Saturday, 22 July 2017

Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor

The circus has come to town, or at least you'd be forgiven for thinking so based on the Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor publicity tour. It's been a feast of bombastic showboating and vulgarity, but none of that should surprise us really. It's all about grabbing the headlines and selling tickets and PPV. With the fight purse thought to be around the $300 million dollar range, it's no wonder both fighters are going all out to maximise their earnings, for what in reality is very unlikely to be the fight of the century.

McGregor has more than done himself proud in the UFC. He's had a real rags to riches story and there is no faulting his talent or dedication to MMA. However, boxing is a different beast altogether and when I first saw the odds for this bout, I have to say that I was surprised McGregor wasn't a bigger price. He has so much counting against him going into this: his lack of boxing experience, the weight of the gloves, the unrivalled abilities of his opponent. On the surface it really is mostly bad news. He has youth on his side though, and he has bravado. I think he'll 'go for it!', but he's facing possibly the best defensive fighter in boxing history.

All of this results in McGregors only real hope in my view being a powerful combination early on (the gloves are 10oz rather than the typical UFC 6oz gloves - so punch power will be reduced). Other than that Mayweather not being in prime condition since he's back from retirement, is a potential issue, or maybe the 'fire is gone'. I don't see sign of any of that though. The betting odds echo my doubts that McGregor will win (though I'm surprised he's only 6-1).

Shock result aside, the only question left to ask is how will Mayweather win the fight? There's not much value in 1/7 for the win, round betting is a bit of a shot in the dark too. Mayweather to win by KO TKO or Disqualification is 4/6, and a win by Decision or Technical Decision is 2-1. Honestly, it's a difficult one to call. While Mayweather is used to 10oz gloves and will have an easier target than usual, it's worth noting that he hasn't knocked anyone out since Victor Ortiz in 2011 (and that was a sucker punch!) and before that Ricky Hatton way back in 2007! Still, even with that in mind, McGregor isn't a boxer and I think he'll get caught enough to stop the fight at some point. 50-0-0 for Mayweather by the end of  26th August!

Bet: Floyd Mayweather Jnr - Win by KO TKO or Disqualification -  4/6

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