity for UKIP and I can see why, with the vote being split so many ways, Farage would be favourite to win this debate.

Should you be for up for a game of Leaders' Debate Bingo, I suggest betting on the 'to say at any time' phrase market. This is a long debate, so I'm surprised to see what appear to be some quite generous odds on the face of it. 11/8 for the term 'hard working families' seems generous for instance, as does a mention of Tony Blair at 13/2. It's a 2 hour long debate. I recommend choosing a handful of these.


Selections: Nigel Farage to win debate 7/4