In
recent years the global political landscape has been more
exhilarating than a box set of Game of Thrones, replete with far more
intrigue, drama and backstabbing. We have seen shock result after
shock result, as cataclysmic events take place with alarming
regularity and embarrassed pollsters routinely look for somewhere to
hide. Some punters have made a killing by going against the grain,
and here are the biggest political betting shocks since political
betting became a thing:
Trump
wins the US election
We
had to start with this, the greatest political upset of all-time,
which saw a TV personality who once suffered a Stone Cold Stunner on
WWE become the most powerful man in the world. Donald Trump, who
fires people on The Apprentice, who made cameos in Home Alone 2 and
The Simpsons, a man with no political experience whatsoever, won the
presidential election. Not only did he win, he beat Hillary Clinton,
the most archetypal political establishment figure imaginable. She is
married to the former president and had just served as Secretary of
State in Barack Obama’s reign, and she represented a party that
appeared to be in the total ascendancy. Meanwhile Trump massively
offended women, black people, Hispanic people, all manner of minority
groups, and he still won.
In
doing so, he completely upended US political thinking and the
bookmakers took an absolute pasting. Trump started off as 100/1 to
win the election, and was backed all the way in to 13/8, but remained
the underdog throughout. One bookmaker even paid out on Clinton in
the previous October, when she had a healthy lead in the polls, and
they suffered badly again when Trump triumphed. Trump has widely been
pilloried during his time as president, but it is not hard to imagine
him winning the next election too as he has a devout legion of
followers, so that could be worth bearing in mind when analysing
the political
betting markets.
Britain
votes for Brexit
Before
Trump turned the world on its head, Britain had already sent
shockwaves across the globe by voting in favour of exiting the EU.
The Remain camp was well ahead in the polls during campaigning, and
it was expected to secure a comfortable victory. However, Michael
Gove, Boris Johnson and co masterminded a victory that paved the way
for Trump’s, one based on powerful slogans, effective social media
campaigning and bold claims that were not necessarily factual. Remain
was the huge favourite and Leave was a heavy outsider, and the
bookmakers were accused of getting it wrong when Brexit was voted
through. But bookies are not pollsters and their job is not to
predict the outcome of an election. They are businesses trying to
make money, and the Brexit vote was an extremely profitable one for
them as many punters were lumping on Remain. Those that went against
the crowd also made a killing.
Conservatives
defy the odds in 2015
A
few years ago all the UK polls had Labour as the overwhelming
favourites to beat the Tories in the general election. David
Cameron’s government was reeling and the bookmakers responded by
offering huge odds of 7/1 on a Conservative majority. It was
therefore a surprise when a pensioner
walked into a branch of Ladbrokes in Glasgow and put £30,000 on a
Tory majority,
all in crisp £50 notes. Reporters were incredulous, but that punter
must have been laughing all the way to the bank when the
Conservatives absolutely trounced Ed Miliband’s party and won 330
seats.
Corbyn
wins the Labour leadership contest
Miliband’s
crushing election defeat sparked his immediate resignation and an
ensuing leadership contest. Andy Burnham was the early favourite,
followed by Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall, and the marginal,
left-leaning backbencher Jeremy Corbyn was a 100/1 outsider. He is
arguably Trump’s polar opposite, but Corbyn is another man that
represents an utter rejection of the political establishment. He had
made the fewest expenses claims of any MP, had voted against his
party more than 500 times and was a long-time peace activist.
Corbynmania swept the nation, and he ended up cruising to victory in
the leadership contest. He has since defied several attempts from
within the party to overthrow his leadership and nearly won the last
general election, performing far better than was expected, ending the
Conservatives’ majority and destroying Theresa May’s credibility.
Ventura
fights his way to success
The
US has seen some interesting political candidates achieve shock
success, from Trump and Ronald Reagan to Arnold “The Governator”
Schwarzenegger, but it is pretty hard to top Jesse Ventura’s 1998
victory in the race to be named Minnesota’s governor. Ventura, a
former wrestler nicknamed The Body, was the ultimate novelty
candidate and never expected to win. He was an independent with no
manifesto, doing it for a joke, up against Norm Coleman, a
Republican, and Skip Humphrey, a Democrat. Ventura was so sure he
would lose that he had booked a flight to Argentina the day after the
election, but he had to cancel it and hastily put together a victory
speech after a shock win.
Martin
Green is an experienced tipster and betting correspondent and has
been fascinated by political developments over the last few years.