Wednesday 18 October 2023

Horse Trainer: Understanding John Gosden, Training Juveniles (2yo)

John Gosden OBE, is a British horse trainer, with over 3,000 winners worldwide. Training at Clarehaven Stables Newmarket, England. He was won prestigious races including the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Epsom Derby, Arc de Triomphe, King George and Eclipse.

The son of John ‘Towser’ Gosden, he started his training career assisting Vincent O’Brien and Sir Noel Murless, in Ireland.

In 1979, he moved to California to become an assistant trainer to Tommy Doyle, before attaining his own licence. Originally, training just three horses, renting individual boxes as he couldn’t afford a yard.

John Gosden is one of the most respected horse trainers and a great communicator.

After studying his two-year-old runners for the last decade, here are my findings.

Over the period of study. Gosden achieved a debut strike rate of 15%. In fact, over 50% of all debutantes have been priced 13/2 and less sp (starting price). Debutantes can win up to 25/1. Percentage wise, he has few first time out winners early season. Surprisingly, 80% of his racehorses win on debut from July – October. Other pointers for betting on horses making their racecourse bow:

  • Odds on shots very difficult to beat. Generally, a sign of a high-class juvenile who will be racing at Group class.

  • Best betting guide on debut 13/2 and less sp.

  • Even horses on debut at speculative odds feature value.

Two year old horses making their second starts Gosden, generally, win at more restricted odds. For example, the number of horses winning at double-figure odds second time out is limited.

Other statistics worth noting for two-year-old horses include:

Now training in partnership with his son Thady, the team have a number of courses where their juveniles excel featuring impressive strike rates.

Newcastle (39%), Yarmouth (34%), Chelmsford (31%) and Leicester (30%) are just a few courses to appreciate with two year olds horses on all starts.

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