Wednesday, 31 December 2008

Another Terrible TV Ratings Bet?

Why do I do it to myself?

After the Christmas Day ratings loss I vowed not to bet on TV ratings. Then I spotted the Celebrity Big Brother bet to the left on Paddy Power's website.

Big Brother Celebrity Hijack peaked at 3.21 million in 2008. Celebrity Big Brother peaked at 7.32 million in 2007. In 2006 it was 6.68 million and 2005 it was 5.4 million.

I personally think the ratings will not surpass 7 million this year. I might have a tickle at 6-7 million viewers - not much though!

Tuesday, 30 December 2008

TellyBetting's New Year Resolutions

Here is how I intend to improve my betting in 2009:

1) Play the long game more - I have picked the winner early in many shows but lost profit to being an inveterate fiddler. Big Brother in particular is bad, locking in piddling profits on Betfair instead of playing the long game.

2) Research more - with TV betting you can know at least as much as the bookies.

3) Back my methods - if some analysis shows results that really don't make any sense, I don't always back it. I should, the contrarian approach pays dividends.

4) Bigger stakes - Don't tell the missus!

5) Be quicker to get infomation - With shows like IACGMOOH and Big Brother (very interesting to see what will happen in the summer) shying away from the expense and potential loss of footage control of twenty four coverage. This means more infomation is coming from the press via offical releases and un/official leaks. I have recently set up RSS feeds and Google Alerts directing infomation to me as soon as it made public. In only few days it has been very effective. I intend to direct my TV betting news feed page to this site which should help you all as well as me (just working out how to do it most effectively as it currently sends me a lot of guff as well).

6) Look for new sources of infomation - Obvious really. I am currently looking at Twitter which I think could be a very useful source in the near future.

7) Continue with the site. I think it has improved my TV betting a lot so far (f***ing TV ratings betting excepted - I am still annoyed with myself).

8) Expand the site - I want a TV betting database and News Feed for starters.

9) Audit my methods - I hate the word audit but I need to find out what works and what doesn't.

10) Win more. A lot more.

Monday, 29 December 2008

The Third Commandment: Get The Best Possible Odds

Quick post today as I have been watching the football all evening. I suspect you all know this already anyway.

You must get the best odds you can (as long as the bookie is solvent and trustworthy). This applies to betting generally and is non-negotiable. The only caveat being if a company limits your stake size.

Seven to go!

Friday, 26 December 2008

The Second Commandment: Information Is King

This is a more general rule that applies to betting as a whole. The general theory is that you only make money when the actual odds are wrong. You can only know that the odds are wrong if you know more than the bookies (or find out quicker).

TV betting is a lot less reliant on statistics than other forms of betting. There is not a lot out there at the moment. This makes it difficult for the market makers to compile accurate odds. Usually they just follow Betfairs odds, but that can be a case of compounding mistakes. Betfairs markets are often obviously wrong as well.

So how to find the ricks in the market? Research. Youtube, Facebook, Yahoo Pipes (a current work in progress), Polls, Google, Twitter, Trendrr, Media Outlets, TellyBetting! Pro-punters will study horse form for hours using highly advanced methods so why not TV punters.

Once you have research, try to apply numbers to it. That way you will spot any trends early and this is the key to making regular, reliable money.

So, go hit the books!

Christmas Top Rated TV Show 2008 [Edit]

This is a market I enjoy betting on, if mainly for the fact that every year people try to construct an argument why Eastenders won't win it and then Eastenders wins it!

First up, the graph on the left shows viewing share per channel. This in my opinion narrows it down to BBC1 shows only - goodbye Coronation Street and Dancing On Ice.

This leaves us realistically with Eastenders, Doctor Who, Strictly Come Dancing: Christmas Special and The Royle Family.

Doctor Who is a dark horse and came close last year - missing out by less than a million. I think it will come second this year and is possibly worth a cover bet. Strictly Come Dancing never attracts big, big audiences with it's 'specials' and is worth a lay on Betfair.

The Royle Family is second favourite in the betting. I think it is on 1/2 hour too late and possibly it is a show whose time has passed and is no longer attractive to all and sundry. Another lay.

This leaves us with 'Enders. It has topped four out of the last five years (Vicar of Dibley being exception) and suspect it will top again. The odds are not brilliant but good enough. Try to use a company which lumps both shows as one (eg Betfair).

EDIT

Christmas Day 2008 Overnight Ratings

1 …. 14.3 (53.3%) …. Wallace and Gromit: A Matter of Loaf and Death (20:30) BBC1
2 …. 11.7 (50.5%) …. Doctor Who (18:00) BBC1
3 …. 11.5 (44.9%) …. EastEnders (21:00) BBC1
4 …. 10.0 (41.7%) …. The Royle Family (21:30) BBC1
5 …. 9.9 (40.6%) …. EastEnders (20:00) BBC1
6 …. 9.5 (47.1%) …. BBC News (17:45) BBC1
7 …. 8.6 (35.0%) …. Strictly Come Dancing Christmas Special 2008 (19:00) BBC1
8 …. 7.4 (30.0%) …. Coronation Street (19:00) ITV
9 …. 7.2 (39.8%) …. Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit (16:30) BBC1
10 … 6.4 (42.6%) …. The Queen (15:00)

Well done to Wallace and Gromit backers who backed the clay northerner at 14-1. A very comfortable win with a massive amunt of viewers. I didn't take into account the competing shows enough and paid the price. Annoying but hey, thats bettting. Incidentially, the odds on Eastenders also shifted inwards a lot and by Christmas Eve represented very poor value and probably a lay at around 1.39 on Betfair.

Thursday, 25 December 2008

The First Commandment: Expect the Unexpected

Reality TV is about two things - Ratings and Money. It is not like sport which has rigid rules and a level playing field. This is crucial to understand. The more the entertaining the show, the more viewers. Viewers will not switch on to Big Brother to watch the house getting along swimmingly - they want conflict and lots of it. Failing that, they want love, lust and hopefully, sex! So the shows will often swing a lot - especially on commercial channels.

So as gamblers how can we use it? The first thing is protect yourself against the 'Black Swan' that if occurs will wipe you out (or give your betting bank a bloody nose). Looking closely at the shows and trying and predict how things will pan out is normally good but you will miss things - being late to things is usually as bad due to the market having shifted - you can't sit in front of Big Brother for twenty hours a day (unless you are a student).

So the point is to not leave yourself overexposed on a single possibility - no matter how unlikely. If Manchester United go a goal down at home, laying 1-0 at 1000-1 is sensible because it won't happen due to very fixed rules. It TV betting it may happen at a producers whim - Nikki Graham re-entering the house, for example. Recently, the phone vote scandals and crackdowns have seen a reduction of these spontaneous and random rule changes that cost the viewers money but it still can and does happen.

Laying Sylvia to go as third eviction of Big Brother, as someone did last summer at 1000-1 cost someone badly - fine if you have £100,000 in your account but risky if you have £2000.

Diana Vickers getting Laryngitis is another good example of how fickle fate can be to the gambler. It killed her chances stone dead.

So in summary, if possible, prepare for anything.

Wednesday, 24 December 2008

The Ten Commandments Of TV Betting

I thought it would be nice to put together a list of rules that if followed should give us the best chance of winning on TV show betting. Once created, I intend to keep the rules in a prominent place in the sidebar to constantly remind us what to do and what not to do.

Ten rules should be enough, although we may need less. Please leave your suggestions below as you will no doubt have other ideas which work well for you. A lot of the rules will apply to general gambling as well.

One rule, I will ignore is below is:

'Don't publish your betting research on the web and give away your edge.'

First Commandment coming soon!

Tuesday, 23 December 2008

Merry Christmas

As Noddy Holder once said:

'Ittttttttt's Chrrrrrrrrrrrristmas.'

I would like take this opportunity to wish you all a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

Enough of the niceties. I am not happy about the lack of a live feed on Celebrity Big Brother this year. I suspect it will be more unpredictable than ever - but from a betting point of view it's good, I suppose. It is becoming even more acceptable to be as outrageous as possible in order to gain notoriety and as a result, cash.

As an aside, I intend to start my TellyDatabase in the next few weeks. It will be a page(s) with relevant data for all TV betting shows. It should help betting on these shows enormously.

Merry Christmas

Sunday, 21 December 2008

Strictly Come Dancing: Tomcat Gets The Cream!


TellyBetting strikes again! A few weeks ago in this post, TellyBetting plumped for Tom. The odds were about 6-1 at the time. I will hold my hands up and admit to laying off some profit when the polls closed before taking a big position on Betfair when Tom made the final.

The last dance was brilliant and Tom deserved the title in the end despite the somewhat inconsistent judging.

This series has a been a seriously good one for betting on and I will miss it while it's gone. I find it easy to read and I know many others do as well. I would love to see line betting next year on Betfair, but I doubt it will happen. The key early point for next year is to realise the judges have the power to clear the deadwood early on - no more John Sergeant's will happen next year.

I plan on requesting the voting figures from the BBC for Strictly if they don't release them - a Freedom Of Infomation Act request should do it. We can digest the results on this site at our leisure! I want the results from all the series!

Enjoy your winnings and roll on Celebrity Big Brother and Dancing On Ice!

I would also like some advice from any American Idol experts - I haven't watched it much but I realise this site should cover it.

Friday, 19 December 2008

Do Not Miss The Sun Strictly Poll

The Sun have been running a Strictly Poll all week. They are not letting people look at it as they go along. Instead, they will release the results at one time. This will give the most reliable idea yet of who is most popular. Make sure you look late tonight or tomorrow.

Snippets like this mark the difference between Winners (me and you) and Losers (the non-researching general public)!

Strictly Come Dancing: Preview Of Final


At bloody last, the final. Three left. Here is a quick summary of things so far, lifted from the BBC website.

Tom & Camilla

The final
Tom & Camilla will perform their highest scoring Ballroom dance of the series - the Foxtrot; and their highest scoring Latin routine - the Salsa. If they are in the final two they will perform a group Viennese Waltz with the other finalists, and a show dance.

Strictly stats
Based on performances up to and including semi-final
Average judges' score - 34.1
Average Ballroom score - 35.2
Average Latin score - 33.4
Total number of 10s - 4
Highest scoring dance - 39 for the Foxtrot in the quarter-final
Lowest scoring dance - 28 for the Cha Cha Cha in week 1.

Rachel & Vincent

The final
Rachel & Vincent will perform two of their record-breaking dances of the series; the Rumba, which is their highest scoring Latin routine and a Foxtrot which was awarded a perfect 40 in week 10. If they are in the final two they will perform a group Viennese Waltz with the other finalists, and a show dance.

Strictly stats
Based on performances up to and including semi-final
Average judges' score - 35.3
Average Ballroom score - 36.3
Average Latin score - 33.5
Total number of 10s - 18
Highest scoring dance - 40 for the Foxtrot in week 10
Lowest scoring dance - 30 for the Samba in week 5

Lisa & Brendan

The final
Having achieved full marks for their ballroom dance just last week, Lisa & Brendan will perform their second highest scoring Ballroom dance - the Foxtrot. They will also aim to wow everyone with their top scoring Cha Cha routine. If they are in the final two they will perform a group Viennese Waltz with the other finalists, and a show dance.

Strictly stats
Based on performances up to and including semi-final
Average judges' score - 34.1
Average Ballroom score - 36.6
Average Latin score - 31
Total number of 10s - 11
Highest scoring dance - 40 for the Quickstep in the semi-final
Lowest scoring dance - 22 for the Salsa in week 2

Remember to visit my page summarising the scoring history of the judges. It might help you in your betting. Good luck and remember to not bet too early.

Thursday, 18 December 2008

The Really Early Pointer To The Winner?



This video was knocking around for a while before the current series of Strictly Come Dancing started. I saw it early and like many others - including his family and friends by all accounts - backed accordingly.

Was this our answer all along?

Strictly Come Dancing MSN Poll

Another day, another poll. Decent numbers as well.

This final is going to be very close. The odds should be closer than they are - excepting Lisa of course.

As said before, betting on the night on who you think is the best dancer on the night seems to be the best option.

If he makes the final (he will) I am going to go back in on Tom just before his final dance as I think his odds will plummet. The question then is lay off or not on Betfair?

Wednesday, 17 December 2008

Sports Personality Of The Year 2009

Early I know, but this is the time to do the research and get in with initial thoughts. In a year without a World Cup, Euro's and especially the Olympics to provide heroes, the market is a lot smaller. The past winners in these years are more drawn from ball sports. Let us form a shortlist now of this years main contenders:

Andy Murray - Has to win a Grand Slam to win it. Better odds backing that instead.

Lewis Hamilton - Not good value.

A. Cricketer - Possible, can't tell which one yet. Cook could be a lively outsider if he scores like Gooch did in 1990.

Ricky Hatton - Must beat Pacquiao to have a chance, which is unlikely.

David Haye - Is my current pick. He is class and good with the media.

Kelly Sotherton - The most likely athlete to win it.

Ian Poulter/Paul Casey/Justin Rose - see Andy Murray.

Laura Robson - Will win it within five years (This is something I would bet big on). She is the one possible real outsider for me at the moment for this year. She is increasingly looking like the real deal and the real deal in Women's Tennis can start causing damage at age 15 - Hingis, Austin, Kournilova etc. I can imagine her getting into Wimbledon via a wildcard and winning a few matches. The Daily Mail etc will champion her. Watch this space. Currently 100's but she will drift on Betfair - when she finally gets on the market!

No odds worth taking yet on anyone. Bide your time.

Tuesday, 16 December 2008

Strictly Come Dancing GMTV Poll

This poll is probably much more reliable than the one below.

I think Rachel has a very real chance of overturning Tom's (presumed but strongly evidenced) phone vote lead. Another factor is when they announce that Tom won the phone vote last Saturday. Will it mobilise Rachel's fans to pick up the phone?

Although Rachel was overmarked earlier in the series, her breathtaking Argentine Tango was the dance of the series and will have won a lot of fans. The released X Factor results show that people switch allegiance easily and often (I will post on this in depth soon).

Personally, I am strongly green on Betfair on Rachel and Tom so I am in an enviable position. My advice is to lay Lisa on Betfair, who has no chance at all, then watch on Saturday before betting more on the outright winner.

Strictly Come Dancing Yahoo Poll Update



Please remember that Yahoo Polls are notoriously unreliable.

Monday, 15 December 2008

Sports Personality Of The Year 2008 Review

Here are the votes, it was a bloody landslide:

Chris Hoy 283,630 votes
Lewis Hamilton 163,864
Rebecca Adlington 145,924
Ben Ainslie 35,472
Joe Calzaghe 34,077
Andy Murray 19,415
Nicole Cooke 18,256
Christine Ohuruogu 7,677
Bradley Wiggins 5,633
Rebecca Romero 4,526

As I said here, wait until the night itself. It was good advice. Adlington came across as rather dull. She also looked terrible which also isn't a great vote winner. Hoy was the consumate gentleman whilst Hamilton is just too much of a robot to enamour the public into picking up the phone.

The regional vote also played a part in my opinion. I am kicking myself for not acting on this obvious factor. Well done to Chris Hoy though.

Personally, I didn't bet in the end on the main event - just didn't fancy it in the end. The Overseas Personality was annoying (poor research on my part in not checking who votes) but Young Personality was a nice win.

One thing to remember for next year is that the main contenders odds dived when they were on the show, they then returned to pre-interview levels quickly. A cracking future trading opportunity if ever there was one.

Strictly Come Dancing: What to do?

What a cock-up. This was so easily predictable. The BBC really should have seen this a mile off, myself and many others did.

I have not fully planned what to do with my bets now - excepting the fact that I greened up on the Winner's market as soon as possible. Risk Management is the name of the game here while they continue too make up the rules as they go along.

My advice is to green up any profit and watch It Takes Two in order to watch the dances. Regarding the outright, I feel Rachel has really closed the gap on Tom in the last two weeks in the eyes of the public - I will try to find some evidence of this later.

Regarding the dances on Saturday, Tom's modified Quickstep (Showdance) is a 40 in waiting but the others are less clear at the moment. The Fred Astaire twist with Tap section will go down a storm.

More soon, it's going to be a busy week!

Sunday, 14 December 2008

The TellyBetting Blog: Help Wanted!

TellyBetting has been going a couple of months now and is starting to toddle!

Personally, I have found it very interesting. Finding out about the dark world of blogs has been fun, as has playing around with HTML in order to create pointless but satisfying changes to the layout. I am planning on making a few more cosmetic alterations soon, in order to make the site easier to read. The site traffic has increased in the last few weeks so hopefully I am doing something right so far! I certainly think it is field of betting which will continue to grow in the next few years and infomation for gamblers is lacking.

Do I enjoy the shows? When there is no money on it, I sometimes watch but find them generally dull. With cash staked, it becomes an fascinating study into reading both the public and the editors thoughts and I love it.

I have a day job and a young family which keep me very busy and I often don't have enough time to update when I want - this massive weekend being a case in point. It would be awesome to increase the frequency (and quality?) of postings. To this end, one thing I would really like is to share the work in writing (and hopefully later on, running) the blog. I would like to get other people with an interest in TV betting to offer their ideas and advice. There are a lot of gamblers out there who bet on TV shows who win a hell of a lot more than me and who have their own successful techniques/theories.

If any readers fancy helping out with posting on TellyBetting please drop a quick line to gus@tellybetting.com and I will be in touch. Who knows where it will lead!

Thursday, 11 December 2008

Strictly Come Dancing: Semi Final Preview

I am away from tomorrow until Sunday so I thought I would post my weekend thoughts early. Below are Boylesports line bets for SCD this week. All odds are at 5/6:




Rachel and Vincent - Argentine Tango 36.5 American Smooth 36.5
Tom and Camilla - Argentine Tango 35.5 Jive 35.5
Lisa and Brendan - Argentine Tango 34.5 Quickstep 36.5

As you can see from my average scores grid here, there are some high scoring dances here.

I like Rachel for overs on both dances, Tom overs in Jive and Lisa overs for Argentine Tango. In all honesty going overs on all bets would probably bring a nice profit.

The judges have too much power for my liking in this, so like a few people, I have backed Tom to win and to go tommorrow (as cover) - as in my opinion, if he makes the final he will win. This is better than sitting out and getting very bad odds if/when Tom makes the final.

Good luck.

Wednesday, 10 December 2008

Hallelujah



The X Factors winners song this year is Hallelujah, originally done by Leonard Cohen (above) and rehashed by Jeff Buckley more recently.

Have a listen and a think who may do it well on finals night. It will probably decide who wins the series.

GMTV Poll

T minus 3 days! The GMTV X Factor Poll is showing an interesting result as you can see left (I know we don't have the actual numbers). I think this shows that Alexandra and JLS have some real momentum behind them now. Although I suspect the voting demographics are older than other polls, I personally think Eoghan is running out of steam.

The headlines about JLS's concert causing mayhem are interesting and it points to them overcoming the biggest obstacle of groups - getting your personality across before you are knocked out. Groups can come across as a shouty mess - see Bad Lashes, Girlband etc. Little Aston is also proving to be very popular and is probably taking a lot of Eoghan's cute teen vote.

Does this mean Eoghan is next out? A lot depends on the shows edit and also on the Irish regional vote. As for Alexandra, I am still not convinced? We shall see very soon.

Tuesday, 9 December 2008

X Factor: Google Trends

A real spike in interest for the final week. Alexandra is starting to get real interest now, which bodes well for her supporters as she was getting none a few weeks ago.

JLS are very popular here but the demographic using Google to search out the acts are not necessarily the same demographic that picks up the phone. Also JLS in itself is a more popular generic search term.

However, it is interesting to see the spikes each week as the show develops.

Monday, 8 December 2008

Young Sports Personality Of The Year

This is lifted direct from the Betfair Forum. It is a superb piece of work with a great, well researched argument. Well done that man:


SOSPAN 08 Dec 19:35
The Top 3 nominees have been announced and I can't for the life of me work out how Aussie Laura Robson is 2/7 fav. Not taking anything away from her achievement of winning Jr Wimbledon but lets face it Annabel Croft won that! Born in Australia to Australian parents, moved to Hong Kong at 6 then comes to Britain and is now being hailed as the next big thing. Did very well but has hardly had any notable publicity since wimbledon.

The other candidates are Tom Daley (won it last year so easily dismissed) and Eleanor Simmonds. She's availiable at 5/2 and for me the prices should be reversed. Golden girl of the Paralympics. Two Gold medals and a world record (sound familiar to the main award?) Has a glowing personality and has been paraded plenty of times since. On top of that, she is only ever likely to win the award in an Olympic year (will be too old when 2012 comes around).

The award is decided upon by a panel chaired by John Inverdale, who each have a vote for the winner via a secret ballot. Inverdale presented both Olympics and Wimbledon so is hard to predict. Other panel members are Jake Humphrey who was used a lot on Olympic presenting so could well favour Simmonds, Andy Martin, head of Olympic and Paralymic Developement for Youth Sports Trust(Simmonds almost definitely), Mike Atkinson, Dir. of comms and policy YST (probably vote same way when you consider 2 of the board members of YST are Duncan Goodhew, olympic smimming gold medal winner and Marc Wood, who won 12 swimming medals in the Paralympics), Henry Aikines-Aryeetey, former winner and promising sprinter who may well favour the Paralympic achievement, Kate Haywood, former winner and a fellow swimmer (Simmonds vote) and a rep from CBBC, BBC Switch and SPOTY, who have not been named.

By my analysis at least 4 of the nine votes should almost definitely go Simmonds way so only needs another one of the other 5 votes available to ensure win. Hence a lot of value in the 5/2 with Sad brokes!!

EDIT: Mr SOSPAN, you are very good! Thank you.

I'm A Celebrity...- Final Yahoo Poll

Well, it picked out Joe Swash as winner so it can't be all bad. However, it's performance in getting the rest in order was terrible.

The total number of votes was statistically significant and pretty good (more than most political polls).

I think it demonstrates how important the edit is in reality shows and that online polls are a dangerous way to make decisions. The SCD poll below and the X Factor polls on this website confirm this. The edit in IACGMOOH and Big Brother is especially crucial.

They are certainly a consideration but don't use polls alone to make your mind up. Watching changes in polls in better though, as this gives youy an idea of momentum e.g. Diana Vickers poll numbers were static after her illness.

Yahoo Update



Quick update of the Yahoo SCD poll. Rachel has closed the gap to nothing. I don't think the poll is particularly valuable but it may be interesting to some of you. It probably shows Lisa will not win which may help you Betfair layers.

Sunday, 7 December 2008

Weekend Review

At last, I almost feel relieved!

A losing week. Lisa obliged but Austin didn't, so I registered a small loss there. This was compounded by my side bet on Tom going out being a loser.

I now feel cathartic!

This blog is fairly new and has got off to a very strong start results wise (I will tally up the overall results in the next few weeks). I am naturally very proud of this and this was probably causing me to close down decent positions on Betfair too early to lock in some profit. I will try to be braver from now on and not tinker!

An early thought for next week. Rachel to get highest score/overs on line betting in the Argentinian Tango. She did well in the normal Tango and with 'Vinthent' an expert in this, she will probably get 40. A bit of dusky eye shadow, a red dress and Vincent leading (a huge and often understated advantage) make this a bet I am confident on (unless the line is 39).

Friday, 5 December 2008

Strictly Come Dancing: Week 12



Tom has failed to progress as expected in the voting. He has stalled somewhat. I am laying him on Betfair and taking a small profit before deciding next week whether to go in again. Austin now has a kickass Latin dance for the final which has sorted his biggest weakness.

So, any good bets this week? Lets start at Boylesport's line bets, which have been very profitable so far. The oddsmakers are much less generous this week and good bets are harder to find. The only two bets I like are firstly over 36.5 for Austin in the American Smooth. I think he is good for 38+. Lisa's Waltz is a 40 in waiting, so go overs on that. Edit: The line has shifted on Lisa, she is no longer a good bet.

The eviction market is interesting this week. Although, Lisa v Rachel is the likely bottom two, Tom could fall into the bottom two in my opinion. If he does, it will be a toss-up who goes. The 6-1 looks big for eviction on Betfair.

Good luck.

Wednesday, 3 December 2008

David Van Day article in the Sun

I have laid my 100-1 DVD bet today at 8's today. I am not sure I believe this article at all.

Now Nicola has gone he has no-one to bounce off and annoy.

If you followed me in with a little bet on DVD consider laying it now.

EDIT: Good timing, that one!

Tuesday, 2 December 2008

Overseas Sports Personality of the Year

The Overseas Award is between two who are impossible to separate.

Michael Phelps is the greatest Olympian ever (some say sportsman) who simply must win. Lovely bloke, who spent a lot of time with the BBC.

Usain Bolt put in possibly the greatest sports performances ever seen, obliterating 'Blue Riband' records. He is a massive personality as well. He was the defining memory of Beijing. A true 'fenom.' He simply must win.

There have been four joint awards in 46 years and this year will be another. The two are simply inseparable (If you do bet, check the rules regarding dead heats with your bookie before you bet). As they are inseparable, back Phelps. It is likely Bolt would win it again if he doesn't win this year - running 9.48 in London 2012 for example. Phelps can't lose it and the award maintain 100% credibility, while Bolt could.

But it will likely be a joint award.

EDIT: My mistake here was not researching who decided this award. It was a panel of reporters who were always more likely to side with the bigger attraction. It used to be BBC staff only. You live and learn!

Sports Personality Of The Year: Petrolheads versus Middle England

SPOTY is a departure from my usual reality TV shows, but I reckon it still falls under my TellyBetting remit.

First up is the main event itself. Let us look at some figures in relation to the three main contenders and only realistic winners - Lewis Hamilton, Chris Hoy and Rebecca Adlington.

Formula 1 has provided six winners in all. Swimming two and Cycling one. The interesting area is looking at winners in Olympic years. In Olympic years sice 1960, eight of twelve winners have been Olympians (Two of those twelve have been F1 drivers) - they don't always win in Olympic years.

Chris Hoy is the most successful UK Olympian since 1908. I can't have him as a winner though. Cycling is too minority a sport and he isn't very captivating to listen to.

Adlington comes across brilliantly on TV and will surely grab the housewives/Daily Mail vote by the sackload. Expect some puns involving shoes and a lot of screentime.

Hamilton is a strong favourite,involved in possibly the most exciting sporting moment of the year. The BBC have F1 next year so will push him more than they might have done in the past. He has a legion of petrolhead fans as well.

Don't spend a penny on this market until the night, when you can watch the edit and timings etc. Keep your eyes peeled in the press as well for campaigns, polls etc. For what it's worth, Adlington is my pick at the moment, but my powder is being kept dry.

Monday, 1 December 2008

TellyBetting's Christmas Wish List

I thought I would get in early with my Christmas wishes:

1) A fair phone vote market across the board - no insider trading.
2) A decent Big Brother with a decent psychological edge.
3) A new monster TV show betting opportunity.
4) No more Dannii Minogue as judge.
5) A new X Factor judge.
6) Strictly Come Dancing back to Saturday night shows only.
7) More liquidity on Betting Exchange markets.
8) New analytical tools on the web.
9) Profit and lots of it.
10) More readers and guest writers with an interest in TellyBetting.

Weekend Review: Austin Healey obliges

Austin Healey (pictured) and Erin obliged with the Foxtrot. Tom came good with the Samba but the Waltz was a let down. Two out of three big bets ain't bad though and rendered a nice profit.

I am very annoyed with myself for not taking the over 4.5 10's at Boylesports. As soon as I saw it, I made a note to back it at 10-11 but plain forgot about it. A stupid, stupid mistake.

My original draft for this weeks predictions was just to back all overs with Boylesports on the line betting. That would have realised a handsome profit this week. Over analysis can sometimes cost me money, and this was a case of not backing my gut instincts doing just that. The analytical route is the one I have taken though, and is probably why you are reading TellyBetting as well.

I was very busy this weekend, so couldn't give my full attention to X Factor, I backed Ruth with a small amount to go as soon as I saw her first performance but at terrible odds as they drifted markedly straight away afterwards. I then went out and missed a massive price drop for Alexandra.

Personally, I often bet less as the series goes on as it sometimes becomes harder to read the winner and the evictions have less attractive odds as the oddsmakers finally start to catch on.

Saturday, 29 November 2008

Tonights X Factor Song Choices - Britney Spears night

Alexandra Burke
- Toxic by Britney
- Listen by Beyonce

Diana Vickers
- I'm Not A Girl, Not Yet A Woman by Britney
- Everybody Hurts by REM

Eoghan Quigg
- Sometimes by Britney
- Together by High School Musical

Ruth Lorenzo
- I Love Rock and Roll by Britney
- Always by Bon Jovi

JLS
- Hit Me Baby One More Time by Britney
- You Light Up My Life by Whitney Houston

Strictly Come Dancing: Average Dance Scores

You lucky people.

I have a real treat for you here. The average scores for all the dances, including 10's information and high and low scores. This is the only such table on the net.



It should be good for predicting 10's over the next few weeks as well as aiding line betting. Have a look, there are some interesting numbers there.

Strictly Come Dancing Scores Graph

Friday, 28 November 2008

GMTV Poll: Who do you think should be booted off The X Factor this weekend?(take with a large pinch of salt)

I think the way to analyse this is to think of this as a list of how much emotion is stirred by the singer.

High scorers in this will also get more phone votes, in my opinion.

Strictly Come Dancing Bets - Week 11

Boylesports has it's line bets up. Let us take a look.

Austin and Erin - Foxtrot and Paso Doble - 34.5 - Overs on Foxtrot is the bet here. It is a traditionally high scoring dance. For Paso, the line looks good.

Tom and Camilla - Waltz and Samba - 35.5 for the Waltz is high but I can see him getting 38+ for this. The Samba bar is 34.5 and I would go in on this for overs as well. He has rhythm and a sense of fun and should do well.

Good luck.

Is the X Factor a number? - 4

Sorry, I have not posted on this particular topic in a while. There is a lot of TV betting at the moment and I simply don't have enough time to research this area. I plan to finish this off during a quiet betting time and run the formula through past series results to perfect it.

Regional Voting (RV) is a difficult one to quantify. Certain regions, those with a real or perceived strong regional identity can vote en bloc to support their own.

Northern Ireland residents in particular, are quick to pick up the phones. The current darling is Eoghan Quigg, who despite being utterly terrible, is proving popular. Leon Jackson would not have won last years X Factor if he was from England. There are many other examples.

X Factor is shown in the Republic of Ireland as well which is worth knowing.

So how to analyse this. To start, I propose that if the contestant is from:

Northern Ireland - multiply final X Factor number by 1.3
Scotland - multiply by 1.4
Wales - multply by 1.1
English areas with a strong regional accent - multiply by 1.05

These numbers will probably change with analysis.

Previous Voting Numbers (PV) - We would love these numbers. Hopefully at the end of the current series we will get them released. We will have to manage without for the moment.

More on this topic soon.

Wednesday, 26 November 2008

X Factor Yahoo Poll Update

IACGMOOH Poll Results



Here is a rough chart showing the Yahoo Poll results so far for IACGMOOH. I know it is incomplete (no DVD and Mallet) but I reckon it will help predict evictions and winners. I know I won't back him, but I wouldn't oppose Joe at the moment looking at this.

Regarding eviction, there may be some decent value now the immunity cards are gone.

Also not so good was the return of the insider money on Betfair. The late plunge on Kilroy was suspicious, reminiscent of George Sampson's late plunge in the final of Britain's Got Talent.

Don't get caught out by this.

Tuesday, 25 November 2008

Strictly Come Dancing: Yahoo Poll Update



Apologies for the funny X-axis - it is not linear, I will sort this out soon. I still feel Tom is the likely winner of the series.

Monday, 24 November 2008

Joe Swash: To back or not to back?

Joe is the strongest favourite in years in IACGMOOH. He has played a flawless game so far and looks a comfortable winner even at short odds.

However, I am not backing him. IACGMOOH is historically a very unstable show to bet on. It is even harder without a live feed to watch.

Matt Willis came from nowhere on the last night to win and it could happen again. Joe's odds offer very little value and should be ignored. My advice? Hold fire until this time next week on the winners market and concentrate on taking a contrarian approach in the eviction markets. Myself? I have had a few quid on David (could do well) at well over 100's.

Weekend Review

Quick post as late for work. A good weekend for Strictly Betting with three of four of the line bets coming in. The Strictly judges have been very poor this year in my opinion with marked inconsistencies. Tom is the best dancer by a mile but they are trying to engineer a close competition.

John Sergeant did not dance on Saturday and I was worried when Betfair settled my bets as losers. However, I emailed them beforehand to clarify what would happen if he didn't dance as the reply said his bets would be voided. I emailed them about the losing bets and they refunded the bets I still have them down as losers. If you lost money on him - complain, their wording was confusing and inaccurate.

The whole market should have been voided when he withdrew and restarted afterwards.

However, I can't complain as SCD is the number one betting show in my opinion.

Saturday, 22 November 2008

Strictly Come Dancing: No lose tip

Right, coz I like you lot, here is a little tip.

If John gets given a score tonight it counts, if he doesn't, his bets are void.

I have checked this with Betfair and it is 100% correct.

I am a few hundred green on both.

Friday, 21 November 2008

Strictly Come Dancing: Week 10

Boylesports line betting is out and here are my stand out bets after watching It Takes Two.

Rachel and Vincent average 33.33 in Ballroom and have showed marked improvement in rcent weeks. I like the over 33.5 for their Foxtrot.

Austin and Erin have averaged 31.67 for Latin. The 34.5 line looks a big ask.

Lisa and Brendan are confident this week. They average 35.33 for Ballroom and should pass 33.5 doing the Quickstep.

Finally, Tom and Camilla have a big ask at over 34.5 but I think they will do it. I think Tom is most likely to get a 10 of all the dancers this week.

Good luck, whatever you do.

Wednesday, 19 November 2008

ITV lend a hand

This cheeky little link is to the IACGMOOH Celeb Tracker. It is explained rather nicely by the clipping on the left.

It goes without saying that this is a great way to see who is getting the most exposure. This will be useful in all markets.

Thank you ITV, you have saved us a lot of work! Go take a look.

Tuesday, 18 November 2008

Tom Chambers to win Strictly Come Dancing

I haven't checked the Yahoo Strictly Polls in a while. People were not voting much and so I thought it wasn't worth looking at.

Tonight I did, and boy things are changing. The graph below shows a snapshot of votes on certain dates. I do realise there is a big gap in the last two dates but the key thing is Tom Chambers gradient. He was a nonentity at the start but has accelerated to third top and if you extrapolate the gradient he will go higher still. This is a series winning trend in my opinion.

I think chinless Tom is the best all round dancer in the competition but I was concerned about his popularity. This allays those fears. He now has the hallmark of a winner.

John Sergeant is of course top and running away but he will probably get eliminated during the semi stage with some cheeky vote-rigging by the judges - Anyway, I have him onside massively and advised you to do the same a few weeks ago. I have also closed out of my Jodie bet with a very small loss (£2).

I am excited about this although I am annoyed I closed out of my early bet on him. I was fiddling for no reason.

Monday, 17 November 2008

This would be nice on your desktop!

Harvest Media is the company behind the voting on most of our TellyBetting shows. The website is as expected but it does show a screenshot of the software that handles the phone votes. You could make some serious cash with that installed and working.

Saturday, 15 November 2008

Profit is Profit

Mixed stuff.

In Strictly, Christine came good in the line betting, netting a tasty profit. The BBC changed the supposed running order. This meant Tom became an instant 'no bet' for a bottom two slot. I did lose some cash on Jodie being in the bottom two but not a not.

Meanwhile over on ITV, Ruth avoided eviction, meaning more profit. Alexandra avoided being in the bottom two and I lost on that one.

Alexandra is causing me some trouble. All my models have her down as unpopular - I am concerned.

Never mind. Earning money watching TV is a great feeling.

Friday, 14 November 2008

Operation 'Get John Out'

I theorised last Sunday that this week would be 'Operation Get John Out.' Looking at the apparent running order, I am right:

  • John & Kristina — American Smooth
  • Tom & Camilla — Salsa
  • Christine & Matthew — Waltz
  • Lisa & Brendan — Samba
  • Austin & Erin — Tango
  • Cherie & James — Cha-cha-cha
  • Jodie & Ian — Quickstep
  • Rachel & Vincent - Rumba
The interesting thing here is the thought that if this is a subtle and concerted effort to get John out, are the other weaker contestants phone-vote wise going last? Rachel being in the last two suggests it might be. If so, this order reveals a lot. If Christine isn't bottom two, we can deduce she is very popular. Jodie and Rachel to go would be the bets (pending running order) for the next week or two.

However, if John is very popular and gets loads of votes Tom could be the bet for botttom two. The Google Trends graph at the top backs this up - click on it for a better look. Remember, this is Bottom Two not To Go (the judges will keep Tom over virtually anyone). The running order may also change, so don't bet the house!

Please leave your thoughts. I am very interested to hear them.

Strictly Come Dancing Week 9

Christine Bleakley to score over 31.5 at Boylesports is my pick this week. The Waltz is traditionally a high scoring dance and she looked good on It Takes Two today. The rest of Boylesports line betting odds look well placed - their odds makers are catching up!

Thursday, 13 November 2008

I'm A Celebrity Win Market Betting Odds

Found a good bet at William Hill. Any Other to win at 12's looks real value. Why?

Up to now they have tended to be funnymen who do well on the whole.

Christopher Biggins, Dean Gaffney, Vic Reeves and Cannon and Ball were late entries.

You will be able to trade out at a profit and it is probable you will get two entries for the price of one as well.

John Sargeant and Daniel Evans:Is there room for both?


Fine men the pair, but are the two 'novelty' acts going to take votes from each other? The other way of looking at this is asking when one goes, will the other get a massive vote boost? It certainly could be a consideration.

Web Traffic Update

Interesting shifts in the Youtube upload chart this week.



Blue represents the uploads per artist last week, red for this week. Firstly, the huge press coverage seems to have given the competition a big shot in the arm as all uploads are up massively.

The ones that stand out are Ruth and also to a lesser extent, Eoghan. Ruth has had a massive surge in upoads in the last week. I realise some will be due to the sing-off but any exposure is good exposure in my opinion. Bar the girlbands, the bottom two have flitted around a bit (probably due to running order) and I suspect it will continue this week.



Again, Alexandra is not a finalist going on Web Traffic alone.

How to bet then? Firstly, I will probably lay Ruth to go this week on Betfair (assuming she will get a later slot). I will have a bet on Ruth to win it at 28's also on Betfair - the Google Trends graph above also shows massively increased interest. I will also reduce liability on JLS netting a tasty 25% profit but keeping some powder dry.

Finally, Alexandra for bottom two is going to come in this week.