Wednesday 1 April 2015

Leaders' Debate Bingo

Tomorrow it's the televised leaders debate, taking place in Salford. Leaders from seven political parties (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP, SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party. No Northern Irish presence) take to the stage to tell us why they deserve our vote. Many will no doubt avoid tuning in, others will have a sick bag handy, but some of us will brave it.

 Much has been said about the debate running order in recent days, with David Cameron getting much later slots in the debate, effectively giving him the right of reply over Ed Miliband on numerous occasions, and the 'last word' right at the very end of the program. Miliband is well positioned, physically at least, for this debate though (podium order: Natalie Bennett, Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage, Ed Miliband, Leanne Wood, Nicola Sturgeon and David Cameron). He also exceeded expectations, according to the polls, in Sky's recent Cameron vs Miliband interview.

Current odds have both David Cameron and Ed Miliband at 4/1 to win the leaders' debate with the other party leaders ranging from 10/1 to 25/1.  Bar one of course because the favourite to win the debate is in fact UKIP's Nigel Farage at 7/4. I can't say I'm surprised really, as despite the polarising  politics, he does know how to hold himself. He's calm, forthright and focused. A populist or some would say opportunist. The anti politician. Unlike the Labour and Tory leaders who are neck and neck in the polls, he doesn't really have to worry about losing a point or two and being deemed a failure. This is an opportunity for UKIP and I can see why, with the vote being split so many ways, Farage would be favourite to win this debate.

Should you be for up for a game of Leaders' Debate Bingo, I suggest betting on the 'to say at any time' phrase market. This is a long debate, so I'm surprised to see what appear to be some quite generous odds on the face of it. 11/8 for the term 'hard working families' seems generous for instance, as does a mention of Tony Blair at 13/2. It's a 2 hour long debate. I recommend choosing a handful of these.

Selections: Nigel Farage to win debate 7/4

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